GM · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

General Motors

Reported January 27, 2026

30-second summary

GM posted a Q4 GAAP loss of $3.31B (-$3.60 EPS) driven by previously flagged below-the-line charges, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.51 and 6.3% operating margin showed the underlying business held up; FY2025 closed at $185.0B revenue (-1.3%) and $10.60 adjusted EPS. The headline is the 2026 guide — EPS-diluted-adjusted $11.00–13.00, EBIT-adjusted $13.0–15.0B, and adjusted automotive FCF $9.0–11.0B — all above the FY2025 ranges and accompanied by a dividend increase and forward buyback commitment. The Q3 prediction that GAAP earnings quality was deteriorating was confirmed (Q4 GAAP loss); the prediction that operations were tracking better than feared was also confirmed (raised FY guide hit, 2026 guide higher).

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.51

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$45.29B

-5.1% YoY

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$2.75B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

6.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$45.29B	-5.1%	$48.59B	-6.8%
EPS	$2.51	—	$2.80	-10.4%
Operating margin	6.3%	—	2.2%	+410bps
Free cash flow	$2.75B	—	$4.20B	-34.4%

Guidance

GM substantially raised full-year FY2025 earnings guidance (EPS to $11.00-$13.00, EBIT-adjusted to $13.0-$15.0B, net income to $10.3-$11.7B), signaling strong Q4 performance and upside to initial expectations.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Capital spending	FY 2025	$10.0 billion - $12.0 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
EPS-diluted	FY 2025	$8.30 - $9.05	$11.00 - $13.00	+$2.70 - $3.95 at low/high end (substantial upgrade)	Raised
EPS-diluted-adjusted	FY 2025	$9.75 - $10.50	$11.00 - $13.00	+$1.25 - $3.25 at low/high end	Raised
Net income attributable to stockholders	FY 2025	$7.7 billion - $8.3 billion	$10.3 billion - $11.7 billion	+$2.6 billion - $3.4 billion	Raised
EBIT-adjusted	FY 2025	$12.0 billion - $13.0 billion	$13.0 billion - $15.0 billion	+$1.0 billion - $2.0 billion	Raised
Automotive operating cash flow	FY 2025	$19.2 billion - $21.2 billion	$19.0 billion - $23.0 billion	-$0.2B at low end; +$1.8B at high end (widened range, net neutral to slightly raised midpoint)	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted automotive free cash flow ($9.0 billion - $11.0 billion)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
GMNA	$36.893B	-6.7%
GMI	$4.029B	+0.9%
GM Financial	$4.304B	+4.6%
China equity loss	$(513) million	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Wholesale vehicle sales	937 thousand units
North America market share	16.2%
Fleet sales as % of total vehicle sales	19.6%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin	6.1%
GMI EBIT-adjusted margin	6.9%
Automotive operating cash flow	$5.606 billion
Adjusted automotive free cash flow margin	6.1%

Management tone

Q1 tariff impact assessment → Q2 tariff mitigation sequencing → Q3 earnings-quality bifurcation → Q4 confidence reset with capital return.

Three quarters ago, management quantified the tariff hit; two quarters ago, sequenced the mitigation; one quarter ago, flagged the GAAP/adjusted divergence as Q4 would absorb the charges. This quarter, with the GAAP loss now booked (-$3.31B Q4), management pivoted to a forward narrative built on the dividend increase and "planning future share repurchases" — phrasing that signals not just commitment but a re-acceleration of returns. The Q4 GAAP loss is the cost of clearing the deck for a cleaner 2026.

The tariff narrative completed its arc from passive absorption to active offset architecture. In Q&A, Jacobson told Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco that 2026 net tariff exposure should be lower than 2025 — the result of annualizing 2025's 40% offset rate plus incremental self-help. The $3–4B gross tariff cost guidance for 2026 assumes a 15% Korea tariff; the overnight headlines flagging potential reversion to 25% mean the guide has explicit policy risk that could swing the FY EBIT range by $1B+.

EV positioning is now permanently in "demand-driven" mode, not transitional. Barra told TD Cowen's Isai McKelly that the team will maximize ICE production where possible and that observed 6-month demand-adjustment lags in other markets post-incentive-removal inform GM's planning. The Q1 EV inevitability framing is gone; replaced by a portfolio strategy where the next-gen SDB 2.0 architecture (launching 2028 on Cadillac Escalade IQ) runs across both ICE and EV — Speck at UBS got management to confirm this explicitly. This is the cleanest signal yet that GM is not betting the platform on a forced EV transition timeline.

