ADM · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Archer Daniels Midland

Reported February 3, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: ADM closed FY2025 with adjusted EPS of $3.43, landing inside the lowered $3.25–$3.50 range set in Q3 but more than 14% below the original ~$4.00 anchor. Management opened FY2026 with a $3.60–$4.25 adjusted EPS guide — a $0.65 spread that explicitly capitalizes on U.S. biofuel policy clarity for the high end and embeds a continuation of structural softness in starches and sweeteners at the low end. Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.87 was bracketed by a 17% YoY revenue decline in Ag Services & Oilseeds, an 81% YoY collapse in crushing operating profit for the full year, and a nutrition segment still earning only $78M of segment operating profit on $1.79B of revenue. The "constructive 2026 environment" management has been pointing to for two quarters is now a guide — but with no numeric crush margin anchor and explicit deference to policy timing, conviction remains low.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.87

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$18.56B

-13.7% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

6.5%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$18.56B	-13.7%	$20.37B	-8.9%
EPS	$0.87	—	$0.92	-5.4%
Gross margin	6.5%	—	6.2%	+27bps

Guidance

ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $3.60–$4.25 (up 5–24% YoY from FY2025's $3.43 actual), with growth contingent on U.S. biofuel policy clarity; reaffirmed capital and cost-savings targets while signaling flat Carbohydrate Solutions and improving Nutrition and AS&O segments in 2026.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY2025	$3.25 to $3.50	$3.43	in-line (midpoint of prior range)	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	$3.60 to $4.25	+5.0% to +23.9% YoY
Capital Expenditures	FY2026	$1.3 to $1.5 billion	—
Effective Tax Rate	FY2026	18% to 20%	—
AS&O Segment Operating Profit	FY2026	Year-over-year segment operating profit growth expected	—
Carbohydrate Solutions Segment Operating Profit	FY2026	Expected to remain relatively flat	—
Nutrition Segment	FY2026	Expected to continue trajectory of stronger organic growth and execution	—
Crush Margins	Q1 FY2026	Expected to be similar to Q4 2025	—
Carbohydrate Solutions Trends	Q1 FY2026	Similar demand softness in starches and sweeteners; ethanol margins tempered by higher industry run rates	—
Nutrition Segment	Q1 FY2026	Continued improvement with revenue growth and specialty ingredients recovery, partially offset by employee incentive compensation favorability in Q1 2025	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Ag Services & Oilseeds	$14.012B	-17.0%
Carbohydrate Solutions	$2.641B	-3.9%
Nutrition	$1.786B	+0.7%
Ag Services & Oilseeds Segment Operating Profit	$444M	—
Carbohydrate Solutions Segment Operating Profit	$299M	—
Nutrition Segment Operating Profit	$78M	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Oilseeds Processed Volumes	9,380 thousand metric tons
Corn Processed Volumes	4,664 thousand metric tons

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Total Segment Operating Profit	$821M
Adjusted ROIC	6.3%
Operating Cash Flow (before working capital)	$2.7B

Management tone

Q1: Policy tailwinds coming → Q2: H2 recovery loaded into Q4 → Q3: Recovery deferred to 2026 → Q4: 2026 EPS guided, but high end "highly predicated" on policy

The recovery thesis has progressed from "coming" to "guided" but lost specificity along the way. Two quarters ago management committed to specific Q4 crush margin ranges of $60–70/mt soybean and $55–65/mt canola. One quarter ago those ranges were withdrawn. This quarter management refuses to quantify crush margins at all for FY2026, telling BMO's Andrew Strelzyk they cannot isolate specific assumptions due to policy uncertainty. From the call: "Our current outlook for adjusted EPS in 2026 is a range between $3.60 and $4.25, which reflects growth over 2025 and appropriately captures the fluidity in timing and market response as global trade and biofuel policies continue to evolve." The $0.65 spread is the new framework — and "fluidity" is the operative word.

Carbohydrate Solutions has shifted from cyclical soft patch to acknowledged structural change. A year ago S&S was framed as a stable category waiting for normalization. This quarter management said directly: "Strength in ethanol is expected to offset the continued softness in SNS projected from a continuation of the same consumer behavior trends we experienced in 2025." That is an acknowledgment — the first explicit one — that packaged-goods consumption weakness is not cyclical noise but a behavior shift the company must offset operationally, with the FY2026 guide of "flat" essentially codifying it.

