AXP · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

American Express

Reported January 30, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 10.4% YoY to $18.98B and GAAP diluted EPS came in at $3.53, bringing FY2025 revenue to $72.23B (+9.5%) — at the high end of the raised 9–10% guide — and FY2025 diluted EPS to $15.38, inside the $15.20–$15.50 guide. Management issued a formal FY2026 framework of 9–10% revenue growth and $17.30–$17.90 EPS, alongside a planned 16% dividend hike to $0.95/quarter. The signal that matters: FY net card fees reached a record ~$10B (+18% YoY), with Q4 +16% FX-adjusted, and management explicitly guided to card fee growth picking up as 2026 progresses, exiting the year in the high teens as Platinum renewals lap the new price point.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$3.53

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$18.98B

+10.4% YoY

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$18.98B	+10.4%	$18.43B	+3.0%
EPS	$3.53	—	$4.14	-14.7%

Guidance

American Express delivered Q4 FY2025 results in-line with prior guidance, with revenue growth of 10.4% YoY falling within the full-year 9-10% guided range; no forward guidance issued for Q1 FY2026.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	9% to 10% YoY growth (FY2025 full-year guidance)	$18.98 billion	in-line	Met
EPS	FY2025	$15.20 to $15.50	$3.53 (Q4 reported)	in-line	Met

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Consumer Services	$9.156B	+11.0%
Commercial Services	$4.398B	+6.7%
International Card Services	$3.496B	+16.9%
Global Merchant and Network Services	$2.039B	+7.7%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio	10.5%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Network Volumes	$506.2 billion
Billed Business (Card Member Spending)	$445.1 billion
Cards-in-Force	152.8 million
Proprietary Cards-in-Force	86.6 million
Return on Average Equity (ROE)	33.9%
Return on Average Common Equity (ROCE)	35.3%
Net Interest Yield	8.0%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q1 reaffirmed January guide → Q2 "remarkable resilience" → Q3 raise on Platinum momentum → Q4 deliver-and-commit (9–10% revenue / $17.30–$17.90 EPS for 2026, 16% dividend raise).

Management's tone this quarter was confident and committed: they delivered FY2025 inside guide, issued a formal FY2026 framework that maps to their long-term 10%-plus revenue / mid-teens EPS aspiration, and raised the dividend 16%. CFO Le Caillec characterized the guide as something the company is "committed to," with explicit room for movement between P&L lines as the year progresses.

What did shift is the funding mix for future EPS leverage. In response to JP Morgan's Rick Shane, Le Caillec said write-off rates near 2% are "pretty much at that limit" — meaning credit can no longer fund incremental marketing or rewards spend. The model now leans on operating-expense efficiency (OPEX/revenue down ~4pts since 2022, even as tech spend grows at an 11% CAGR) and premium mix shift, with FY2026 OPEX guided to mid-single-digit growth and marketing to low-single-digit growth. Bears who priced AXP for credit normalization should recalibrate; bulls who assumed continued credit tailwind should as well.

The mix-shift narrative moved from "happening" to "measurable." Eight percentage points more of U.S. consumer new card acquisitions are now fee-paying versus a year ago — the first time management has quantified the shift this cleanly. Combined with the $10B card fee milestone at +18% FY growth and the high-teens exit-rate guide for 2026 card fee growth, this is the bull case rendered in numbers rather than aspiration. Steve Squeri also flagged that acquisition incentives are at "some of the lowest levels in the last couple of years" — the cleanest counter to the "acquisition costs are inflating" narrative in the consumer-card category.

Q&A highlights

Ryan Nash · Goldman Sachs

Asked about the reallocation of marketing spend away from cashback products toward fee-paying products, particularly Platinum, and implications for results going forward.

Management emphasized they focus on revenue generation and ROI rather than card volume. Noted that 8 percentage points more of U.S. consumer new card acquisitions are now fee-paying, demonstrating improved marketing efficiency. Marketing investments are dynamically reallocated based on returns and product demand.

8 percentage point year-over-year increase in fee-paying product mix for U.S. consumer NCAsYear-over-year net new card additions flat at 100,000 cardsMarketing efficiency improvements reduce acquisition incentives to lowest levels in couple years

Erica Najarian · UBS

Asked whether the remix strategy toward fee-paying cards over time impacts card fee trajectory and moves toward the plus side of 10%+ revenue growth aspiration.

Management confirmed portfolio is slowly becoming more premium with Platinum growing very fast and driving higher spend growth. Card fees reached $10 billion annually and are expected to accelerate in 2026 as more Platinum members hit renewal anniversaries at new price point. Portfolio shift also reflected in best-in-class and stable credit metrics.

Card fees reached record $10 billion annually in 2025Current card fee growth rate is 16% (as of Q4)Card fee growth expected to pick up in latter part of 2026 as Platinum renewals accelerateDelinquency and write-off rates remain flat and below 2019 levels despite portfolio premium shift

Rick Shane · JP Morgan

Asked whether low credit costs in 2025 that enabled aggressive marketing/rewards spending will continue in 2026, and if further credit upside would result in additional investment or accrue to bottom line.

