EQT · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

EQT Corporation

Reported April 21, 2026

30-second summary

EQT delivered 618 Bcfe of production (above the prior 550–600 Bcfe guide), $1.83B of FCF attributable to EQT, and $5.08/Mcfe realized pricing. GAAP net income attributable to EQT was $1.49B (adjusted net income $1.47B), diluted GAAP EPS $2.36 and adjusted EPS $2.33 beat consensus of $2.16 by 7.9%. GAAP total operating revenues of $3.38B compare to a $3.24B consensus estimate (+4.3% beat). The two material guidance shifts: FY2026 capex raised to $2.65–$2.85B (from $2.30–$2.40B prior, a $350–450M increase) reflecting accelerated growth investment, and Q2 includes 10–15 Bcfe of explicit strategic curtailments — the first time EQT has formally curtailed volumes into the guide. Net debt at $5.7B is approaching the $5B long-term debt target, meaning the buyback trigger Toby Rice's team laid out in prior quarters is now operationally close.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$2.33

+7.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$3.14B

+45.7% YoY

-3.1% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$1.83B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

60.3%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$3.14B	+45.7%	$2.21B	+42.1%
EPS	$2.33	—	$0.90	+158.9%
Operating margin	60.3%	—	—	—
Free cash flow	$1.83B	—	$0.74B	+146.0%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Total sales volume	Q1 FY2026	550–600 Bcfe	618 Bcfe	+18-68 Bcfe above high end of guide	Beat
Operating costs per unit	Q1 FY2026	$1.06–$1.20 per Mcfe	$1.09/Mcfe	in-line with mid-range of guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Total sales volume	Q2 FY2026	570–620 Bcfe	—
Strategic curtailments	Q2 FY2026	10–15 Bcfe	—
Maintenance capital expenditures	Q2 FY2026	$525–$595 million	—
Growth capital expenditures	Q2 FY2026	$210–$235 million	—
Wells to be turned-in-line	Q2 FY2026	30–45 net wells	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Total sales volume	FY2026	2,325–2,375 Bcfe	2,275–2,375 Bcfe	-50 Bcfe at low end	Lowered
Average differential	FY2026	($0.60)–($0.50) per Mcf	($0.55)–($0.35) per Mcf	+$0.05 to +$0.15 per Mcf (less negative/higher differential)	Lowered
Capital expenditures (aggregate)	FY2026	$2,300–$2,400 million	$2,650–$2,850 million	+$350–$450 million	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Operating costs per unit ($1.07–$1.21 per Mcfe)

Segment KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
Natural Gas	$2.95B	+50.2%
Liquids (NGLs, Ethane, Oil)	$0.19B	-1.4%

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Total Sales Volume	618 Bcfe
Average Realized Price	$5.08/Mcfe
Operating Costs (per unit)	$1.09/Mcfe
Natural Gas Realized Price	$5.07/Mcf (after hedges)
Operating Cash Flow	$3.06 billion
Total Debt	$6.0 billion
Net Debt	$5.7 billion
Adjusted EBITDA	$2.55 billion (attributable to EQT)

Management tone

No transcript was available for this brief; tone analysis is sourced from the qualitative statements in the press release.

The dominant shift is the formal pivot from harvest-mode to growth-investment mode. This quarter total FY2026 capex was raised $350–450M, and management telegraphed Q2 as the peak quarterly capex of the year. The press release commentary frames it directly: "Second quarter capital expenditures are expected to represent the peak for the year, with capital levels anticipated to decline in the second half of 2026." The capex raise is not framed defensively — it is positioned as the operationalization of the in-basin power/data center thesis.

The second shift is the introduction of explicit strategic curtailments. This print discloses 10–15 Bcfe of planned Q2 curtailments. Combined with the lowered low end of FY volume guidance (2,275 vs. 2,325 Bcfe prior), management is signaling that supply discipline now ranks above volume maximization at the margin — a posture only a producer with a hardened balance sheet and a tightening basis view can take.

The third shift is the energy-security framing. The press release introduces geopolitical language: "Recent geopolitical developments underscore the importance of energy reliability, as global markets increasingly prioritize dependable supply." This is new register for an Appalachian E&P historically focused on basin economics, and it positions EQT's domestic supply contracts as strategically valuable beyond their commercial economics.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q1 FY2026 production print against 550–600 Bcfe guide — Resolved: actuals of 618 Bcfe came in above the high end on strong well performance, system pressure optimization, and execution during Winter Storm Fern.

Resolved positively

Capex landing within prior $2.30–$2.40B FY band — The prior FY band has been superseded; FY2026 capex was raised to $2.65–$2.85B, marking the formal transition to the growth phase rather than a discipline failure. Q2 capex of $735–$830M (maintenance + growth) is the peak.

Not resolved

Incremental power/data center deal announcements — The press release does not name a new bilateral deal; the geopolitical/power-demand language is qualitative.

Continue monitoring

Net debt trajectory toward $5B long-term ceiling — Net debt at $5.7B is ~$2.0B below YE 2025 and approaching the $5B long-term debt target. The buyback trigger is now operationally near.

Resolved positively

Realized differential vs. $(0.60)–$(0.50) guide — FY2026 differential guide tightened to $(0.55)–$(0.35) per Mcf, with the high end improving $0.15. The local-basis thesis continues to validate.

Resolved positively

2026 capex framing — Now disclosed: FY2026 capex $2.65–$2.85B (maintenance $2.07–$2.21B + growth $580–$640M). The maintenance-plus-growth split is explicit.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 FY2026 production print against 570–620 Bcfe guide, net of the 10–15 Bcfe curtailment — Watch whether curtailment volume lands at the disclosed level or expands; a higher curtailment in H2 would signal management is holding back more supply against the 2027 strip.

Buyback activation announcement — Net debt at $5.7B is approaching the $5B target. Watch whether the Q2 print initiates an opportunistic repurchase program or formalizes the trigger condition.

Capex landing within $2.65–$2.85B FY band given H2 step-down framing — Management says capital declines in H2 2026; watch whether Q3/Q4 guidance confirms the implied back-half cadence.

Named power/data center deal in 2026 — The demand-cluster narrative needs an incremental announcement in 2026 to sustain the multiple expansion thesis.

Realized differential trajectory — FY2026 high end improved to $(0.35)/Mcf. Watch whether Q2 prints inside the new tighter band or whether the structural basis tightening accelerates further.

Operating cost trajectory vs. raised FY range — FY opex band shifted up $0.04. Watch whether this is a conservative reset or whether per-unit costs run toward the high end as growth capex drives incremental gathering/LOE.

Sources

EQT Corporation Q1 FY2026 press release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33213/000003321326000028/ex9913312026earningsrelease.htm

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.