GM · Q3 2025 Earnings

Cautious

General Motors

Reported October 21, 2025

30-second summary

Revenue was essentially flat at $48.6B (-0.3% YoY) and EBIT-adjusted came in at $3.38B (6.9% margin), while GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin held at 6.2% — essentially flat with Q2's 6.1% trough rather than a recovery. The headline is the guidance split: GM raised FY2025 EBIT-adjusted to $12.0–13.0B (low end +$2.0B) and adjusted automotive FCF to $10.0–11.0B (low end +$2.5B), while quietly cutting GAAP EPS to $8.30–9.05 (high end -$0.92) and net income to $7.7–8.3B (high end -$1.2B). Operating performance is tracking better than feared; GAAP earnings quality is not.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$2.80

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$48.59B

-0.3% YoY

Free cash flow

Q3 FY2025

$4.20B

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

2.2%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$48.59B	-0.3%	$47.12B	+3.1%
EPS	$2.80	—	$2.53	+10.7%
Operating margin	2.2%	—	4.5%	-230bps
Free cash flow	$4.20B	—	$2.83B	+48.6%

Guidance

GM lowered FY2025 GAAP earnings guidance while raising adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance, signaling a shift in earnings quality driven by non-operating headwinds.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Automotive operating cash flow	FY 2025	$19.2 billion - $21.2 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
EPS-diluted (GAAP)	FY 2025	$8.22 - $9.97	$8.30 - $9.05	High end lowered $0.92 (-9.2%); low end increased $0.08 (+1.0%); range narrowed from $1.75 to $0.75	Lowered
EPS-diluted-adjusted	FY 2025	$8.25 - $10.00	$9.75 - $10.50	Low end raised $1.50 (+18.2%); high end raised $0.50 (+5.0%); range shifted upward at midpoint by ~$1.0	Lowered
Net income attributable to stockholders	FY 2025	$7.7 - $9.5 billion	$7.7 - $8.3 billion	High end lowered $1.2 billion (-12.6%); low end unchanged; range narrowed from $1.8B to $0.6B	Lowered
EBIT-adjusted	FY 2025	$10.0 - $12.5 billion	$12.0 - $13.0 billion	Low end raised $2.0 billion (+20.0%); high end raised $0.5 billion (+4.0%); range shifted materially upward	Lowered
Adjusted automotive free cash flow	FY 2025	$7.5 - $10.0 billion	$10.0 - $11.0 billion	Low end raised $2.5 billion (+33.3%); high end raised $1.0 billion (+10.0%); range shifted upward and widened from $2.5B to $1.0B	Raised

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
GM North America (GMNA)	$40.551B	-1.5%
GM International (GMI)	$3.645B	+3.6%
GM Financial	$4.335B	+7.6%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Wholesale vehicle sales	977 thousand units
North America wholesale sales	840 thousand units
US market share	17.0%

Profitability

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
EBIT-adjusted	$3.376 billion
EBIT-adjusted margin	6.9%
Net income margin	2.7%
Adjusted automotive free cash flow	$4.201 billion
Automotive operating cash flow	$6.070 billion

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
North America	$40.678B	-1.4%

Management tone

Q4 FY2024 capacity expansion → Q1 FY2025 tariff impact assessment → Q2 FY2025 tariff mitigation sequencing → Q3 FY2025 earnings-quality bifurcation.

Tariff framing tightened from "structural mitigation in 18 months" to a quantified runway. Last quarter Jacobson sketched ~30% mitigation across manufacturing, cost, and pricing. This quarter, in response to UBS's Joseph Speck, management raised the offset rate to ~35% and narrowed the gross tariff impact from $4–5B to $3.5–4.5B, with the MSRP-offset eligibility expansion broadening qualifying parts. Critically, management reiterated that 2026 will benefit from a full year of mitigation even with one extra quarter to lap — the signal investors wanted in Q2 FY2025 is now explicit.

EV positioning completed the arc from inevitability to discipline. In Q2 FY2025, the $600M LOCM charge prompted a pivot toward "manufacturing flexibility." This quarter, with EV sales hitting a record 67K units and 16.5% share, Barra told Barclays' Dan Levy that GM is going to build to consumer demand and not overbuild, and pointed to October demand softening continuing into early 2026. The framing is now: take the Q3 FY2025 pull-ahead, normalize volumes, and lean on LMR batteries and dedicated platforms for unit-economics improvement rather than pushing volume.

