BMY · Q3 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Bristol Myers Squibb

Reported October 30, 2025

30-second summary

Revenue of $12.22B (+2% YoY Ex-FX) beat the moderating Legacy decline narrative again — Legacy fell just 13% Ex-FX in Q3 (vs. the -15% to -17% FY guide; YTD Legacy is -16%), while Growth Portfolio surged 17% to $6.86B with Eliquis +23%, Camzyos +88%, and Reblozyl +37%. Management raised FY25 revenue guidance by $750M at midpoint (low-end +$1.0B, high-end +$0.5B) to $47.5–$48.0B and doubled other income to ~$500M on royalty/licensing upside, while reaffirming the $16.5B opex envelope. The substance shifts to 2026: management quantified seven NMEs and seven LCM opportunities reading out in the next 12–24 months, putting the pipeline-credibility question that has hung over BMY squarely on the table.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.63

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$12.22B

+2.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

72.9%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

38.4%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$12.22B	+2.0%	$12.27B	-0.4%
EPS	$1.63	—	$1.46	+11.6%
Gross margin	72.9%	—	72.6%	+30bps
Operating margin	38.4%	—	40.4%	-200bps

Guidance

Raised FY2025 revenue guidance by $1.0B at midpoint to $47.5–$48.0B and increased other income expectation to $500M while reaffirming EPS, margin, and operating expense guidance.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revlimid Sales	FY2025	approximately $3 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY2025	$46.5B - $47.5B	$47.5B - $48.0B	+$1.0B at midpoint (from $47.0B to $47.75B)	Raised
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2025	$6.35 - $6.65	$6.40 - $6.60	+$0.05 at midpoint (from $6.50 to $6.50); range tightened by $0.10	Raised
Other Income/(Expense)	FY2025	~$250 million income	approximately $500 million income	+$250 million (from $250M to $500M)	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Gross Margin (approximately 72%), Operating Expenses (approximately $16.5 billion), Effective Tax Rate (approximately 18%), Legacy Portfolio Decline (approximately 15% to 17%)

Segment KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Growth Portfolio	$6.857B	+17.0%
Legacy Portfolio	$5.365B	-13.0%
Opdivo	$2.532B	+6.0%
Eliquis	$3.746B	+23.0%
Reblozyl	$0.615B	+37.0%
Camzyos	$0.296B	+88.0%
Growth Portfolio Revenue Growth (YoY)	17% (17% Ex-FX)	—
Legacy Portfolio Revenue Growth (YoY)	-13% (-13% Ex-FX)	—
Opdivo Revenue	$2,532M (up 6% YoY, Ex-FX 6%)	—

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
U.S.	$8.329B	+1.0%
International	$3.893B	+3.0%
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP)	72.9%	—
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)	38.4%	—
R&D Expenses (Non-GAAP)	$2,433M	—
SG&A Expenses (Non-GAAP)	$1,788M (down 10% YoY)	—
2025 Full-Year Revenue Guidance (Updated)	$47.5B - $48.0B	—

Management tone

Q2 framing → Q3 framing: "Defensive pipeline reset + opportunistic BD" → "Quantified catalyst calendar + infrastructure-first conviction."

Pipeline confidence moved from forward-looking optionality to a specific catalyst schedule. Last quarter management acknowledged recent study disappointments and pivoted to a generic "seven registration assets, seven lifecycle opportunities" framing. This quarter the same quantification got sharper and time-boxed: "The pace of pivotal readouts will accelerate in 2026. As a reminder, over the next 12 to 24 months alone, we expect data for seven new molecular entities and seven meaningful lifecycle management opportunities." The shift from defending misses to scheduling readouts is the cleanest tone change on the call — and the one most exposed to disconfirmation when ADEPT-2 prints by year-end.

Capital deployment moved ahead of clinical certainty. A quarter ago BD (BioNTech) was framed as a pipeline gap-filler. This quarter management is talking about a U.S. radiopharmaceutical manufacturing hub already producing Phase 3 doses for RAYZE-101 and tuck-ins (Orbital, Phylochem/OncoACP3): "we opened a U.S. manufacturing hub with the ability to deliver RAYZE's next-generation radiopharmaceutical therapies directly to patients within just three days of production." Building manufacturing infrastructure before approval certainty signals real conviction — or, more cynically, asset-side commitments that are now hard to walk back.

Cost discipline reframed from defense to enablement. Q2 introduced the additional $2B productivity initiative as flexibility for BD. This quarter, with opex down ~$100M YoY and on track to deliver $1B in net savings versus 2024, the framing has shifted to "agility to reinvest" — a more confident posture about funding the pipeline buildout without sacrificing the margin profile.

