tapebrief
EIX · Q3 2025

EIX · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Edison International

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Edison closed FY2025 with core EPS of $6.55, beating the prior $5.95–$6.20 guide by $0.35 at the high end, and introduced 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90–$6.20 — a midpoint of $6.05 that sits 7.6% below the year just reported. Management bridged the gap in Q&A as ~$0.25 of one-time 2026 headwinds (regulatory true-ups, asset mix/property tax, financing) and reset the 5–7% core EPS CAGR window from 2025–2028 to 2028–2030, with 2027 guided at $6.25–$6.65 as the recovery year. The 2028 dollar bracket flagged on prior briefs ($6.74–$7.14) is gone; the percentage is preserved but the runway is two years longer.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.87

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
EPS$1.87—$2.34-20.1%

Guidance

FY2025 core EPS beat guidance at $6.55, but 2026 guidance of $5.90-6.20 implies a significant near-term contraction before recovery in 2027 and beyond.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Core EPSFY2025$5.95-6.20$6.55+$0.35 above high end of guideBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Core EPSFY2026$5.90-6.20-10.2% to -10.5%
Core EPSFY2027$6.25-6.65—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Covered Conductor Installation7,000+ miles installed
Covered Conductor Completion Rate90% of planned grid hardening
Residential Rate Change2.3% decrease
Small/Medium Business Rate Change5.3% decrease
2026 Core EPS Guidance$5.90-6.20
2027 Core EPS Guidance$6.25-6.65
Long-term Core EPS Growth Target5-7% annually 2028-2030
Operating Income$7,093 million

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 legislative defense → Q3 regulatory de-risking → Q4 multi-year reset with deferred growth.

The defining tonal shift this quarter is the move from a one-year guide model to a 2026–2030 multi-year framework, paired with the quiet retirement of the 2028 dollar anchor that the Q2 brief had highlighted as the implied $6.74–$7.14 endpoint of the 5–7% CAGR from a $5.94–$6.34 2025 base. In Q4, the percentage survives but the window slides three years forward to 2028–2030. Management's Q&A framing — that 2027 will sit "at the high end" of 5–7% and that 2026's $0.25 of headwinds are non-recurring — is offered as confidence in the trajectory, but the cumulative picture is that the dollar value of 2028 EPS is materially lower than what the prior framework implied.

On Eaton, three quarters of "cannot estimate" has now produced a $1.1B recorded loss with management still declining to bound the range. Q2's framing was "12–18 month investigation timeline"; Q3 was "program launches shortly, single 52¢ settlement is insufficient data"; Q4 is "$1.1B recorded, 2,300 of 18,000 claims in, 590 offers made, still cannot give a low end." Campanella's question on when visibility arrives drew the explicit answer that the company lacks the confidence required under accounting standards to provide a range — a more candid disclosure than the Q3 deflection, but one that signals the liability tail extends well into 2026.

The capital plan tone hardened constructively. Management confirmed no equity needs through 2030 and laid out a ~$3B AMI 2.0 ask ($1.5B in 2026–2030, $1.5B post-2030), framing it as incremental rate-base growth on top of the 7% baseline that drives the post-2026 EPS recovery. The shift from Q2's "opportunities above and beyond" hand-wave to Q4's specific multi-year capital and EPS framework is real progress on planning clarity — at the cost of admitting the near-term earnings step-down.

The SB 254 framing in Q&A — "utilities cannot be sole insurers of last resort" quoting the CPUC's recent report — represents the most assertive public positioning yet on legislative durability, but Davenport's question drew a balanced "themes alignment" answer rather than any prediction on the April 1 CEA report outcome.

Q&A highlights

Nick Campanella · Barclays

On Eaton fire losses: Management disclosed ~$1.1B in recorded losses from Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program settlements. Analyst asked when the company would have visibility on the low end of total liability and what complicating factors remain.

Management stated that of 18,000 eligible properties, only 2,300 claims have been submitted so far with ~590 offers made (three months in). The $1.1B includes both WRCP payments and subrogation claim settlements (~55 cents on dollar average). Management cannot estimate a low end due to uncertainty on claim submission pace and numerous insurance companies still settling; they lack confidence required to provide a range per accounting standards.

18,000 eligible properties for WRCP2,300+ claims submitted to date590 offers made in first three months$1.1B recorded includes WRCP payments and subrogation settlements

Nick Campanella · Barclays

Follow-up on 2027 EPS guidance showing 5-7% range with management commentary about being at 'high end' in 2027. Analyst asked about financing drag considerations and whether management plans to remain at high end through 2028-2029.

Management explained 2026 has $0.25 of one-time variances (11 cents from fewer regulatory true-ups, 7 cents from asset mix/property tax, 7 cents from financing/tax/other) that are now baked in. 2027 should be at high end of 5-7% range with no large discrete variances expected, driven primarily by 7% rate-based growth. 2028-2029 similarly driven by rate-based growth. 2029-2030 potential step-up from new GRC filing in May 2027.

2026 core EPS guidance: $5.90-$6.20 (3.5% growth at midpoint vs $5.84 baseline)2027 core EPS guidance: $6.25-$6.65 (expected high end of 5-7% range)2026 headwinds total ~$0.25 (11¢ regulatory, 7¢ asset mix/property tax, 7¢ financing/tax)Rate-based growth: 7% primary driver 2027-2030

Carly Davenport · Goldman Sachs

On AMI 2.0 application: When would it be filed, what is expected approval timing, and how much capital is embedded in the 2026-2030 plan versus post-2030?

