EFX · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Equifax

Reported February 4, 2026

30-second summary

Equifax delivered Q4 revenue of $1.551B (+9% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.09, both above the high end of the prior guide ($1.506–1.536B / $1.98–2.08). The headline is a clean revenue beat with a margin caveat: Workforce Solutions grew +9%, USIS held at +12%, and management framed FY2026 at $6.66–6.78B revenue (+9.6% to +11.6% reported) and $8.30–8.70 adjusted EPS (+8.5% to +13.7%) — a step-up from FY2025's 7% actual, with Q1 2026 guided to +10.7% to +12.8% reported growth. The mortgage tailwind (+20% consolidated U.S. mortgage revenue in Q4, with USIS Mortgage specifically +33%) and EWS Verification Services +10% are doing the work. But adjusted EPS was -1% YoY in Q4 despite revenue +9%, with adjusted EBITDA margin compressing ~260bps (35.4% → 32.8%) — the print is a revenue/share-gain story, not a margin story, and that tension matters into the FY2026 guide.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.09

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.55B

+9.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

18.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.55B	+9.0%	$1.54B	+0.4%
EPS	$2.09	—	$2.04	+2.5%
Operating margin	18.3%	—	17.1%	+120bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$1.506 billion - $1.536 billion	$1.551 billion	+$0.015 billion above the high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EPS	Q4 FY2025	$1.98 - $2.08 per share	$2.09 per share	+$0.01 above the high end of guide	Beat
Revenue	FY2025	$6.030 billion - $6.060 billion	$6.0745 billion	+$0.0145 billion above the high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EPS	FY2025	$7.55 - $7.65 per share	$7.65 per share	in-line with the high end of guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	FY2026	$6.660 billion - $6.780 billion	+9.6% to +11.6% reported growth
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	$8.30 - $8.70 per share	+8.5% to +13.9% vs. FY2025 actual of $7.65
Revenue Growth (reported)	FY2026	9.6% to 11.6%	9.6% to 11.6% YoY
Local Currency Growth	FY2026	9.1% to 11.1%	—
Organic Local Currency Growth	FY2026	9.0% to 11.0%	—
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2026	$2.12 billion, up about 10%	—
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$1.597 billion - $1.627 billion	10.7% to 12.8% reported growth
Adjusted EPS	Q1 FY2026	—	—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Workforce Solutions	$0.652B	+9.0%
Verification Services	$0.557B	+10.0%
U.S. Information Solutions	$0.527B	+12.0%
Online Information Solutions	$0.448B	+13.0%
International	$0.372B	+7.0%
Mortgage Revenue Growth	+20% (U.S. Mortgage, Q4 2025)	—
Workforce Solutions Government Growth	low double-digit	—
USIS Diversified Markets Growth	+5%	—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Latin America	$0.108B	+8.0%
Europe	$0.109B	+9.0%
Asia Pacific	$0.087B	+4.0%
Vitality Index	17%	—
Operating Margin	18.3%	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	32.8%	—
Cash Returned to Shareholders (Q4)	$561 million	—
Share Repurchases (Q4)	2.3 million shares for $500 million	—

Management tone

FY2026 guided revenue growth of 9.6–11.6% materially exceeds the long-term framework, and the press release anchors the guide on share gain and product velocity (Vitality at 17% in Q4 vs 10% LT goal) rather than a rate-cycle bet — FY2026 explicitly assumes the U.S. mortgage market down low-single-digits. The decision to exclude VantageScore conversion from the 100%-FICO assumption is a deliberate conservatism; the release notes that as customers convert to "the lower-priced and higher-performing Vantage scores, we expect significant margin expansion," signaling that optionality is being held out of guidance until conversion is in hand. The countervailing signal is margin: Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin compressed 260bps YoY to 32.8% and adjusted EPS was -1% YoY despite revenue +9%, and the FY2026 EBITDA guide of ~+10% growth against revenue ~+10.5% growth implies margin is roughly flat into next year rather than expanding. The growth story is intact; the operating leverage story is not yet visible in the numbers.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Natural gas market tailwinds and LNG export capacity expansionPortfolio optimization and geographic focus sharpeningReturn on capital employed and balance sheet strengthFree cash flow generation and shareholder returns disciplineAI/data center power generation as emerging growth vectorEngineered systems backlog visibility and book-to-bill sustainability

Risks management surfaced:

Block 60 BSAT-C expansion facility commencement timing impactRegulatory approvals required for APAC divestiture completionProject pull-forward volatility affecting sequential comparisonsRefinancing and capital structure execution risksGeopolitical and commodity price exposure in core operating regions

Q&A highlights

Aaron McNeil · TD Cohen

What is the engineered systems backlog and potential orders for power generation and energy infrastructure? Are engine lead times (110-120 weeks) a constraint on execution? Can the company practically execute on 1.5 gigawatts of opportunities in the near term?

Engine availability is not a new issue; 2026 supply is secured and positioned for 2027 given delivery constraints. Speculative engine purchases were made in Q3-Q4 to secure commitments for 2026. CapEx increases in 2026 demonstrate continued growth commitment, consistent with 2025. Two years of growth visibility for contract compression is accurate, with customer-specific positions lined up.

2026 engine supply securedPositioning for 2027 deliveries given constraintsCapEx growth in 2026 similar to 2025Two-year growth visibility for contract compression

Tim Monticello · ATV Cormac Capital Markets

Is the 110-120 week lead time accurate across the entire product line or only certain horsepower ranges? Does management have 2026 capacity for new compression and processing orders, or is capacity fully booked? What is the Middle East growth strategy and capital allocation approach?

