AXP · Q3 2025 Earnings
BullishAmerican Express
Reported October 17, 2025
30-second summary
Revenue grew 11% YoY to $18.43B and GAAP EPS landed at $4.14, with management raising the FY2025 revenue growth floor from 8% to 9% and the EPS low end from $15.00 to $15.20. The signal that matters: the new Platinum refresh — launched ~3 weeks before the call — is running at twice the pre-refresh acquisition rate, which management called "the strongest start we've seen for a US Platinum Card Refresh." This is the first guidance raise of the year and the tone shift from "reaffirmed with confidence" in Q2 to "raising on momentum" in Q3 is the cleanest read of the print.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q3 FY2025
$4.14
Revenue
Q3 FY2025
$18.43B
+11.0% YoY
Key financials
Q3 FY2025| Metric | Q3 FY2025 | YoY | Q2 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.43B | +11.0% | $17.86B | +3.2% |
| EPS | $4.14 | — | $4.08 | +1.5% |
Guidance
Raised FY2025 revenue growth floor and EPS low-end guidance on strong Q3 performance and Platinum Card Refresh momentum.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
Changes to prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | New guide | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth rate | FY2025 | 8% to 10% | 9% to 10% | +1 point at low end | Raised |
| EPS | FY2025 | $15.00 to $15.50 | $15.20 to $15.50 | +$0.20 at low end | Raised |
Segment performance
Q3 FY2025| Segment | Q3 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Consumer Services | $8.856B | +11.0% |
| Commercial Services | $4.281B | +7.0% |
| International Card Services | $3.336B | +14.0% |
| Global Merchant and Network Services | $1.972B | +7.0% |
Capital & returns
Q3 FY2025| Segment | Q3 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Return on Average Equity | 35.9% |
| Return on Average Common Equity | 37.3% |
| Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio | 10.5% |
| Tier 1 Leverage Ratio | 9.5% |
Other KPIs
Q3 FY2025| Segment | Q3 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Billed Business | $421.0B |
| Network Volumes | $479.2B |
| Cards-in-Force | 151.2M |
| Proprietary Cards-in-Force | 86.0M |
Management tone
Q2 narrative arc: Macro defensive → resilience claim → Q3 raise on validated momentum.
Last quarter management explicitly reaffirmed the January guide despite an upgraded confidence narrative — they banked the upside rather than commit to it. This quarter they took the raise. The shift in language is direct: "We're raising the guidance we provided in January based on our strong performance through the first three quarters." The Q2 framing was "remarkable resilience"; the Q3 framing is "momentum we have at this point in the year." That progression — from defending the base case to extending it — is the cleanest tone signal in the print.
The Platinum refresh narrative compressed from a 24-month P&L story into an immediate validation event. In Q2 management walked through refresh mechanics analytically — fee revenue amortizes, costs hit immediately, full revenue impact takes two years. This quarter, three weeks post-launch, the framing pivoted to: "the initial customer demand and engagement are exceeding our expectations. In fact, while it's still early, this is the strongest start we've seen for a US Platinum Card Refresh… new Platinum account acquisitions are running at twice the level before the refresh." The hedge ("while it's still early") is still there but it now precedes a superlative, not a caveat.
The card-fee narrative inverted from "moderating" to "moderating before inflection." Management was clear that card fee growth continues to slow in the near term but will inflect upward in 2026 as refreshes lap. This is the cleanest example of the company telling investors to look through Q4/early-2026 P&L noise to a 2026 revenue tailwind — and it's the framing that supports the maintained mid-teens EPS growth aspiration that Goldman pressed on in Q&A.
The customer-base narrative widened the aperture. In Q2 the Millennial/Gen Z story was a credit-quality flywheel argument. This quarter management explicitly reframed Platinum from "affluent frequent traveler product" to "leading premium lifestyle card" — with millennials and Gen Z now 36% of spend. This is positioning for a structurally larger TAM, not just defending the existing book.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Sanjay Sakarani · KBW
Asked about path forward for customer spending given resiliency and acceleration across corporate and small business, and how to model a ~$80M gain related to Global Business Travel Group investment.
