BMY · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Bristol Myers Squibb

Reported February 5, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue of $12.50B (+1% YoY) capped FY25 at $48.19B — above the raised $47.5–$48.0B guide — but non-GAAP EPS of $6.15 came in $0.25 below the low end of the $6.40–$6.60 FY guide. FY non-GAAP gross margin of 72.6% landed modestly above the ~72% approximation but declined 270bps YoY from 75.3%, and Q4 non-GAAP gross margin compressed 210bps YoY to 71.9% on product mix (notably Eliquis and Revlimid) — so the "above guide" framing masks a clear YoY margin deterioration. FY26 guidance is the story: revenue guided to $46.0–$47.5B (-4.6% to -1.5% YoY), other income/(expense) swung from +$500M income to -$700M expense (a $1.2B negative swing), and non-GAAP EPS guided to $6.05–$6.35 — essentially flat with FY25's miss. Eliquis Q4 printed +8% reported but only +6% Ex-FX — the underlying deceleration is sharper than the headline implies, which matters given the +10–15% FY26 WW guide. Management dressed the cut with "data-rich 2026" pipeline framing (six registrational readouts, 10+ Phase 3 reads), but the print acknowledges the Legacy cliff is now arriving.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.26

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$12.50B

+1.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

71.9%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

34.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$12.50B	+1.0%	$12.22B	+2.3%
EPS	$1.26	—	$1.63	-22.7%
Gross margin	71.9%	—	72.9%	-100bps
Operating margin	34.8%	—	38.4%	-360bps

Guidance

Management lowered FY2026 revenue outlook (-4.6% to -1.5% YoY decline) and swung other income guidance from +$500M to -$700M, partially offset by tighter OpEx guidance and legacy portfolio decline assumptions; FY2025 EPS missed prior guidance despite revenue beat and margin outperformance.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY2025	$47.5B - $48.0B	$48.194B	above the high end of guide	Met
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2025	$6.40 - $6.60	$6.15	below the low end of guide	Met
Gross Margin %	FY2025	~72%	72.6%	+0.6pts above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Eliquis Revenue Growth	FY2026	10% - 15%	—
Revenue	FY2026	$46.0B - $47.5B	-4.6 to -1.5% YoY
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2026	$6.05 - $6.35	-1.6 to +3.3% YoY

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Operating Expenses	FY2025	~$16.5B	~$16.3B	-$0.2B reduction	Lowered
Other Income/(Expense)	FY2025	~$500M income	~($700M)	-$1.2B swing to expense	Lowered
Legacy Portfolio Revenue Decline	FY2025	approximately 15% - 17%	approximately 12% - 16%	-3 to -1pts improvement	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Effective Tax Rate (~18%)

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Growth Portfolio	$7.393B	+16.0%
Legacy Portfolio	$5.109B	-15.0%
Opdivo	$2.693B	+9.0%
Eliquis	$3.453B	+8.0%
Breyanzi	$0.392B	+49.0%
Reblozyl	$0.666B	+22.0%
Growth Portfolio Revenue Growth	16% YoY	—
Opdivo Revenue	$2.693B	—
Eliquis Revenue	$3.453B	—
Breyanzi Revenue Growth	49% YoY	—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
United States	$8.558B	—
International	$3.944B	+5.0%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	34.8%	—
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	71.9%	—
Quarterly Dividend per Share	$0.63	—
International Revenue Growth	5% YoY	—

Management tone

Q2 anchor: Pipeline reset + opportunistic BD → Q3 anchor: Quantified catalyst calendar → Q4 anchor: "Data-rich" inflection year framing the revenue decline as investment phase.

The pipeline catalyst framing tightened again, but now carries the weight of justifying a revenue decline. A quarter ago management quantified "seven NMEs and seven LCM opportunities" over 12–24 months. This quarter that became "This is a data-rich period for BMS, which could drive the introduction of more than 10 new medicines and over 30 meaningful launch opportunities by 2030." The catalyst count expanded as the FY26 number contracted — a deliberate narrative pivot from "year of execution" to "year of investment." The risk is obvious: with six pivotal readouts now bundled into 2026, the variance of outcomes against the new revenue base is meaningfully higher.

Eliquis went from "Legacy" to growth-driver across three quarters. Q2 lumped Eliquis with Legacy and treated it as the cliff. Q3 broke it out as a separate growth story. This quarter management formalized the reframe: "Within the legacy portfolio, we project Eloquist growth this year to be in the range of 10 to 15%. This is driven by continued global demand growth and the recent price reduction, which expands patient access and eliminates the associated inflation penalty." The shift from cliff-narrative to managed-growth-asset is real — but Q4 Eliquis decelerated to +6% Ex-FX (the basis used on the call), and the 2027 step-down of $1.5–$2B was flagged as a risk on the call. The 10–15% FY26 guide is the most testable claim in the print, and the underlying Q4 exit rate makes it tighter than the reported +8% suggests.