The new-truck story was repriced to 2027, not 2026. McKelly pressed on the full-size pickup launch embedded in the 2026 guide; Jacobson conceded volume impacts hit 2026 but the pricing tailwind is "more of a 2027 tailwind" given low-inventory/low-incentive dynamics today. This is a meaningful expectations reset — investors looking for a 2026 truck-cycle bump should recalibrate to a 2027 setup.

Q&A highlights

Dan Levy · Barclays

Addressed pricing assumptions for 2026 given demand-constrained environment and competitive pressure, noting GM achieved ~$1.5B positive pricing in 2025. Questioned how flat-to-up pricing guidance is achievable without significant increases, and whether benefits come from ICE mix or other dynamics.

Paul Jacobson clarified that flat-to-up pricing reflects annualization of 2026 model year price increases implemented late 2025, with no additional price increases assumed. Management is watching market conditions monthly but confident in vehicles and upcoming truck launches to maintain commercial momentum without significant pricing changes.

Guidance assumes flat-to-up pricing (0-0.5% range)No incremental price increases modeled into guidanceReflects annualization of 2026 model year prices only$1.5B positive pricing achieved in 2025

Joe Speck · UBS

Asked about hybrid portfolio evolution (traditional vs. plug-in/eREV), capitalization in $10-12B capex guidance, and whether next-gen software-defined vehicle architecture (launching 2028) will be available across ICE and EV platforms. Also requested clarification on $1-1.5B onshoring and software expense split.

Mary Barra confirmed all announced products are included in $10-12B capex. Next-gen SDB platform and Super Cruise will be available on both ICE and EV. Hybrids planned in segments with highest demand; management declined to specify segments but reiterated 4-year share growth despite competitors adding hybrids, indicating product portfolio strength. Paul Jacobson split onshoring/software ~50-50, with ramp-up costs offset by future production benefits; software investment ongoing.

SDB 2.0 architecture launching 2028 on Cadillac Escalade IQ for both ICE and EVSuper Cruise available across ICE and EV platformsHybrids planned for high-demand segments (specifics not disclosed)$1-1.5B onshoring/software headwind split ~50-50

Andrew Percoco · Morgan Stanley

Questioned tariff guidance of $3-4B for 2026 assuming 15% Korea tariff, noting overnight headlines suggest potential reversion to 25%. Asked what happens to guidance if tariff increases, and requested clarification on tariff mitigation strategy (achieved 40% offset in 2025) and confidence level for 2026.

Mary Barra stated GM is encouraging countries to obtain regulatory/legal approvals for the October-negotiated 15% Korea deal and remains hopeful. Paul Jacobson detailed self-help offsets: go-to-market actions, manufacturing additions (onshoring) providing 2027 offsets, and annualization of 2025 fixed-cost reductions. Guided for net tariff exposure lower in 2026 than 2025 due to annualization benefits, expecting similar or better than 40% offset achieved in 2025.

$3-4B gross tariff cost guidance assumes 15% Korea tariff40% gross tariff offset achieved in 2025Self-help levers: go-to-market, manufacturing footprint shifts, fixed-cost reductionsAnnualization of 2025 offsets expected to improve net tariff position in 2026

Isai McKelly · TD Cowan

Asked about full-size pickup launch embedded in 2026 guidance, specifically quantifying downtime impacts, timing of volume/price/mix benefits (2026 vs. 2027), and EV volume decline implications for incremental ICE demand and inventory/wholesale planning.

Paul Jacobson noted downtime required for retooling new Silverado/Sierra but manageable through pre-build strategy; volume impact expected in 2026 with pricing benefits more of a 2027 tailwind. Expected pricing dynamics less dramatic than historical model refreshes due to low inventory/low incentive environment. Mary Barra stated EV market timing remains uncertain (6-month lag observed in markets where incentives removed), and team will maximize ICE production where possible while staying tight on inventory.

New truck launch downtime embedded in 2026 guidanceVolume impacts expected in 2026; pricing benefits largely 2027 tailwindPre-build strategy to partially offset downtimeEV market dynamics uncertain; 6-month demand adjustment lag observed in other markets

Mark Delaney · Goldman Sachs

Asked about Super Cruise revenue growth assumption ($234M in 2025 to ~$400M in 2026), drivers of step-up, and broader OnStar digital services momentum beyond Super Cruise. Also questioned China profit stability outlook given potential market softening post-stimulus and asked what offsets would protect GM's results if broader China demand declines.