Long-term posture got more explicit. Management's prepared-remarks comment that "we feel even better about our longer-term growth potential" is unusually direct for a company whose 2026 Eliquis cliff has been the consensus overhang. The 10-medicines-by-end-of-decade framing puts a number on what was previously hand-wavy.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Accelerating near-term data catalysts (7 NMEs and 7 LCMs in 12-24 months)Growth portfolio momentum with multiple billion-dollar brands emergingProtein degradation and cell therapy platforms delivering clinical validationCost structure optimization enabling operational agility without sacrificing growthStrategic M&A to fill pipeline gaps (Orbital, Phylochem/OncoACP3)Long-term revenue potential of 10 new medicines by end of decade

Risks management surfaced:

Legacy portfolio declining 15-17% for full year with ongoing generic competition (Revlimid, Pomulus, Sprycel, Abraxane)Revlimid sales expectation at $3 billion reflecting patent loss impactData-dependent pipeline success requiring positive readouts on ADEPT-2 and CoBINFI studiesExecution risk on multiple simultaneous pivotal trials (milvexian three large Phase 3 trials, broad pipeline advancement)Commercial uptake execution risk for new launches (Coventry, Qvantix tracking but early stage)

Q&A highlights

Chris Schott · J.P. Morgan

Requested updates on ADEPT2 clinical site reviews and actions taken; asked about confidence levels in ADEPT1 and ADEPT4 relative to ADEPT2 given design differences; sought broader context on the ADEPT program for Alzheimer's disease psychosis.

Management reiterated ADEPT2 readout expected by end of 2024, stated they remain blinded to data, and expressed strong confidence in the overall COVID-19 development program based on external Lilly Day data, real-world schizophrenia experience, and internal ADEPT-1 lead-in and ADEPT-3 extension data. Christian clarified that ADEPT4 is similar to ADEPT2 (same patient population and primary endpoint) with readout projected next year, while ADEPT1 uses a different relapse prevention design. Emphasized 14 ongoing/activating studies with 10 pivotal, and plans to initiate studies in autism spectrum irritability next year.

ADEPT2 readout expected by end of 202414 studies ongoing or in activation process10 of those studies are pivotalThird pivotal study posted in bipolar mania

Jeff Meechan · Citi

Asked about Cabenfi reimbursement speed and prescriber depth in the U.S.; inquired about tipping points for demand and education needs. Also asked Christian about priorities and development approach for a diversified portfolio.

Management noted Cabenfi surpassed 2,400 TRXs weekly with continued steady growth and new trialists being added. Acknowledged entrenched market with first new mechanism in 30+ years. Stated 100% access across Medicare/Medicaid. Noted more work needed on breadth and depth of prescribing. Expanded field force in community and hospital settings. Tracking ahead of recently launched D2 analogs. Christian outlined focus on science, portfolio strength, and evolution of development organization through prioritization (science/execution/value), new ways of working with AI/novel tools, and talent building.

Surpassed 2,400 TRXs on weekly basisVirtually 100% access across Medicare and MedicaidFirst new mechanism approved in schizophrenia in 30+ yearsExpanded field force in community and hospital settings

Evan Siegerman · BMO Capital Markets

Asked about competitive landscape for PD-L1 VEGF combo following Harmony 6 data in squamous NSCLC; inquired whether BioNTech partnership confidence has increased and if it's too early to assess.

Management stated BioNTech partnership continues to perform well with tight development and commercial relationships. Noted Pomidamig has potential to become new standard of care; competitor data adds to conviction of broad development program. Highlighted multiple ongoing trials across solid tumors (NSCLC first-line, SCLC, TNBC first-line). Announced two new studies in first-line MSS-CRC and first-line gastric cancer. Focused on speed to market with goal of being first or second across indications; emphasized combining BMS commercial/operational capabilities with BioNTech's scientific expertise.

14 studies ongoing or in activation for Pomidamig10 of those studies are pivotalTNBC data to be presented at San Antonio Breast in DecemberTwo new studies posted on clinicaltrials.gov for first-line MSS-CRC and gastric cancer

David Asselin · Piper Sandler

Asked about key barriers to Cabenfi adoption (GI tolerability, twice-daily dosing, prescriber inertia); sought field feedback on what's preventing faster uptake.

Management reported positive physician and patient feedback post-adoption. Identified number one question from physicians is how to switch from D2 to Cabenfi. Noted robust peer-to-peer activities, introduction of real-world data, and phase four switch study readout in early next year to build physician confidence. Emphasized tracking ahead of recently launched D2 analogs historically. Expressed confidence in continued steady growth in schizophrenia with longer-term growth fueled by additional indications.