Insurance proceeds tailwind has fully rolled off. Q4 2024 included $46M of insurance proceeds in Nutrition that did not recur. Across the full year the segment is up only marginally ex-insurance and down meaningfully with insurance. The previous Animal Nutrition +79% YoY growth narrative — the cleanest secular story in the ADM thesis a quarter ago — is no longer being volunteered as a headline. Management now talks about "specialty ingredients recovery" instead, a much narrower claim.

The cost program has shifted from optional ambition to required offset. Heather Jones at Heather Jones Research pressed on why ADM has lagged crush peers in 2025 and management attributed the gap explicitly to higher North American manufacturing costs (energy, labor, contractors) and pointed to the $500–750M cost program as the unlock. That program is no longer a multi-year optionality story — it is now the variable that has to deliver to bridge the FY2026 guide if crush margins disappoint.

Q&A confidence registered notably lower than prepared remarks. Three separate analysts (BMO, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley) attempted to extract specific quantification of the $4.25 high-end scenario — crush margin assumptions, post-RVO run-rate, 2027 implications. Management declined every time, citing policy and market uncertainty. For a company whose own guide spans $0.65 of EPS, that refusal to bracket the high end is itself the answer.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Pending U.S. biofuel policy clarity as gating factor for 2026 performanceConsumer demand weakness in packaged goods pressuring starches and sweetenersCrush margin compression offsetting volume gainsNutrition segment recovery driven by flavors and specialty ingredientsPortfolio optimization and cost savings ($200M achieved, $500-750M targeted)Decarbonization and innovation as long-term growth drivers

Risks management surfaced:

Timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity remains uncertainSize of RBO requirement and SRE offset still under evaluationPersistent structural weakness in consumer packaged goods demandGlobal trade environment challenges and China policy fluidityCrush margin environment may not recover to prior levels

Q&A highlights

Manav Gupta · UBS

When RVO finally arrives, do you expect material jump in operating rates and processing rates of biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities given improving renewable diesel margins and rising RINs?

Management acknowledges RVO will be positive but timing is uncertain, dependent on government decision and market digestion. Due to forward-selling nature of business (60-70% sold into next quarter), benefits likely realized July onwards if policy enacted end of Q1. Policy clarity expected to drive vegetable oil pulls into biofuels in US, Brazil, and globally.

Benefits from RVO likely July onwards if policy enacted end of Q1Business forward-sold 60-70% into following quarterB16 blending expected to start March or June in BrazilFive identified growth platforms over next five years

Heather Jones · Heather Jones Research

Why has ADM's crush performance lagged public comps significantly in 2025 despite improved runtime and operations execution, given RVO will be the biggest influencer on results?

Management attributes underperformance to higher manufacturing costs (energy, manpower, contractors) rather than operational performance. North American costs post-COVID remain elevated vs. pre-COVID levels and versus rest of world. Company has productivity plans underway with $500-700M cost reduction target that includes manufacturing cost productivity as major component.

Manufacturing costs higher than historical levelsNorth America labor costs elevated post-COVID$500-700M cost reduction program with manufacturing productivity as key unlockOnline time has recovered and performing well

Andrew Strelzyk · BMO Capital Markets

What are specific crush margin assumptions on the high end of guidance and implied post-RVO EPS run rate versus base case?

Management declines to pinpoint specific crush margin numbers due to RVO timing/magnitude uncertainty and market adoption variability. High-end assumes RVO timing/adoption acceleration, strengthening consumer demand, and RINs movement. Board crush has already moved 40-50 cents for December 2026. Cautions that board crush must translate to cash margins; provides wide guidance range given multiple uncontrollable factors.

Board crush moved 40-50 cents higher for December 2026Cannot isolate specific crush margin assumptions due to policy uncertaintyHigh-end assumes faster RVO adoption and stronger consumer demandMark-to-market timing impacts quarterly results unpredictably

Salvatore Tiano · Bank of America

Does the $4.25 high-end guidance imply $1.30 per quarter EPS starting July from RVO benefits, and could this lead to low-five EPS run rate in 2027 on a full-year basis?

Management declines to predict exact EPS impact from RVO benefits. Notes multiple factors drive high-end guidance beyond crush margins: consumer demand strength, sweeteners/starches dynamics, and ethanol margins. References five long-term pillars for growth but states it's 'unfair' to predict timing between 2025-2027 by quarter given multiple factors at play.