Paul Jacobson explained Super Cruise revenue growth driven by (1) three-year prepaid service amortization as vehicles sold with Super Cruise increase, and (2) strong renewal attachment rates in low-40% range after three-year term. OnStar basics package included with vehicles amortizes over vehicle life at software-like margins; engagement platform for enhanced services, GM Rewards, and future SDV opportunities. Mary Barra addressed China: new energy vehicle portfolio (50%+ of sales), in-China-for-China solutions, inventory/incentive discipline improving dealer profitability, and strong Cadillac/Buick brands supporting premium positioning. Expects competitive but stable performance.

Super Cruise revenue growth from three-year prepaid service amortization and renewalsSuper Cruise renewal attachment rate: low 40%OnStar deferred revenue expected ~$7.5B by end 2026 (up from $5.4B end 2025)China new energy vehicles 50%+ of sales, profitable across all price points

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 FY2025 GAAP EPS print vs. the new $8.30–9.05 FY range — Q4 GAAP EPS came in at -$3.60 (Q4 net loss of $3.31B), reflecting the below-the-line items flagged last quarter. FY non-GAAP EPS landed at $10.60, above the raised $9.75–10.50 range. The GAAP/adjusted gap was even wider than the Q3 framing suggested. Status: Resolved negatively (on GAAP earnings quality), Resolved positively (on operational adjusted print).

EV unit trajectory through October–December — GM did not break out a Q4 EV unit count in the headline disclosure. Barra's Q&A commentary about maximizing ICE production and observed 6-month demand adjustment lags suggests EV volumes softened post-tax-credit; specifics weren't disclosed on the print. Status: Continue monitoring.

Korea trade-deal headlines — Still unresolved. The 2026 guide assumes a 15% Korea tariff (the October-negotiated rate); overnight headlines flagged potential reversion to 25%. Barra said GM is "encouraging countries to obtain regulatory/legal approvals." Direct risk to the 2026 EBIT range. Status: Continue monitoring.

Buyback pacing against the raised $10.0–11.0B FCF floor — FY2025 adjusted automotive FCF landed at $10.60B (inside the raised range). Management committed to a dividend increase and "planning future share repurchases" — language signaling re-acceleration. Specific FY2025 buyback dollars not in headline data. Status: Resolved positively (on commitment), Continue monitoring (on cadence).

GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin path toward 8–10% — Q4 GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin was 6.1% — three consecutive quarters now at the 6.1–6.2% floor. The four levers Jacobson outlined last quarter (warranty stabilization, tariff offset, EV right-sizing, demand normalization) have not yet inflected the segment margin. The 2026 EBIT-adjusted midpoint of $14.0B implies blended margin expansion but no explicit GMNA segment guide was provided. Status: Continue monitoring.

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin breaking above 6.2% — three quarters at the floor. First sign of the four-lever recovery has to show up here for the 2026 EBIT-adjusted midpoint of $14.0B to be credible.

Korea tariff rate — guide assumes 15%. A reversion to 25% likely shaves $1B+ from EBIT-adjusted. Watch trade announcements through Q1.

Adjusted FCF cadence vs. the $9.0–11.0B range — the $1.0B lower floor vs. FY2025 deserves scrutiny. Q1 FCF below ~$1.5B (vs. typical seasonal patterns) signals the low end is in play.

China equity loss trajectory after -$513M in Q4 — sharp deterioration from recent stabilization commentary. Watch whether this is a one-time restructuring mark or a new run-rate.

EV unit disclosure and the post-tax-credit demand picture — management said 6-month lag observed elsewhere. Q1 FY2026 is the first clean read on whether GM EV demand stabilizes at a lower run-rate or continues sliding.

Buyback dollars deployed in Q1 — dividend raise plus "planning future share repurchases" needs to translate into actual quarterly pace. Q1 buyback below $1.5B would signal management hedging on tariff/EV uncertainty despite the tone.

Sources

GM Q4 FY2025 press release and financial highlights — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000011/gmq42025pressreleaseandfin.htm
GM Q4 FY2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with Dan Levy/Barclays, Joe Speck/UBS, Andrew Percoco/Morgan Stanley, Isai McKelly/TD Cowen, Mark Delaney/Goldman Sachs)

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.