Management stated filing will occur within the next few months with typical ~18-month review period for decision. Total request will be ~$3B: ~$1.5B embedded in 2026-2030 forecast shown, with remaining ~$1.5B post-2030 through approximately 2033.

AMI 2.0 filing: within next few monthsExpected approval timeline: ~18 months from filingTotal AMI 2.0 request: ~$3 billion$1.5B capital in 2026-2030 period

Carly Davenport · Goldman Sachs

On SB 254 Natural Catastrophe Resiliency Study: Updates on somatic themes emerging from CEA process as April 1 deadline approaches, and expected timing of legislative clarity.

Management stated process is underway with robust multi-stakeholder participation. Recognized themes include: economy-wide risk (not just utility), upstream building hardening, decreasing ignition/spread risk, shoring up insurance market, and equitable socialization of catastrophic impacts. Noted CPUC's recent report acknowledged utilities cannot be sole insurers of last resort. Emphasized importance of predictable regulatory framework for capital access and affordability.

Process underway with robust cross-economy participationApril 1 CEA report deadline approachingConstructive themes: multi-sector solution, building hardening, insurance market reformCPUC report acknowledged utilities cannot be sole risk bearers

Ryan Levine · Citi

On Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program (WRCP): Would the company continue to modify the program, and what is the rationale behind recently announced changes?

Management announced two retroactive program enhancements: (1) increased tenant support from 3 months at actual rent to 3 months at higher of actual rent or fair-market-value rent; (2) increased legal fee coverage from 10% to 20% of net damages. Rationale was community feedback indicating longer-term tenants paid below-market rents and inadequate attorney fee support. Both changes applied retroactively without requiring claimant action. Management emphasized objective is fair, timely compensation while preserving wildfire fund and avoiding constant program changes that would create instability.

Tenant rent support: expanded from actual rent to FMV-based calculation (retroactive)Legal fee coverage: increased from 10% to 20% of net damages (retroactive)Program changes based on community feedbackRetroactive adjustments applied automatically to prior claimants

Answers to last quarter's watch list

2026 guidance and whether the 2028 EPS dollar bracket reappears. Resolved negatively. 2026 guidance came in at $5.90–$6.20 (midpoint $6.05), a 7.6% decline from FY2025's $6.55 actual. The 5–7% CAGR window was shifted from 2025–2028 to 2028–2030 — the 2028 dollar bracket did not reappear; instead, 2028 is now the start year of the growth phase, not the endpoint. The mathematical implication flagged in the Q3 brief — that a lower base lowers the 2028 endpoint — has been confirmed in structural form. Status: Resolved negatively.
Cost-of-capital proposed decision in November. Not addressed in this release or Q&A. The 2026 guidance bridge cited financing/tax drag among the $0.25 of one-time headwinds but did not call out the cost-of-capital PD specifically. Status: Continue monitoring.
Eaton recovery compensation program launch and first loss-estimate disclosure. Partially resolved. The WRCP is live with $1.1B in losses recorded (WRCP payments plus two subrogation settlements at ~55¢), and program enhancements were announced (FMV tenant rent support, 20% legal fee coverage, both retroactive). However, management cannot provide a low end of total liability — 2,300 of 18,000 eligible claims submitted, 590 offers made — citing accounting-confidence standards. The liability range remains unbounded inside the ~$4B SB 254 cap. Status: Continue monitoring.
Phase 2 SB 254 process milestones — April 1 final report. Process is underway with constructive thematic alignment per management; CPUC publicly acknowledged utilities cannot be sole risk-bearers. No outcome prediction offered. Status: Continue monitoring.
Preferred equity refinancing timing. Not specifically addressed in Q&A coverage available; management reiterated no equity issuance through 2030. Status: Continue monitoring.

What to watch into next quarter

First disclosed low end of Eaton total liability range. With $1.1B recorded and only 13% of eligible claims submitted, watch for the first quarter management can produce a bounded liability range under accounting standards. The gap between recorded losses and ultimate exposure is the single largest unresolved variable on the equity.

2026 quarterly cadence vs. the $5.90–$6.20 guide. Management's bridge embeds $0.25 of one-time headwinds; watch the Q1 print to see whether the $0.11 regulatory true-up drag materializes as guided and whether the implied 3.5% midpoint growth from the $5.84 baseline holds.

AMI 2.0 filing and CPUC review timeline. Filing expected within the next few months; ~18-month approval cycle. Watch whether the $1.5B in-plan capital ($2026–2030) and $1.5B post-2030 split survives CPUC review without a haircut that would compress the rate-base growth supporting 2027–2030 EPS.

April 1 CEA report on SB 254 Phase 2. Watch whether the framework holds the line on no upfront shareholder contribution and whether SCE's allocation share differs materially from PG&E/SDG&E.

May 2027 GRC filing scoping. Management flagged this as the potential 2029–2030 EPS step-up driver. Watch for early commentary on the capital ask and rate-base growth expectations that would anchor the upper end of the 5–7% 2028–2030 CAGR.

Sources

  1. Edison International Q4 2025 / FY2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed February 18, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827052/000082705226000010/eix-2026x02x18exx991.htm
  2. Q4 2025 Edison International earnings call, Q&A transcript.
  3. Tapebrief Q3 2025 and Q2 2025 EIX briefs (for prior guidance baseline and watch-list context).

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