Management indicated billings have been relatively stable over 6-7 quarters with no indication of slowdown. Highlighted strength in travel & entertainment, airlines (+5% this quarter vs flat last quarter), premium airline spending (+14%), and strong U.S. consumer business (+9%). Confirmed the $80M gain from 30% ownership stake in Global Business Travel Group merger, representing ~5 percentage points of 17% growth in service fees line.
Ryan Nash · Goldman Sachs
Requested detailed financial impact of platinum card refresh on card fees and VCEs, and confirmation that mid-teens EPS growth target remains achievable during refresh period.
Management confirmed no impact to mid-teens EPS growth aspirations. Explained that card fee increases are delayed and amortized over 12 months while benefits are immediate, creating near-term pressure on COGS/MS. Signaled expected step-up in costs in Q4 2025 and 2026, but stated company planned with these expenses in mind. Maintained 10%+ revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth aspirations for coming years.
Mark DeVries · Deutsche Bank
Requested quantification of platinum refresh contribution to billings acceleration and color on consumer vs. business product strength.
Management indicated platinum refresh impact on total billings growth is small, with strength driven by macro factors (airline, T&E recovery). However, specific partner credits (Rezzy, Lululemon) showed 2x increase in customer count. Emphasized total billings impact of specific partners is not material despite customer volume gains.
Don Fandetti · Wells Fargo
Asked about small business/SME growth drivers, whether organic growth is stabilizing, and risks from fintech competition.
Management reported good acquisition trends and organic growth starting to turn around, especially in small end and mid-market. Attributed previous weakness to larger COVID-cohort transactions moving off cards, now growing past that period. Acknowledged competitive fintech landscape and announced Centr acquisition and plans to launch Centr-integrated business platinum product next year.
Craig Moore · FT Partners
Asked about source of platinum refresh customers (competitive takeaway vs. upgrades vs. new premium segment entrants) and international strength by geography.
Management stated it's too early to determine customer source mix (premium card holders, first-time premium users, etc.) but expressed satisfaction with both upgrade and new acquisition volumes. On international, reported very strong growth across board, with 3 of top 5 markets at ~18% growth. Noted continued progress on 75% LIF coverage city strategy and ongoing Europe focus.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Q4 cardholder services expense step-up magnitude. Management explicitly guided to a Q4 2025 and 2026 cost ramp from refresh benefit costs hitting before fee amortization. Watch whether OPEX growth moves out of the mid-single-digit FY framework, and whether Q4 EPS prints in the upper half of the implied $4.00–$4.30 range needed to hit the raised $15.20–$15.50 FY.
Refresh customer-source decomposition. Management punted on whether Platinum new accounts are competitive takeaways, upgrades, or new-to-premium. By Q4 the data set will be 4+ months deep — watch whether the mix gets disclosed and whether the 2x acquisition pace holds or normalizes.
Card fee growth trajectory. Card fees +20% in Q2 was the anchor of the premium thesis. Management said fees "continue to moderate before inflection in 2026." Watch the Q4 net card fee growth print — if it decelerates below ~15% the 2026 inflection narrative gets pulled forward in importance.
SMB organic growth sustainability. Small business +4% with management calling the trend "starting to turn around." Watch whether the Centr acquisition and early-2026 Business Platinum launch are accompanied by an acceleration in small-business billings, not just product announcements.
Initial FY2026 framing on January call. Management has now publicly anchored to 10%+ revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth as multi-year aspirations through the refresh cycle. The January 2026 print will be the first time those numbers get committed to as guidance rather than aspiration.
Sources
- American Express Q3 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.2), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496225000218/q325exhibit992.htm
- American Express Q3 2025 earnings call transcript and prepared remarks (management commentary and Q&A)
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