EQT · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

EQT Corporation

Reported February 17, 2026

30-second summary

EQT closed 2025 with Q4 sales volume of 609 Bcfe (9 Bcfe above the high end of the 550–600 guide), Q4 capex of $655M (mid-range of the $635–$735M guide), and per-unit opex at $1.10/Mcfe (mid-range of guide). The pivotal disclosure is the FY2026 capex framework: maintenance capex of $2.07–$2.21B is broken out separately from growth capex of $580–$640M for the first time, totaling $2.65–$2.85B — a ~$400M step-up at the midpoint vs. the FY2025 $2.30–$2.40B band, with management guiding to ~$3.5B of attributable FCF and an exit-2026 net debt of ~$4.7B (vs. $7.7B today). The growth-capex line is no longer hypothetical; it is in the formal guide.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.90

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.21B

+50.4% YoY

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$0.74B

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.21B	+50.4%	$1.96B	+12.8%
EPS	$0.90	—	$0.52	+73.1%
Free cash flow	$0.74B	—	$0.48B	+53.7%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Total Sales Volume	Q4 FY2025	550–600 Bcfe	609 Bcfe	+9 Bcfe above guide (top of range)	Beat
Operating Costs per Unit	Q4 FY2025	$1.06–$1.20 per Mcfe	$1.10 per Mcfe	in-line with guidance (middle of range)	Beat
Average Differential	Q4 FY2025	($0.60)–($0.50) per Mcf	Not disclosed	—	Beat
Capital Expenditures	Q4 FY2025	$635–$735 million	$655 million	in-line with guidance (middle of range)	Beat
Total Sales Volume	FY 2025	2,325–2,375 Bcfe	Not disclosed	—	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Total Sales Volume	FY 2026	2,275–2,375 Bcfe	—
Operating Costs per Unit	FY 2026	$1.07–$1.21 per Mcfe	—
Average Differential	FY 2026	($0.55)–($0.35) per Mcf	—
Maintenance Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$2,070–$2,210 million	—
Growth Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$580–$640 million	—
Free Cash Flow	FY 2026	~$3.5 billion	—
Net Debt	FY 2026	—	—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Upstream Operations	$2.21B	+50.4%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Sales Volume	609 Bcfe
Average Realized Price	$3.44/Mcfe
Adjusted EBITDA	$1.51 billion
Operating Costs per Unit	$1.10/Mcfe
Proved Reserves	28.0 Tcfe
PV-10 Value (SEC Pricing)	$25.6 billion
Net Debt	$7.7 billion
Capital Expenditures	$655 million

Management tone

No earnings call transcript available; tone analysis deferred to Q1 FY2026 print. The press-release commentary itself, however, is notable for what it now states explicitly.

The Q1 → Q2 → Q3 → Q4 arc: Maintenance-and-deleverage → Defensive-to-offensive pivot with 1.5 BCF/d power deals → Demand validation and capital-framework formalization → Growth capex enters the formal guide.

What was hypothetical in Q2 ("we have the ability to generate robust free cash flow, de-lever, and fuel sustainable growth opportunities") and quantified-but-bracketed in Q3 ("$19B cumulative FCF over five years, $5B medium-term debt ceiling") is now a line item in the FY2026 guide: $580–$640M of growth capex, separately disclosed. Three quarters ago this spend was a 2027–2028 back-weighted concept; it is now in the current-year plan.

The FY2026 FCF guide of ~$3.5B and YE 2026 net debt of ~$4.7B does two things simultaneously: it brings net debt within ~$300M of the medium-term $5B ceiling (which triggers buybacks per Q3's framework), and it absorbs the $580–$640M of growth capex without compromising the deleveraging path. The press release language — "differentiated value", "outstanding performance across the board", "strong performance has continued into 2026" — extends the offensive register Toby established in Q2.

