CASY · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Casey's

Reported December 9, 2025

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$5.53

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.51B

+14.2% YoY

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

24.9%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$4.51B	+14.2%	$4.57B	-1.2%
EPS	$5.53	—	$5.77	-4.2%
Gross margin	24.9%	—	24.4%	+50bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Inside Same-Store Sales Growth	Q2 FY2026	2% to 5%	3.3%	within guide, toward upper-mid range	Beat
Inside Margin	Q2 FY2026	approximately 41%	42.4%	+140 bps above guide	Beat
Same-Store Fuel Gallons Sold Growth	Q2 FY2026	negative 1% to positive 1%	0.8%	within guide, toward upper end	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Inside Same-Store Sales Growth	FY2026	3% to 4%	—
Inside Margin	FY2026	41% to 42%	—
Same-Store Fuel Gallons Sold	FY2026	negative 1% to positive 1%	—
Total Operating Expenses Growth	FY2026	approximately 8% to 10%	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
EBITDA Growth	FY2026	10% to 12%	15% to 17%	+300 to +500 bps at midpoint	Raised
Tax Rate	FY2026	approximately 24% to 26%	24% to 25%	-100 bps at high end	Raised
Three-Year Strategic Plan Store Growth	FY2026	approximately 500 stores	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Net Interest Expense (approximately $110 million), Depreciation and Amortization (approximately $450 million), Capital Expenditures (approximately $600 million), New Store Openings (at least 80 stores)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage	$0.468B	+11.9%
Grocery & General Merchandise	$1.191B	+13.5%
Fuel	$2.687B	+11.3%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Inside Same-Store Sales Growth	3.3%
Same-Store Fuel Gallons Growth	0.8%
Total Store Count	2,921 stores

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Inside Margin	42.4%
Fuel Margin	41.6 cents/gallon
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage Margin	58.6%
Grocery & General Merchandise Margin	36.0%
EBITDA	$410.1 million

Management tone

Customer-optimization-era caution → Fikes-integration year → SEFCO digestion → operating mastery with capital return acceleration.

Three quarters ago Fikes was being framed as accretive-to-EBITDA-but-dilutive-to-EPS-every-quarter, with management deliberately inoculating against EPS-driven misses. This quarter the language has flipped: the FY26 buyback was raised from ~$125M to ~$200M "due to stronger earnings and higher cash flows." The shift signals management believes the Fikes EPS drag is now smaller than originally underwritten, and that capital deployment can move offensively while integration continues.

SEFCO has gone from an unquantified margin overhang to a fully sized and absorbed headwind. Management was unusually specific: "There was an approximate 130 basis point headwind from the SEFCO stores that were partially offset by improved waste, accretive mix, and the favorable cheese cost comparison. This inclusive of an approximately one and a half cent per gallon drag from the Sefco stores." Last quarter SEFCO was a tail risk for H2; this quarter it's a known, manageable cost being offset operationally — and prepared food still printed 58.6% margin.

Fuel framing has shifted from cycle-management to share-taking. Last year's tone was defensive (hold margins through volatility); this quarter management said "fourth consecutive quarter of fuel gallon growth. This was accomplished while also growing cents per gallon margin... our same-store gallons growth outpaced Opus Data in our region again." That's a structural-share-gain narrative, not a cyclical-margin narrative.

Promotional posture has hardened into confidence. A quarter ago whole pies were a category to watch; this quarter management said "we can be creative with our promotional activity and balance margin performance" — citing whole pies growing faster than the prepared foods category while the category still printed strong margin. The signal: Casey's believes it has pricing power and merchandising depth to drive traffic without margin sacrifice.

The closing statement was unusually forward-leaning: "As we look to close out our three-year strategic plan, I cannot ask for a better team to execute the plan and deliver industry-leading results." Combined with the withdrawal of the ~500-store three-year target without replacement, this reads as a setup for a new multi-year plan to be unveiled — not a retreat from unit growth ambition.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Consistent same-store sales acceleration on two-year basisInside margin expansion through mix shift and cost disciplineSustained fuel gallon growth with market share gainsSEFCO acquisition integration and quantified headwind managementPromotional creativity balancing traffic generation with margin preservationStrong free cash flow generation enabling capital return increase

Risks management surfaced:

SEFCO store margin drag of approximately 130 basis points in prepared foodFuel margin headwind of approximately 1.5 cents per gallon from SEFCO storesLower retail fuel prices offsetting gallon growthLabor rate increases pressuring same-store operating expensesInterest expense increase from FIKES acquisition financing

Q&A highlights

Ed Kelly · Wells Fargo

Sustainability of fuel margin outperformance, expectations for margin reversion in Q3, whether competitive backdrop or approach has fundamentally changed, and OpEx increase on same-store basis.

Management attributed outperformance to consistent approach balancing profitability and volume, plus structural advantage from 75% of transactions being inside-store. Noted seasonal margin patterns (Q3-Q4 lower than H1) without forward guidance. OpEx increase of 4.5% consistent with expectations due to timing of FIX transaction, flat labor hours (deliberate after multi-year reduction), and increases in insurance, utilities, legal, and advertising.

75% of transactions involve inside-store purchases without fuel8-10% four-year total OpEx guidance unchangedQ3 OpEx expected to be mid-single digitsSame-store labor hours flat in quarter after multi-year reduction

Ryan Bolger · Gordon Haskett

Impact of Sefco store integration into comp base next quarter, margin dynamics, traffic, and comp implications.