Management explained that credit metrics are near minimum sustainable levels (2% write-off rates). Company is offsetting credit benefits through improving operating expense efficiencies and continued technology investment (11% CAGR). Model balances various investment categories (VCE, marketing, technology) and operates with flexibility but guided to mid-teens EPS growth range.

Write-off rates at ~2%, described as 'pretty much at that limit'Technology spending CAGR of 11% (continuing to grow despite credit tailwinds)Operating expense efficiency gains in other areas offsetting credit benefitsMid-teens EPS growth guidance includes scenarios with over/underperformance across lines

Mark DeVries · Deutsche Bank

Asked about engagement and spend changes from existing customers following product refresh (like Platinum), timing of benefit realization, and contrast with new customers.

Management noted existing customers uptake new benefits slower than new customers but still quickly. Cited examples: Lululemon, Resi engagement, hotel credits adopted rapidly. New customers drawn to product immediately. Travel app launch was transformative, enabling 30% increase in travel bookings in Q4. Restaurant spending up 20% driven by Platinum/Gold cardholders with Resi.

Travel bookings up 30% in Q4 from Platinum app launchRestaurant spend up 20% for Resi restaurants (U.S. consumer Platinum/Gold cohort)Existing customers show inertia initially but then rapid engagement with new benefitsNew customers engage immediately upon acquisition based on product awareness

Brian Ferran · Truist

Asked whether cost to grow is becoming too expensive, whether any markets feel overheated, and whether investor concerns about elevated costs are accounting dynamics showing upfront costs with deferred benefits.

Management rejected premise that cost to grow is excessive. Emphasized consistent 4-5 year track record of 10% revenue growth + mid-teens EPS growth without short-term shortcuts. Noted they avoid non-economical portfolios, see co-brand benefits as 1+1=3, and look holistically at expense base impacts on leverage, credit, and marketing efficiency. Specific point: Platinum acquisition costs fell to 2-year lows in Q4 despite high competition.

Platinum acquisition costs at 2-year lows in Q4 despite competitive environmentConsistent guidance trajectory: 10% revenue growth + mid-teens EPS growth over 4-5 yearsLong-term view on customer value (20-year relationships) drives acquisition economicsHolistic expense approach balances VCE, marketing, technology, and operating leverage

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 cardholder services expense step-up magnitude. Q4 GAAP diluted EPS of $3.53 brought FY2025 diluted EPS to $15.38, inside the $15.20–$15.50 guide (close to midpoint). Cardholder services expense pressure landed as guided, consistent with the Q4 cost ramp management telegraphed last quarter.

Resolved positively

Refresh customer-source decomposition. Management did not disclose the upgrade vs. competitive-takeaway vs. new-to-premium mix; instead, they reframed the question around the 8pt increase in fee-paying share of U.S. consumer NCAs and acquisition incentives at multi-year lows. The mix question went unanswered but the cost economics improved.

Continue monitoring

Card fee growth trajectory. FY net card fees reached a record ~$10B (+18% YoY); Q4 +16% FX-adjusted, moderating as expected. Management explicitly guided to acceleration as 2026 progresses, exiting the year in the high teens. The 2026 inflection narrative held.

Resolved positively

SMB organic growth sustainability. Commercial Services posted +6.7% YoY in Q4. Management split the diagnosis: small business "really, really strong," middle market the source of softness — and noted industry-wide SMB sluggishness. Center-integrated commercial offering still slated for a mid-2026 launch. Status: Resolved negatively (middle market specifically)

Initial FY2026 framing on January call. Management issued formal FY2026 guidance: 9–10% revenue growth and $17.30–$17.90 EPS, plus a 16% dividend raise. The 10%-plus revenue / mid-teens EPS framework was committed to, not deferred.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Card fee growth pace ahead of the back-half inflection. Management guided to card fees exiting 2026 in the high teens. Watch whether Q1 and Q2 2026 card fee growth holds near 16% or moderates further before the renewal cohort hits. Material deceleration below ~14% in the first half would compress the inflection narrative.

Commercial Services trajectory and the middle-market story. Small business is strong; middle market is the drag. Watch whether the early/mid-2026 Center-integrated commercial offering arrives on time and whether Commercial Services revenue growth re-accelerates toward Consumer's +11% pace or stays stuck in the +6–7% band. The forthcoming commercial-strategy roadmap is the catalyst to track.

Operating expense growth as the new earnings lever. With credit at the floor and reserve releases unavailable as a 2026 tailwind, management guided FY2026 OPEX growth to the mid-single digits while tech spend keeps growing at an 11% CAGR. Watch whether total OPEX growth holds in the mid-single-digit band or breaks higher as Platinum benefits keep amortizing.

VCE-to-revenue ratio landing at ~44%. Management guided FY2026 VCE/revenue to around 44% (vs. 45% in Q4'25). This is the line where Platinum-refresh benefit economics show up. A drift higher would signal customer engagement running ahead of plan (good for revenue, pressure on near-term margin); a drift lower would signal engagement plateauing earlier than expected.

International Card Services durability above 15%. International posted +16.9% reported in Q4 — the fastest segment print of the quarter. Watch whether international momentum sustains that pace or reverts toward the consolidated 9–10% guide.

Sources

American Express Q4 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.2), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000037/q425exhibit992.htm
American Express Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and prepared remarks (management commentary and Q&A)

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