Cannot predict specific EPS impact from RVO implementationHigh-end depends on crush margins, consumer demand, sweetener/starch margins, and ethanol marginsFive growth pillars over long-termCapital allocation focused on cost discipline, cash management, and investment in growth platforms

Stephen Haynes · Morgan Stanley

How did sweetener contracting season progress, how much of CARB Solutions softness is margin vs. volume, and what is explicit uplift quantified from 45C or 45Q?

Contract season went well but with softness in volumes impacting margins. Cannot quantify exact margin vs. volume split due to elimination of big contract cliffs. 45Z uplift estimated at approximately $100 million but subject to multiple variables including carbon intensity by plant, prevailing wage rules, and industry pricing response. Final guidance still pending from OMB.

Sweetener volume weakness approximately 5-7% for liquid sweeteners45Z estimated benefit approximately $100 millionVariables for 45Z include carbon intensity, prevailing wage, carbon sequestration amounts, and production volumesFinal 45Z guidance cleared White House OMB, expected soon

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 adjusted EPS lands above ~$0.70. Q4 adjusted EPS came in at $0.87, comfortably above the implied floor. Combined with $3.43 FY adjusted EPS landing in the upper half of the $3.25–$3.50 range, the lowered Q3 guide held without a second reset.

Resolved positively

Whether management restores a numeric crush margin range for 2026. No. Management explicitly declined to quantify crush margin assumptions in Q&A, framing Q1 2026 as "similar to Q4 2025" qualitatively and citing policy uncertainty as the reason for the $0.65 EPS spread. The 2026 thesis still has no numeric crush anchor.

Resolved negatively

EPA RVO finalization timing and SRE treatment. Still not finalized at the time of the print. Management says benefits likely realize from July 2026 onward if policy lands by end of Q1, but the company has no visibility into actual timing — the high end of the FY2026 guide remains contingent on a policy decision ADM does not control.

Continue monitoring

CapEx Q4 spend within the $408–608M window. Not explicitly disclosed on the print as a Q4 stand-alone figure; FY2025 capex landed within the $1.3–1.5B framework and the same range was reaffirmed for FY2026, signaling steady capital intensity rather than a defensive pullback.

Continue monitoring

Whether Animal Nutrition operating profit growth (+79% YoY) sustains. No clean disclosure at the segment-detail level; Nutrition total segment operating profit of $78M and revenue +0.7% YoY suggest the prior quarter's Animal Nutrition momentum has not extended at the same magnitude. Management's framing has shifted from animal nutrition margin expansion to "specialty ingredients recovery.".

Resolved negatively

China trade deal finalization and specific soybean export commitments. Management referenced "recent progress with China trade relations" as supporting the constructive 2026 environment but did not quantify shipped or sold soybean volumes. The catalyst remains qualitative.

Continue monitoring

10-K material weakness remediation validation. Not addressed on the print; 10-K filing pending.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether EPA finalizes the RVO before the Q1 print. Management has explicitly tied the high end of the $3.60–$4.25 FY range to policy timing; a Q1 announcement would force a guide revision (likely upward) and a refusal to update would suggest the high end is unreachable.

Whether Q1 adjusted EPS lands above ~$0.75 (rough quarter share of the $3.60 low end). Given management's Q1 framing of "similar to Q4 2025" crush margins and ongoing S&S softness, a print materially below would indicate the low end of the FY guide is already at risk.

Whether management quantifies the 45Z benefit beyond the ~$100M estimate. Once OMB clears final 45Z guidance, the company should be able to bracket carbon intensity per plant and translate to a hardened number. Vagueness post-clearance would signal the benefit is smaller than the estimate.

Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit run-rate vs. the FY2025 base of $299M. "Relatively flat" guidance combined with explicit S&S structural weakness creates downside risk if ethanol margins are more tempered than guided.

Nutrition segment operating profit recovery off the $78M FY2025 base. With insurance proceeds rolled off and animal nutrition momentum no longer being volunteered as a headline, the segment needs to show specialty ingredients recovery in dollar terms — not just qualitative commentary.

Board crush vs. cash margin conversion. Management disclosed board crush moved 40–50 cents higher for December 2026 but cautioned this may not translate to cash margins. The Q1 print is the first chance to see whether realized crush tracks the futures move.

10-K material weakness sign-off. Auditor validation at year-end remains the final governance gate; resolution is overdue relative to management's prior framing.

Sources

ADM Q4 2025 / FY2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed 2026-02-03 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000005/adm-ex991_20251231xq4.htm
ADM Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (management prepared remarks and Q&A)
ADM Q3 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2025-11-04)
ADM Q2 2025 brief (tapebrief, 2025-08-05)

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