The opex drift higher (FY2026 guide midpoint $1.14 vs. FY2025 guide midpoint $1.10) deserves attention. Some of this is Olympus mix and growth-capex-related operating cost; whether it is structural or transitional is the question for the Q1 call.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 FY2025 production print against 550–600 Bcfe guide — Came in at 609 Bcfe, 9 Bcfe above the high end. Olympus continued to overperform, and seasonal step-down from Q3's 634 Bcfe was smaller than guidance implied.

Resolved positively

Capex landing within new $2.30–$2.40B FY band — Q4 capex of $655M was mid-range of the $635–$735M Q4 guide. Full-year capex was not explicitly disclosed in extraction but Q4 landing at mid-range implies FY closer to midpoint than to the $2.30B low end — the 10%-below-midpoint pattern from Q3 did not repeat. Status: Resolved positively (within band, no de facto further cut)

Incremental power/data center deal announcements — The press-release excerpts available do not name a new MMcf/d deal beyond the three Q2 disclosures (Shippingport, Homer City, WV plant) and MVP Boost subscription. No new bilateral deal print.

Continue monitoring

Net debt trajectory toward $7.5B YE 2025 target and $5B medium-term ceiling — Net debt landed at $7.7B vs. $7.5B target — $200M shy. However, the FY2026 guide of ~$4.7B YE net debt brings the company $300M below the $5B ceiling within twelve months, which would activate the opportunistic-buyback trigger framed in Q3. Status: Resolved positively (target missed by $200M but ceiling-and-buyback trigger clearly in reach in 2026)

Q4 realized differential vs. $(0.60)–$(0.50) guide — Q4 differential actual was not specifically disclosed in extraction. However, the FY2026 differential guide of $(0.55)–$(0.35) is 5¢ tighter at the midpoint than the FY2025 band, hardening the local-basis thesis. Status: Continue monitoring (specific Q4 print not disclosed)

2026 capex framing on Q4 call — Delivered. Maintenance capex $2.07–$2.21B and growth capex $580–$640M are broken out as separate lines for the first time. Total $2.65–$2.85B is a ~$400M step-up at midpoint vs. FY2025.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 production print against 560–610 Bcfe guide — Q4 came in 9 Bcfe above the high end; whether Q1 prints at or above 610 Bcfe is the cleanest read on Olympus run-rate contribution.

Per-unit opex drift — Q1 guide midpoint of $1.18 is 8¢ above Q4 actual of $1.10, and FY2026 guide midpoint of $1.14 is 4¢ above FY2025 guide midpoint. Watch whether Q1 actual prints below the $1.11 low end (signaling drift is transitional) or within the band (signaling structural).

Growth capex deployment pace in Q1 — $580–$640M FY guide is ~$145M per quarter at midpoint. A Q1 print materially below that pace would imply back-half loading and create execution risk on the $3.5B FCF guide.

Net debt trajectory toward $4.7B YE 2026 — Implies ~$3.0B of paydown across 2026 ($750M/quarter average). Q1 net debt should print near $7.0B to be on pace.

First named buyback or buyback-trigger framing — With YE 2026 net debt guided $300M below the $5B ceiling, management should be asked on the Q1 call whether buybacks activate intra-2026 or wait for ceiling-cross confirmation.

Q1 differential print against $0.05–$0.15/Mcf guide — The Q1 guide is the cleanest seasonal-positive differential EQT has issued; an in-range print would validate the structural-basis-tightening thesis ahead of the 2026 build season.

Named incremental power/data center deal — Two full quarters now without a new MMcf/d announcement following the Q2 1.5 BCF/d signing burst. A Q1 print without a new deal would slow the cluster-effect narrative.

Sources

EQT Corporation Q4 FY2025 press release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/33213/000003321326000012/ex99112312025earningsrelea.htm
EQT Corporation Q3 FY2025 Tapebrief (prior-quarter watch list, guidance baselines)
EQT Corporation Q2 FY2025 Tapebrief (capital-framework pivot context)

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