The autonomy story was redirected, not deferred. Asked by TD Cowen's Itai Michaeli about the next generation of Super Cruise and the journey to personal AVs, Mary Barra reframed the strategy around personal-vehicle autonomy and Super Cruise, citing 500K+ Super Cruise customers (nearly doubled YoY) and integration with Google Maps for route-following. Management disclosed ~$2B in YTD revenue across OnStar, Super Cruise, and other software services, with deferred revenue up 14% from Q2 FY2025 to almost $5B, off a base of 11M OnStar subscribers (+34% YoY), and guided to ~70% gross margins on software and services. Detailed 2026 milestones were deferred to the GM Forward Media Day.

Margin restoration moved from aspirational to bridgeable. Goldman's Mark Delaney pressed on the path back to 8–10% GMNA EBIT margins. Management's answer — tariff burden reduction, warranty expense stabilization (a $900M YoY headwind in Q3 FY2025), EV capacity right-sizing, and a more rational EV competitive environment — is concrete enough that analysts can model it. The Q2 FY2025 tone of "trust the $4B investment" has become "here are the four levers."

Q&A highlights

Joseph Speck · UBS

Unpacking tariff mitigation: How does the MSRP offset work with the expanded parts eligibility, and what is the runway for cost and footprint actions into 2026?

The MSRP offset expansion allows more parts to be designated into 232, broadening eligible parts for U.S. production. Go-to-market showed early wins; footprint changes will materialize late 2026/early 2027 when capex comes online. No Korea tariff changes in current guidance; management expects net tariff exposure lower in 2026 despite an extra quarter to lap.

Tariff guidance improved from $4-5B gross to $3.5-4.5B~35% offset rate from go-to-market, cost, and footprint initiativesCapital expenditures expected at lower end of $10-11B rangeNo Korea tariff resolution assumed in 2025 guidance

Dan Levy · Barclays

What parameters underpin EV loss reduction expectations, and how does GM justify continued EV sales without regulatory mandates if those vehicles are unprofitable on a variable basis?

Management expects EV demand to normalize after the Q3 pull-ahead. Retail EVs are strong sellers; focus is on cost reduction (LMR batteries, complexity reduction, dedicated platforms) rather than volume growth. Will build to consumer demand, not overbuild. EV market expected to stabilize as competitors stop liquidating inventory at cost.

EV sales reached record 67,000 units in Q3 with 16.5% market shareOctober saw significant demand softening expected to continue into early 2026GM EV incentives roughly half the industry averagePlans to leverage new battery chemistries (LMR) and dedicated platforms for cost reduction

Mark Delaney · Goldman Sachs

What must happen to restore 8-10% North America EBIT margins, and is that feasible without substantial tariff relief?

Margin restoration relies on multiple levers: net tariff burden reduction (via deals or self-help), warranty expense stabilization (cash outflows already stabilizing), right-sizing EV capacity, and competing in a more natural (less compliance-driven) EV demand environment. Management confident it can achieve this over time assuming similar macro.

6.2% North America Q3 EBIT margins excluding tariffs would have been ~9%Warranty expense $900M headwind in Q3 year-over-yearQ3 EBIT adjusted $3.4B, down $700M YoY largely due to tariffs2025 guidance raised to $12-13B EBIT adjusted

Adam Jonas · Morgan Stanley

On autonomy, given recent progress in robotaxis, is GM ruling out RoboTaxi or is the focus on personal autonomy first? What milestones should we expect for 2026?

GM is focused on personal autonomy and level 4 for individual vehicles, not RoboTaxi 1.0 today. Consumer preference for vehicle ownership remains strong. Super Cruise continues to improve (70% gross margins); team working aggressively with Sterling Anderson leading autonomy work. More milestones to be shared at GM Forward Media Day and in 2026 guidance.