120-week lead times apply only to higher horsepower ranges, not the entire portfolio. Equipment manufacturer capex should reduce lead times over coming months. 2026 is secured with book-and-bill opportunities existing. Middle East projects not included in current growth capital guidance (60-65% earmarked for U.S. compression fleet), but remain actively pursued with Abu Dhabi-based team. NCIB has consumed just under 5% of authorized float; capital allocation levers (growth, dividend, NCIB) will be more prescriptive post-strategy completion.

120 weeks applies to select high-horsepower product range only2026 capacity secured with book-and-bill opportunities available60-65% of growth capital earmarked for U.S. contract compressionMiddle East projects not in current growth capital guidance

John Gibson · BMO Capital Markets

Can management detail customers associated with PowerGen contracts and assess counterparty risk? Are there additional geographies under evaluation for disposition beyond the recent Asia Pacific sale?

Recent PowerGen counterparties are very strong with well-developed relationships across developers, real estate, and hyperscalers. Counterparty quality and stability are key strategic priorities; management has been conservative and metered in approach. Company previously at 27 countries; now at 17; will exit Asia Pacific to reach ~14, leaving 7 core markets (Canada, U.S., Oman, Bahrain, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico). Few additional non-core geographies under evaluation to simplify and optimize.

Recent PowerGen customer is very strong counterpartyNear-term PowerGen projects feature strong, well-developed counterpartiesCompany footprint reduced from 27 countries to 17; will decline to ~14 post-Asia Pacific exit7 core geographies identified: Canada, U.S., Oman, Bahrain, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico

Tim Monticello · ATV Cormac Capital Markets

Follow-up on whether compression orders received today would have delivery capacity in 2026, or if the backlog is already fully baked for 2026 and new orders would slip to 2027?

Management (Jeff, CFO) confirmed that capacity to support 2026 activity levels is secured, including book-and-bill opportunities. The company has visibility on activity and opportunities for both 2026 and into 2027.

2026 capacity secured for compression activityBook-and-bill opportunities exist for 2026Visibility extends to 2026 and into 2027 for activity levels

Tim Monticello · ATV Cormac Capital Markets

How should we think about NCIB share repurchase activity for 2026—will management exhaust the current NCIB authorization?

All capital allocation levers (growth capital, dividends, NCIB) remain relevant. NCIB has been active since April 1, consuming just under 5% of authorized float. More prescriptive guidance on capital allocation will be provided in coming months post-strategy completion. NCIB is open until end of March 2026, with a call to be made at that time.

NCIB active since April 1 (2025)Consumed just under 5% of authorized float to dateNCIB open until end of March 2026More prescriptive capital allocation guidance coming post-strategy work

Answers to last quarter's watch list

VantageScore production deployments — No named customer or signed contract dollar value disclosed in the print. The FY2026 guide explicitly assumes "100% of mortgage credit scores will be FICO Scores," which signals that VantageScore conversion is not yet baked into 2026 revenue. The optionality remains; the proof is still pending.

Continue monitoring

Q4 revenue landing inside the 6.1–8.2% reported range — Beat the high end: $1.551B at +9% YoY, $15M above the top, and $30M above the midpoint.

Resolved positively

Cash conversion closing above 100% for FY — FY FCF of $1.13B against $949.2M adjusted net income implies cash conversion of ~119%. FCF beat the raised $950–975M range by $155M. Post-cloud capex normalization is real.

Resolved positively

USIS Online Information Solutions sustaining double-digit growth — Delivered +13% in Q4, with USIS Mortgage specifically +33%. Twin-data file share gains and the U.S. mortgage tailwind are both intact.

Resolved positively

EWS Verification Services and Government trajectory — Verification Services +10% in Q4 led by strong low-double-digit Government growth and Diversified Markets +11%. Federal shutdown deferral risk did not materialize.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 2026 revenue lands inside the +10.7% to +12.8% reported range — the high end implies $1.627B and continued acceleration from Q4's +9%; a print at the low end would suggest the FY guide is back-half weighted and execution risk is rising.

The first named VantageScore conversion contract — the FY2026 guide explicitly assumes 100% FICO, so any signed deal becomes immediate upside to the $8.50 EPS midpoint.

Margin trajectory — Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin compressed 260bps YoY, and the FY2026 EBITDA guide of ~+10% against revenue ~+10.5% implies flattish margins; watch Q1 for evidence the post-cloud operating leverage story re-emerges.

Workforce Solutions sustaining +9% or higher — if EWS slips into the mid-single-digits, the FY2026 +10.5% midpoint becomes harder to defend, and Employer Services at only +2% remains a drag inside the segment.

USIS Diversified Markets reaccelerating from +5% back into the 6–8% long-term target band — the cleanest tell on non-mortgage U.S. demand.

U.S. mortgage revenue growth as the rate-cycle base case changes — FY2026 assumes mortgage market down low-single-digits; if hard credit inquiries deteriorate further, the +20% consolidated / +33% USIS Q4 prints will compress.

FY2026 FCF guidance refresh — the press release did not include a specific FY2026 FCF or cash conversion number; watch for it in Q1 reporting.

Sources

Equifax Q4 2025 press release / 8-K exhibit, filed February 4, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318526000004/a2025q48-kexhibit991.htm
Equifax Q3 2025 press release / 8-K exhibit, filed October 21, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33185/000003318525000061/exhibit99120250930.htm

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