Just over one year on marketFirst new mechanism in 30+ yearsTracking ahead of recently launched D2 analogsPhase four switch study reads out early next year

Asad Haider · Goldman Sachs

Asked about cost savings trajectory and shape over next couple of years in context of R&D expenses for BNT327 Phase III programs and other pipeline movements; requested early thoughts on pipeline programs that management is particularly encouraged by.

Management emphasized balance between investing in pipeline/R&D to drive value and growth while maintaining disciplined financial management. David noted exiting 2025 with strong growth portfolio performance (up 16% YTD) with four products annualizing >$1B. Confirmed on track for $1B efficiency savings this year with clear line of sight to $2B target by 2027. Numerous Phase III programs completing next year and into 2027. 2024 call space was $17.8B, guiding $16.5B for 2025. Christian highlighted excitement about Cabenfi, Melvexian (factor XIa anticoagulant), armiparant (pulmonary fibrosis), protein degradation platform (with Iberdomide Phase III data), and cell therapy platform for autoimmune diseases.

Growth portfolio up 16% YTDFour products annualizing >$1B in growth portfolioOn track for $1B cost savings in 2025Clear line of sight to $2B savings by 2027

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Cobenfy weekly TRx trajectory — Surpassed 2,400 TRx/week vs. the ~2,000 baseline last quarter and "above 2,500" threshold flagged. Tracking ahead of recently launched D2 analogs and adding new trialists weekly, but management still pointing to the early-2026 Phase 4 switch study as the inflection event rather than current run-rate.

Resolved positively

ADEPT-2 top-line data (end of 2025) — Still expected by year-end; management remains blinded. No incremental derisking signal beyond reiterating external Lilly Day data and ADEPT-1 lead-in support. Binary catalyst is intact.

Continue monitoring

Milvexian Phase 3 readouts — Management referenced "milvexian three large Phase 3 trials" as part of the pivotal cadence but added no new timing or interim color. ACS and secondary stroke remain 2026; AF in 2027.

Continue monitoring

Eliquis Q3 trajectory and IRA-related 2026 setup — Eliquis +23% to $3.75B is the standout Q3 number — the opposite of the LOE-cliff narrative for now. Management did not detail incremental 2026 Part D mechanics on the call. Status: Resolved positively (for Q3; the 2026 setup question remains)

Legacy Portfolio decline rate — Q3 declined just -13% Ex-FX vs. the -15% to -17% FY guide range (YTD -16%), which is what funded the revenue raise. Notably, management reaffirmed the -15% to -17% FY range, implying a sharper Q4 step-down. Status: Resolved positively, but watch Q4

Productivity initiative pacing — Confirmed on track for $1B in 2025 net savings, with clear line of sight to $2B by 2027. SG&A -10% YoY in Q3 evidences the pacing. No 2026-specific phasing was given.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

ADEPT-2 top-line readout (by year-end 2025) — The single most important binary catalyst before Q4 print. A clear positive derisks ADEPT-1/ADEPT-4 in 2026 and unlocks the Alzheimer's psychosis expansion thesis; a miss collapses the Cobenfy peak-sales narrative regardless of the TRx ramp.

Q4 Legacy Portfolio decline vs. reaffirmed -15% to -17% FY — Q3 was -13% Ex-FX; management implicitly signaled a sharper Q4. A print worse than -20% in Q4 would break the moderation narrative even within an in-line FY result.

Eliquis trajectory into IRA Part D 2026 — Q3 at +23% YoY ($3.75B) is the foundation of the guidance raise. Watch the next call for explicit Part D negotiated-price impact and 2026 framing.

pumitamig (BNT327) TNBC data at San Antonio Breast (December) — First material clinical readout to test whether the $11B BioNTech deal's PD-L1/VEGF thesis holds across BMY's chosen indications.

Iberdomide (Excalibur trial) regulatory path — First Phase 3 win from the protein-degradation platform that management has flagged as a long-term differentiator. Watch for filing timing and label specifics.

FY26 guidance framework on Q4 call — Given the $2B-by-2027 cost savings, accelerating Growth Portfolio, and known Eliquis LOE, FY26 revenue/EPS guide ranges will be the most important data point of the next cycle.

Sources

BMY Q3 2025 Press Release (8-K Ex. 99.1), filed October 30, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000001427225000147/a2025q3ex991.htm
BMY Q3 2025 earnings call commentary (management prepared remarks and Q&A)

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