Super Cruise revenue ~$200M (implied from $2B software/services revenue)Super Cruise gross margins approximately 70%500,000+ Super Cruise customers, nearly doubled YoYOnStar subscribers 11M, up 34% YoY

Ryan Brinkman · JP Morgan

On GM Financial portfolio performance and consumer health: What stress-test scenarios has GM considered, and is the portfolio resilient to employment weakness?

GM Financial portfolio remains resilient with predominantly prime credit mix. Charge-offs flat YoY at 1.2%. Even subprime (small portion) performing as expected. Strong balance sheet allows GM Financial to weather unemployment increases. Consumer remains resilient, particularly given breadth of GM product across price points.

GM Financial Q3 EBT adjusted $800MCharge-off rate 1.2%, flat year-over-yearGM Financial guidance $2.5-3B EBT adjusted for full yearDividend paid $350M in Q3

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin recovers above 6.1% — Not yet. Q3 FY2025 GMNA EBIT margin was 6.2% (or ~9% ex-tariffs), essentially flat with Q2's 6.1%. The total EBIT-adjusted margin was 6.9%. The FY EBIT-adjusted low end was raised $2.0B to $12.0B, removing low-end risk concerns, but GMNA segment margin has not yet inflected. Status: Continue monitoring.

EV inventory direction post-LOCM — No second LOCM charge was disclosed this quarter. EV sales hit a record 67K units with 16.5% market share, and management noted EV inventory was actively reduced by almost 30% since the end of Q2 FY2025. Management flagged October demand softening continuing into early 2026 after the consumer tax credit expiration pull-ahead. Status: Continue monitoring.

Korea trade-deal headlines — Unresolved. Management explicitly said no Korea tariff resolution is baked into FY2025 guidance. Any deal remains pure upside not yet captured. Status: Continue monitoring.

Q3 FY2025 explicit pricing realization in GMNA — Jacobson said pricing was up modestly year over year, with model year 2026 incremental pricing partially offset by a small fleet headwind; FY North American pricing is still expected to be up half a point to 1%. U.S. share at 17.0% (+50bps YoY) with incentives below industry average for 10 consecutive quarters suggests GM is not chasing volume. Status: Resolved.

Capital return pacing vs. FCF — Significantly raised. Adjusted automotive FCF guide moved from $7.5–10.0B to $10.0–11.0B (low end +$2.5B); Q3 FY2025 alone generated $4.20B of adjusted FCF. GM Financial paid a $350M dividend to GM, and GM repurchased $1.5B of stock in the quarter ($3.5B YTD). Diluted share count down 15% YoY to 954M. Status: Resolved positively.

What to watch into next quarter

Q4 FY2025 GAAP EPS print vs. the new $8.30–9.05 FY range — implied Q4 GAAP EPS is roughly $0.60–1.35. A print at the low end confirms the below-the-line items driving the GAAP cut are real and likely recurring; near the high end suggests one-time noise. The gap between adjusted ($10.13 midpoint) and GAAP ($8.68 midpoint) EPS is the cleanest read on earnings quality.

EV unit trajectory through October–December — management flagged October demand softening continuing into early 2026. Watch whether Q4 FY2025 EV units hold above 50K (vs. Q3 FY2025's 67K record) or whether the post-tax-credit air pocket is deeper than guided.

Korea trade-deal headlines — explicitly not in the guide. Any settlement is direct 2026 EBIT upside.

Buyback pacing against the raised $10.0–11.0B FCF floor — Q3 FY2025 FCF of $4.20B, $1.5B of buybacks in the quarter, and a much firmer FY floor should translate into accelerated repurchase cadence; if it doesn't, that's a signal management is reserving cash for tariff/EV uncertainty.

GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin path toward 8–10% — management laid out four levers. Watch Q4 FY2025 margin and 2026 framing at GM Forward Media Day for evidence that warranty stabilization and tariff offset are translating into margin recovery, not just being absorbed.

Sources

GM Q3 FY2025 press release and financial highlights — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785825000141/gmq32025pressreleaseandfin.htm
GM Q3 FY2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with Joseph Speck/UBS, Itai Michaeli/TD Cowen, Dan Levy/Barclays, Mike Ward/Citi, Mark Delaney/Goldman Sachs, Ryan Brinkman/JP Morgan)

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