ADM · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bearish

Archer Daniels Midland

Reported November 4, 2025

30-second summary

30-second take: ADM's Q4-loaded recovery thesis broke this quarter. Management cut FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance from ~$4.00 to $3.25–$3.50 — a ~16% reduction at the midpoint — explicitly citing continued softness in global soybean crush margins versus the $60–$70/mt range guided just 90 days ago. Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.92 was roughly in line with the implied $0.83 path, but the previously promised Q4 step-up has been deferred; management now points to 2026 as the "more constructive environment" and admits it is "difficult to predict the timing" of structural biofuel demand recovery.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$0.92

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$20.37B

+2.2% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

6.2%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$20.37B	+2.2%	$21.17B	-3.8%
EPS	$0.92	—	$0.93	-1.1%
Gross margin	6.2%	—	6.5%	-25bps

Guidance

Company slashed full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance by ~16% (from ~$4.00 to $3.25–$3.50), citing continued weakness in global soybean crush margins and margin compression; cost savings and multi-year efficiency programs disclosed but insufficient to offset near-term margin deterioration.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
2025 CapEx	FY 2025	$1.3 billion to $1.5 billion	—
2025 Cost Savings Target	FY 2025	$200 to $300 million	—
3-5 Year Aggregate Cost Savings Target	FY 2025	$500 to $750 million	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	~$4.00	$3.25 - $3.50	-$0.50 to -$0.75 (midpoint lowered from $4.00 to $3.375, a -15.6% reduction)	Lowered
Ethanol EBITDA Margins	FY 2025	mid single digit decline for full year 2025 vs prior year	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Ag Services & Oilseeds	$15.613B	+3.5%
Carbohydrate Solutions	$2.734B	-6.0%
Nutrition	$1.916B	+4.6%
Ag Services segment operating profit growth	+78%	—
Animal Nutrition segment operating profit growth	+79%	—

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Oilseeds processed (Q3)	8,803 thousand metric tons
Corn processed (Q3)	4,666 thousand metric tons

Profitability

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Total Segment Operating Profit	$845 million
Adjusted EBITDA (trailing four quarters)	$3,787 million
Adjusted Return on Invested Capital (trailing four quarters)	6.7%
Cash Flows from Operations (YTD)	$5.8 billion

Management tone

Q1: Policy tailwinds coming → Q2: H2 recovery loaded into Q4 → Q3: Recovery deferred to 2026

The crush margin anchor that underwrote the Q2 guide has been abandoned in a single quarter. Last quarter management gave investors a specific Q4 soybean crush range of $60–70/mt and a parallel $55–65/mt canola range. This quarter management said directly in prepared remarks: "We are expecting continued softness in global soybean crush margins, which is a step down from our expectations last quarter when we were expecting global soybean margins to be in the range of approximately $60 to $70 per metric ton." That is one of the cleanest single-quarter guide rescissions you will see from a large-cap industrial — and it dismantles the recovery framework the stock has been trading on since August.

Biofuel policy has shifted from "thesis anchor" to "unpredictable timing." In Q2, management cited the 45Z extension and the proposed RBO as already moving soybean oil prices and crush margins — observable, near-term tailwinds. This quarter the framing is: "Given the deferral in US biofuel policy and other global movements, it is difficult to predict the timing of when we will see a structural increase in biofuel demand." The catalyst that was supposed to land in Q4 now sits behind a policy timeline management itself refuses to commit to.

The recovery horizon has been pushed out and reframed as macro-dependent. Q2 framed recovery as operational and self-help-driven, with policy as the accelerant. This quarter management says: "We expect 2026 will offer a more constructive environment for both the industry and the American farmer." The introduction of a new $500–750M three-to-five-year aggregate cost savings program — alongside reaffirmation of the $200–300M 2025 target — reads less like fresh ambition and more like an admission that structural cost takeout has to do work that cyclical margins won't.