Cost-savings rhetoric moved from defensive to enabling to "we still grew costs." Q2 introduced productivity as flexibility for BD. Q3 reframed it as agility to reinvest. This quarter: "We delivered on our cost savings initiative in 2025 and will continue to expand the use of AI to help us move faster, operate leaner, and reinvest strategically in growth... even with these investments, we expect to reduce costs year over year." The math says ~$300M of opex relief (FY25 actual $16.6B → FY26 ~$16.3B) against a $1.2B+ revenue cut — the AI/leaner-ops story is real but not arithmetically large enough to absorb the top-line shift.

Growth Portfolio is no longer characterized as "offsetting" — it's characterized as "the company." Management's prepared-remarks framing: "Despite a decline of roughly $4 billion in revenue from our legacy portfolio, the growth portfolio nearly offset all of that." Three quarters ago this was a defensive talking point; now it's the explicit succession narrative. Q4 Growth Portfolio +16% with Breyanzi +49% and Reblozyl +22% supports the framing — but the FY26 -1.5% to -4.6% guide says the offset will be incomplete in 2026.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Growth portfolio offsetting legacy decline, reshaping company identityData-rich 2026 with 6+ registrational readouts as near-term catalystsNewer products (Reblazil, Camzios, Opdiag, Breonzi) achieving $1B+ scale and acceleratingCost savings program enabling reinvestment in growth and business developmentEloquist stabilization through access expansion and price optimizationAI and operational efficiency driving faster execution and leaner operations

Risks management surfaced:

Legacy portfolio declining 12-16% in 2026 due to ongoing loss-of-exclusivity impactsForeign exchange volatility impact on reported growth ratesGross margin pressure from product mix (Eloquist and Revlimid weighing on margins)Regulatory and clinical execution risk on 6+ registrational readouts expected in 2026Eloquist step-down of $1.5-2 billion projected for 2027

Q&A highlights

Seamus Fernandez · Guggenheim Securities

Asked about positioning of areas with most relative upside among six Phase 3 pivotal catalysts in 2026, specifically regarding cell mods, Milvexian, and Ed Milperant, noting potential benefits from royalty agreements.

Management highlighted key catalysts: good growth in current products, 10+ Phase 3 readouts in 2026, cell mods (Excalibur with PFS data, Abertamide), Milvexian as potential best-in-class Factor 11 oral therapy in AFib, and other programs across multiple therapeutic areas. Expressed high confidence in pipeline strength across oncology, hematology, and other indications.

Over 10 Phase 3 data readouts expected in 2026More Phase 3 readouts coming in 2027 and 2028Milvexian as potential only Factor 11 oral therapy in AFibCell mod programs showing activity; confident on first and second readouts

Michael Yee · UBS

Asked about Milvexian AFib study DSMB safety looks and bleeding event rates, and whether metabolic/obesity is an area Bristol would engage in via BD.

Management confirmed enrollment of 20,000+ patients in Librexia AFib study, well past efficacy termination threshold seen with competitors. DSMB regularly endorses progression and checks efficacy/safety. Company remains blinded but confident bleeding rates support hypothesis that Milvexian achieves non-inferiority on efficacy with superior bleeding profile versus Eliquis. On metabolics, management indicated primary focus on deepening existing therapeutic areas rather than entering new spaces.

Librexia AFib: 20,000+ patients enrolledStudy well past competitor efficacy termination pointRecent DSMB endorsement of progressionTarget: non-inferiority on efficacy, superiority on bleeding vs Eliquis

Chris Shaw · J.P. Morgan

Asked about Eloquist dynamics contributing to 2026 growth and broader BD priorities—whether focus is deepening existing areas or new expansions like Coronaprise, and whether BD timing depends on upcoming pipeline readouts.

On Eloquist: 75% NREX share in U.S., continued growth through 2026 driven by IRA pricing changes (40% WAC reduction, Medicare Part D liability removal), and increased commercial contracting flexibility. On BD: Company emphasized strong late-stage pipeline reduces need to chase deals; focus is opportunistic, building depth in known therapeutic areas where they can add clinical/commercial value; timing independent of pipeline readouts.

Eloquist ~75% U.S. NREX share40% WAC reduction from IRA pricingMedicare Part D liability removal effective Jan 1, 2026Strong financial position enables selective M&A without pipeline readout dependency

Terrence Flynn · Morgan Stanley

Asked what clinically meaningful bleeding delta versus Eliquis would support broader payer coverage for Milvexian, and confirmed mid-single-digit growth guidance for growth portfolio.

Management reiterated primary endpoint is non-inferiority on efficacy; selected 100 mg BID dose balances activity and bleeding risk (higher than stroke prevention dose). After non-inferiority met, will test superiority for bleeding. Emphasized Factor 11 positioning addresses 40% of AFib patients undertreated due to bleeding concerns; multibillion-dollar opportunity supported by payer discussions on differentiated benefit-risk profile and economic benefits from avoided bleeding events. Confirmed mid-single-digit growth on portfolio.

