CASY · Q1 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Casey's

Reported September 8, 2025

30-second summary

Three months ended July 31, 2025 • Reported September 8, 2025

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2025

$5.77

Revenue

Q1 FY2025

$4.57B

+11.5% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2025

24.4%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2025

$0.26B

Key financials

Q1 FY2025

Metric	Q1 FY2025	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$4.57B	+11.5%	$3.99B	+14.5%
EPS	$5.77	—	$2.63	+119.4%
Gross margin	24.4%	—	23.2%	+120bps
Free cash flow	$0.26B	—	—	—

Guidance

Q1 FY2025 beat on same-store sales growth, margin, and fuel gallons; full-year FY2026 guidance broadly reaffirmed with new disclosure on three-year store growth plan.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Inside Same-Store Sales Growth	Q1 FY2025	2% to 5%	4.3%	+0.8 to +2.3pts above midpoint of guide	Beat
Inside Margin	Q1 FY2025	approximately 41%	41.9%	+0.9pts above guide	Beat
Same-Store Fuel Gallons Sold Growth	Q1 FY2025	-1% to +1%	1.7%	+0.7pts above high end of guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Three-year strategic plan store growth	FY 2026	approximately 500 stores	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EBITDA growth (10% to 12%), Net interest expense (approximately $110 million), Depreciation and amortization (approximately $450 million), Capital expenditures (approximately $600 million), Tax rate (24% to 26%), New store openings (at least 80 stores), Total operating expenses growth (approximately 8% to 10%)

Segment performance

Q1 FY2025

Segment	Q1 FY2025	YoY
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage	$0.458B	+13.2%
Grocery & General Merchandise	$1.225B	+14.6%
Fuel	$2.734B	+6.9%

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2025

Segment	Q1 FY2025
Inside Same-Store Sales Growth	4.3%
Same-Store Fuel Gallons Growth	1.7%
Total Fuel Gallons Sold	911.8 million gallons
Store Count	2,895 stores

Profitability

Q1 FY2025

Segment	Q1 FY2025
Inside Gross Margin	41.9%
Fuel Margin	41.0 cents/gallon
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage Margin	58.0%
Grocery & General Merchandise Margin	35.9%

Management tone

No tone-shift analysis available for this quarter.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

M&A-driven scale acceleration with Fikes/Sefco integrationPrepared food innovation and category growth (70% hot sandwich momentum)Operational efficiency through digital transformation and process simplificationGross margin expansion via private label penetration and cost of goods managementConsumer resilience segmented by income; modest pressure only at lower endFuel volume growth via market share capture despite flat/down regional trends

Risks management surfaced:

Cheese commodity cost inflation (10% higher than prior year; $100M+ annual exposure)Lower lottery traffic impact in Q1 from cycling mega jackpots (traffic headwind, non-sales impact)Integration execution risk on pending Fikes/Sefco acquisition (198 units, $1.145B gross purchase price)Leverage elevation to 2.4x at closing, requiring 12-month deleveraging to 2x targetPending Department of Labor overtime rule step-up in January (mitigated as de minimis)

Q&A highlights

Michael Montani · Evercore ISI

Consumer health and cross-currents; ability to hedge or take pricing on cheese costs to offset margin pressure in Q2

Three-quarters of guests earn >$50k annually with no behavioral change; lower-income consumers modestly reducing basket size. On cheese: ~25% of requirements hedged for remainder of year; managing total inside profitability rather than prepared food margin in isolation; modest pricing adjustments made; comfortable with current gross profit dollar growth.

75% of guest base earns >$50k annually~25% of cheese requirements hedged for remainder of fiscal yearCheese costs up 2% YoY ($2.09/lb vs $2.04/lb)Made modest pricing adjustments on prepared food items

Bonnie Herzog · Goldman Sachs

Inside same-store sales growth of 2.3% softer than expected; grocery/GMM growth at 1.6%; consumer perception of value amid middle-income pressure

Cycling strong prior-year quarter; lottery jackpot cycling caused 2 of 3 traffic-negative months; no systemic weakness seen. Premium fuel sales up 9% and E15 down 10%, indicating no consumer stress. August returned to annual guidance range. Private label holding steady at 300+ SKUs contributing ~100 bps margin benefit.

Cycling over $1B lottery jackpots in 2 of first quarter months caused traffic pressurePremium fuel sales up almost 9% YoYE15 fuel volume down ~10%Private label at 300+ SKUs contributing ~100 basis points margin

Bobby Griffin · Raymond James

Operational efficiency improvements; examples of continuous improvement initiatives and quantification of remaining opportunity

Digital production planner in kitchens eliminating manual forecasting/paperwork; 5S inventory organization reducing kitchen footsteps and improving ordering accuracy. Results in labor savings, waste improvement, and supply inventory reduction. Ninth consecutive quarter of same-store labor hour reductions with guest satisfaction scores up 320 bps.

Digital production planner implemented in kitchen operations5S inventory organization program activeNinth consecutive quarter of same-store labor hour reductionsGuest satisfaction scores up 320 basis points YoY

Corey Tarlow · Jefferies

Perspective on M&A runway in the industry; drivers of recent M&A activity; other acquisition targets

FIKES/SEFCO was family business seeking liquidity monetization. Industry fragmentation and post-COVID challenging environment driving consolidation; scale mattering more than ever. Industry break-even at 15 cpm, but bottom decile at ~40 cpm, creating pressure on smaller operators. Will continue M&A screening but larger deals comparable to FIKES would require careful balance sheet consideration; smaller acquisitions and organic growth to continue.

Industry break-even fuel margin: 15 cents per gallonBottom decile fuel break-even: ~40 cents per gallonFIKES/SEFCO transaction: family business monetizationWill moderate new-to-industry store growth to manage leverage post-FIKES close

Chuck Sarankoski · North Coast Research

Other M&A deals during FIKES closing period; CapEx requirements for FIKES kitchen retrofitting

Will continue looking at smaller acquisitions and organic growth while integrating FIKES; larger comparable deals require careful leverage consideration. Approximately $145 million CapEx anticipated for FIKES store renovations/retrofits to add Casey's kitchens to majority of acquired stores.

$145 million anticipated CapEx for FIKES kitchen retrofitsMajority of FIKES stores will receive Casey's kitchensM&A team will continue screening smaller deals during FIKES integration

What to watch into next quarter

Execution against the FY2026 inside same-store sales range (2-5%) after a strong +4.3% Q1 start.

Sustainability of fuel margin above 40 cpg alongside positive same-store gallons.

Pace of new store openings and M&A toward the "at least 80 stores" FY2026 target and ~500-store three-year plan.

Operating expense trajectory vs. the ~8-10% full-year growth guide given Q1 came in at +14.6% total / +3.0% same-store ex. credit card fees.

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