Digital strategy quietly retrenched. Management disclosed a pivot away from "large global implementations" toward "regional and more agile projects." Small in dollar terms but notable in posture: this is a company simplifying its bets, not extending them.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Policy uncertainty delaying biofuel demand recoverySelf-help cost reduction agenda execution (on track for $200-300M in 2025)Working capital and inventory optimization (reduced $3.2B YTD)Portfolio simplification and portfolio optimization across segmentsHand-to-mouth buying behavior from customers and reluctant farmer selling2026 optimism contingent on policy clarity and China trade deal finalization

Risks management surfaced:

U.S. biofuel policy deferral and ongoing uncertainty around RVO finalizationGlobal trade evolution and reduced biofuel production impacting crush marginsSoftness in global demand for sweeteners and starches affecting carbohydrate solutionsGovernment shutdown delaying EPA biofuel policy decisionChina trade deal timing and specific terms remain unresolved

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q3 adjusted EPS lands near the implied ~$0.83. Q3 adjusted EPS came in at $0.92, slightly above the ~$0.83 implied by the prior $4.00 anchor. But the FY guide was cut anyway — meaning Q4 is now expected to land materially below the ~$1.44 the prior framework implied. The Q3 print held; the Q4 expectation collapsed.

Resolved negatively

Final RVO numbers and SRE treatment from EPA. Not resolved by the agency, and management now explicitly cites the government shutdown delaying EPA biofuel policy decisions. The crush margin expansion that was conditional on these confirmations has been removed from the FY guide.

Resolved negatively

Decatur East production ramp confirmation. Management noted the Decatur East plant is "returning to plant utilization rate" and is expected to partially offset Q4 seasonal softness in Flavors, but did not requantify the $100M 2026 bridge committed to in Q2.

Continue monitoring

Ag Services Q4 commentary on North American harvest pace and export flows. Ag Services segment operating profit grew +78% YoY in Q3 — the strongest operational result in the print — but management's qualitative commentary on Q4 export flows is constrained by the same policy and trade uncertainty (China deal unresolved) that is now suppressing the rest of the business. The "strong crops" leg of the Q4 thesis is not visibly intact.

Resolved negatively

Whether nutrition operating profit growth continues to outpace the rest of the portfolio. Yes — Animal Nutrition segment operating profit grew +79% YoY, extending the multi-quarter margin expansion story. Nutrition segment revenue +4.6% YoY remains the only secular grower.

Resolved positively

10-K filing confirmation of material weakness remediation. Not addressed on this print; resolution comes with the 10-K filing.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q4 adjusted EPS lands above ~$0.70 (the floor implied by the low end of the new $3.25 FY guide, YTD adjusted EPS through Q3 plus this implied Q4). A miss against even the lowered guide would force another reset and put the 2026 "constructive environment" framing under immediate pressure.

Whether management restores a numeric crush margin range for 2026 on the Q4 call. The withdrawal of the $60–70/mt soybean and $55–65/mt canola ranges, and the withdrawal of the ethanol EBITDA margin guide, leaves investors without any quantitative anchor for the 2026 recovery thesis. A new numeric framework on the Q4 call is the minimum needed to rebuild credibility.

EPA RVO finalization timing and SRE treatment post-shutdown. Management has now explicitly tied biofuel demand recovery to policy clarity it cannot date. Any RVO announcement before the Q4 print would be the single largest catalyst for ADM into 2026.

CapEx Q4 spend within the $408–608M window. A spend at the high end signals operational confidence; a pullback to the low end would signal management is preserving cash against further margin weakness.

Whether Animal Nutrition operating profit growth (+79% YoY) sustains. This is now the only segment carrying a coherent secular growth narrative; if it breaks, the entire ADM thesis becomes a cyclical bet on crush margins recovering on an unknown timeline.

China trade deal finalization and any specific soybean export commitments. Management flagged this as a 2026 catalyst; quantified terms — calendar vs. marketing year, sold vs. shipped — would materially shift Ag Services run-rate.

10-K material weakness remediation validation. Auditor sign-off at year-end remains the final governance gate.

Sources

ADM Q3 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed 2025-11-04 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708425000049/adm-ex991_20250930xq3.htm
ADM Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (management prepared remarks and Q&A)
ADM Q2 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2025-08-05)

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