Management confirmed Sefco prepared foods margin is approximately 50% of Casey's, with rebranding and kitchen conversions starting in calendar year beginning with larger stores. Expect margin accretion over time but will have near-term impact. Mitigated impact this quarter through cost management and waste reduction. Math on comp impact not yet calculated but acknowledged blending impact will occur.

Sefco prepared foods margin is ~50% of Casey's prepared foods marginRebranding and kitchen conversions begin at start of calendar yearLarger Sefco stores with existing kitchens will convert firstTeam successfully mitigated Sefco margin impact through cost and waste management

Bonnie Herzog · Goldman Sachs

Drivers of sequential EBITDA growth deceleration in H2 despite strong H1 results and updated guidance; M&A strategy and market observations.

Management stated deceleration is mechanical due to higher prior-year H2 comparison from Fikes acquisition now in base, not from deteriorating mothership or Fikes performance. M&A strategy unchanged: focus on small tuck-in deals through dedicated team, larger deals opportunistic. High bar on asset quality; setting high standards means saying no to more deals than saying yes.

Fikes acquisition now in prior-year H2 base creating mechanical decelerationMothership performance expectations unchanged for H2Fikes performance on planDedicated M&A team pursuing normal-course tuck-in acquisitions

Bobby Griffin · Raymond James

Can same-store OpEx pressure moderate to low threes or high twos going forward given multi-year hour reduction efforts appear to be in later innings.

Management declined forward guidance beyond FY2024 but indicated hour reduction work largely completed with future focus on fine-tuning. Noted natural inflection point: traffic up 1.5%, whole pie units up 8%, requiring incremental labor. Emphasized OpEx management in context of traffic growth, highest-ever satisfaction scores, and strong EBITDA/gross profit growth.

Multi-year labor hour reduction work largely completedTraffic up 1.5% in quarterWhole pie unit sales up 8%Highest overall guest satisfaction scores ever recorded

Chuck Sarenkoski · North Coast Research

Interplay between declining fuel costs and customer in-store behavior, prepared food purchases, and influence on promotional strategy.

Management noted lower fuel prices leave discretionary income but broader driver is consumer discernment about spending. Customers appreciate Casey's value proposition and trading up to premium items (specialty vs. single-topping pizzas, multi-packs in bakery) on per-unit basis. Value equation of quality and price is primary driver, not fuel price level.

Customers trading up to specialty pizzas vs. single-topping despite higher absolute priceCustomers trading to multi-packs in bakery for lower per-unit costConsumer focus on value equation of quality and priceLower fuel prices help but in-store offer differentiation is bigger driver

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Execution against the FY26 inside same-store sales range (2–5%) after a +4.3% Q1 start — Q2 printed +3.3%, comfortably within range. Management tightened the FY26 guide to 3–4%, which validates the H1 run-rate as sustainable but trims the upside scenario.

Resolved positively

Sustainability of fuel margin above 40 cpg alongside positive same-store gallons — Q2 fuel margin was 41.6 cpg with same-store gallons +0.8%, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of gallon growth with margin expansion. Same-store gallon growth outpaced Opus Data regional benchmarks.

Resolved positively

Pace of new store openings and M&A toward the ≥80-store FY26 target and ~500-store three-year plan — Store count moved to 2,921 from 2,895, and the ≥80-store FY26 target was reaffirmed. However, the ~500-store three-year plan target was withdrawn without replacement disclosure. Management framed M&A as continuing through a dedicated tuck-in team with a high asset-quality bar. Status: Not resolved — disclosure framework has shifted; multi-year unit-growth ambition needs to be re-articulated.

Operating expense trajectory vs. the 8–10% FY guide given Q1's +14.6% total / +3.0% same-store — Q2 same-store OpEx came in at +4.5%, and management reaffirmed the 8–10% FY total OpEx range. Q3 same-store OpEx telegraphed at "mid-single digits." The Fikes-lapping mechanical effect is now visible in the run-rate.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the new 41–42% FY26 inside margin ceiling holds or gets raised — Q2 printed 42.4%, already above the new top end. A Q3 print above 42% would force another mid-year raise; a step-down toward 41% would validate the SEFCO-blending narrative.

SEFCO comp-base mechanics in Q3 — SEFCO enters comp; watch the implied deceleration in same-store fuel gallons and inside same-store sales. The 3–4% FY guide implies H2 runs close to H1's average, but the mix shift could pressure the print.

Re-articulation of multi-year unit growth ambition — the ~500-store three-year plan was withdrawn without a replacement. Watch for a new multi-year plan or store-count target on the Q3 call or at an investor day; silence here would be a meaningful negative on the structural-compounder thesis.

EBITDA cadence vs. the raised 15–17% FY guide — H1 EBITDA is up roughly 18–19% YoY; H2 needs to land around +12–14% to hit the FY range. Watch whether Q3 over-delivers (setting up another raise) or lands in-line (validating the mechanical-deceleration framing from the Goldman exchange).

Buyback execution pace — $200M FY26 authorization vs. ~$31M repurchased in Q1. Watch for accelerated repurchase in H2 as a tell on management's confidence in the cash flow trajectory and Fikes deleveraging speed.

Sources

Casey's General Stores Q2 FY2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K filing), December 9, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695825000116/q2fy2026earningspressrelea.htm
Casey's Q2 FY2026 earnings call Q&A (transcript excerpts as supplied)

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