Milvexian 100 mg BID dose selected for AFib studyPrimary endpoint: non-inferiority on efficacy vs Eliquis/ApixabanSecondary: superiority testing on bleeding rates40% of AFib patients undertreated or untreated due to bleeding concerns

Jeff Meacham · Citi

Asked about CoBENFI sales acceleration trajectory given lack of inflection despite early excitement, and about Pumitamig phase 3 data tipping points and capacity for scale-up.

On CoBENFI: Over 100,000 TRXs since launch, ~70% commercial access, virtually 100% Medicaid/Medicare access, Q4 showed acceleration in NRXs post-full field force expansion. Growth driver is new indications (phase 4 studies on switch, real-world data). On Pumitamig: Demonstrated activity in triple-negative breast and small cell lung cancer; high confidence in strategy based on validated targets (PD-1/PD-L1 and VEGF); already scaled up development with 7 pivotal studies launched/in-flight across multiple indications (lung, gastric, colon, head/neck, breast), plus 8th announced.

CoBENFI: >100,000 TRXs since launch, surpassing relevant schizophrenia analogsCoBENFI access: 100% Medicaid/Medicare, ~70% commercialQ4 NRX acceleration post-field force expansionPumitamig: Active in triple-negative breast and small cell lung cancer

Answers to last quarter's watch list

ADEPT-2 top-line readout (by year-end 2025) — Bristol announced on December 3 the continuation of the Phase 3 ADEPT-2 study "in order to enroll additional patients" — a delay/expansion signal, not silence. On the call, management framed the broader ADEPT program (Alzheimer's psychosis) as "coming by the end of the year" within the 2026 readout slate. Net: timeline pushed, narrative folded into the 2026 catalyst bundle. Status: Resolved negatively for 2025; on watch for 2026

Q4 Legacy Portfolio decline vs. reaffirmed -15% to -17% FY — Q4 Legacy printed -15%, landing inside the FY guide range. Management's Q3 signal of a sharper Q4 played out as expected; FY26 Legacy decline now guided to -12% to -16%, a +1 to +3pt improvement.

Resolved positively

Eliquis trajectory into IRA Part D 2026 — Q4 Eliquis decelerated to +8% reported / +6% Ex-FX ($3.45B), but management issued an unprecedented +10–15% WW growth guide for FY26 driven by 40% WAC reduction, Medicare Part D liability removal, and commercial contracting flexibility. Risk: management flagged a $1.5–2B Eliquis step-down in 2027. Status: Resolved positively for FY26; 2027 risk is now on the watch list

pumitamig (BNT327) TNBC data at San Antonio Breast (December) — Not specifically discussed in Q4 prepared remarks or press release headline. Management did confirm 7 pivotal studies launched/in-flight with TNBC and SCLC activity referenced.

Continue monitoring

Iberdomide (Excalibur trial) regulatory path — Referenced in Q&A as a 2026 pivotal readout (Excalibur PFS data), but no filing timing or label specifics disclosed on this print.

Continue monitoring

FY26 guidance framework on Q4 call — Delivered: revenue $46.0–$47.5B (-4.6% to -1.5% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $6.05–$6.35, Legacy decline -12% to -16%, Eliquis +10–15%, opex ~$16.3B, gross margin ~69–70%, other income/(expense) swung to -$700M expense. The framework is more granular than prior cycles but the headline is a guided revenue decline.

Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY26 revenue cadence vs. management's "typical sequential decrease" commentary — Management flagged a seasonal Q1 sequential revenue decline tied to inventory destocking following Q4 build. Watch for the magnitude relative to prior-year seasonal patterns as the first test of the FY26 setup.

Eliquis Q1 FY26 trajectory vs. +10–15% WW FY26 guide — Q4 decelerated to +6% Ex-FX; the FY26 +10–15% guide depends on Part D dynamics offsetting the WAC reduction. Watch for explicit U.S. vs. ex-U.S. split.

Six 2026 pivotal readouts — specifically Librexia AFib (Milvexian) DSMB progression, Excalibur (Iberdomide) PFS data, and CELMoD Arlocabtamide — These bundle into the "data-rich" narrative; even one clean miss collapses the 2030 framing.

Other income/(expense) Q1 print vs. -$700M FY26 guide — The $1.2B swing is the single largest below-the-line item. Watch for breakdown between royalty/licensing decline and FX/interest headwinds; royalty erosion is structural, FX is not.

BNT327 (pumitamig) first registrational readout timing — Management cited 7 pivotal studies in-flight with an 8th announced. A clean signal in TNBC or first-line lung would be the first major test of the $11B BioNTech thesis.

2027 Eliquis step-down framing — Management flagged $1.5–$2B as a forward risk in Q&A. Watch the next call for explicit 2027 guidance posture and any pre-emptive growth-driver bridging.

Sources

BMY Q4 2025 Press Release (8-K Ex. 99.1), filed February 5, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000001427226000002/a2025q4ex991.htm
BMY Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (management prepared remarks and Q&A)

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