ICE · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Intercontinental Exchange

Reported April 30, 2026

30-second summary

Intercontinental Exchange opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of $3.0B (+20% YoY), adjusted EPS of $2.35, and adjusted operating margin of 65%, with all three segments hitting record results simultaneously — Exchanges +30%, FID&S +10%, Mortgage Tech +6%. Management raised full-year adjusted OpEx guidance by ~$50M at the midpoint to $4.145–$4.195B while quietly withdrawing FY CapEx ($740–$790M prior), FY tax rate (24–26% prior), and FY share count (568–574M prior) guides — providing only Q2 quarterly substitutes. The signal: management is leaning harder into AI, tokenization, and energy investment than the prior guide accommodated, and is withholding annualized commitment on the variable pieces while the spending posture firms up.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$2.35

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$3.00B

+20.0% YoY

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$1.15B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

56.0%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$3.00B	+20.0%	$2.50B	+19.8%
EPS	$2.35	—	$1.71	+37.4%
Operating margin	56.0%	—	49.0%	+700bps
Free cash flow	$1.15B	—	—	—

Guidance

Operating expense guidance raised for full-year 2026 as company provides quarterly detail; multiple full-year metrics withdrawn from guidance.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
GAAP Operating Expenses	Q2 FY2026	$1.280 billion to $1.290 billion	—
Adjusted Operating Expenses	Q2 FY2026	$1.030 billion to $1.040 billion	—
GAAP Non-Operating Expense	Q2 FY2026	$160 million to $165 million	—
Adjusted Non-Operating Expense	Q2 FY2026	$180 million to $185 million	—
Diluted Share Count	Q2 FY2026	565 million to 571 million weighted average shares outstanding	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
GAAP Operating Expenses	FY 2026	$5.010 - $5.075 billion	$5.095 billion to $5.145 billion	+$85M to +$70M at midpoint (midpoint raised ~$20M)	Raised
Adjusted Operating Expenses	FY 2026	$4.075 - $4.140 billion	$4.145 billion to $4.195 billion	+$70M to +$55M across range (midpoint raised ~$50M)	Raised
Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$740 - $790 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2026	24% - 26%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding	FY 2026	568 - 574 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
Exchanges	$1.781B	+30.0%
Fixed Income and Data Services	$0.657B	+10.0%
Mortgage Technology	$0.539B	+6.0%

Capital & returns

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Outstanding Debt	$20.4 billion

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Adjusted Operating Margin	65%
Operating Margin	56%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow	$1.15 billion
Recurring Revenues	$1.32 billion
Transaction Revenues	$1.66 billion
Exchanges Operating Margin	79%
Fixed Income and Data Services Operating Margin	42%

Management tone

Q2 2025: All-weather compounder → Q3 2025: AI platform and on-chain banking pivot → Q4 2025: Operationalized execution → Q1 2026: Three-segment simultaneous compounding

The structural compounding claim now has empirical support. Through three prior briefs, management built a narrative that the model compounds whether or not all segments are firing — a defensive framing for periods when only one or two segments led. This quarter the language shifted from "the model still compounds even when segments aren't in sync" to a record across all three simultaneously. From the call: "This quarter demonstrates what this platform can deliver when all three segments are executing well simultaneously. But even when they are not all in sync, as has been the case in prior quarters, the model still compounds." Management is now claiming both bull-case upside and bear-case floor in the same sentence — a posture only available with proof on the table.

AI moved from H1 2026 deployment commitment to "operating model." Q3 2025 introduced ICE Aurora as a branded platform with no quantification. Q4 2025 enumerated four agents launching in H1 2026. Q1 2026 reframes AI as already-deployed production infrastructure and, more interestingly, as a data-side moat: "customers are embedding our proprietary and secure real-time data for inference in their workflows, not simply consuming it to train models and then move on...as these use cases deepen demand for ICE's proprietary data increases rather than decreases." This is a direct counter to the bear thesis that AI commoditizes market data — management is asserting inference workloads are a structural demand multiplier, not a substitution risk.

Energy framing now anchors to persistence rather than volatility capture. Q2 2025 positioned energy as all-weather; Q3 2025 layered AI data-center demand; Q4 2025 added geopolitical complexity. Q1 2026 layers the final claim — that customers who arrive during volatility stay through normalization: "Historically, participants who come onto our platform during periods of heightened volatility stay once conditions normalize...energy open interest through April remains up 6%...interest rate open interest stands 63% above year-ago levels, signaling structural expansion." The progression collapses every prior caveat about energy being cyclical into a single multi-year structural growth claim.

Tokenization moved from regulatory pathway to active engineering partnership. Q4 2025 disclosed the NYSE tokenization SEC filing under existing federal law, decoupled from the Clarity Act. Q1 2026 adds a named technical collaborator: "Polymarket's engineering team is collaborating with us concerning on-chain settlement and 24 by 7 capital movement." From speculative stake (Q3 2025) → infrastructure thesis (Q3 2025) → regulatory filing (Q4 2025) → joint engineering on settlement primitives (Q1 2026) is one of the cleanest quarter-by-quarter de-risking arcs in this coverage.

Mortgage Tech tone has flipped to clearly offensive. Q3 2025 was defense (Flagstar roll-off, PennyMac quantified at 0.5pt drag). Q4 2025 inflected to constructive (90 Encompass deals, refi pool quantified). Q1 2026 is fully offensive: 30 Q4 Encompass closes including largest correspondent and largest HELOC lenders, UWM live, Huntington Bank closed in April, legacy Encompass transaction revenue +30% last quarter, Basel rule changes flagged as a regulatory tailwind that re-incentivizes banks into MSR. The +6% segment growth understates the deal-flow momentum.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

All-weather business model performing across cyclesAI integration into systems of record and regulated workflowsStructural tailwinds in digital modernization and data-driven automationRecord open interest signaling persistent customer positioning, not speculationPlatform defensibility through proprietary data, evaluated pricing, and network effectsTokenization and crypto convergence as regulated market infrastructure plays

Risks management surfaced:

Forward-looking statements subject to risks, assumptions, and uncertaintiesMacroeconomic volatility impacts on fixed income marketsMortgage origination market remaining below long-run normalized potentialRegulatory uncertainty around AI usage in mortgage lending (GSE guidelines)Execution risk on tokenized securities platform regulatory approval

Q&A highlights

Ken Worthington · JPMorgan

Secular growth opportunity in energy trading business and Gulf Oil expansion. Specifically asked about ICE's market share in Gulf Oil, transition from Cushing to Midland physical delivery, and capacity to ship to Asia.

Ben highlighted that HOU (Houston) contract has 2-3x more physical deliveries than Cushing competitor, with 9M barrels in March alone vs Cushing's 1.6M. Emphasized HOU as best price point for WTI oil moving to Brent spec and that supply chain rewiring driven by Iran situation creates multi-year structural repricing opportunity across energy, with ICE positioned as only end-to-end solution for clients managing these risks.

HOU contract: 9 million barrels delivered in March 2025 vs Cushing's 1.6 millionHOU historically sees 2-3x deliveries of Cushing competitorDated Brent spot market pricing is 100% ICE marketAsian buyers lining up for alternative crude, refined products, and LNG sources

Chris Allen · KPW

Health of energy marketplace given recent volume pullback. Questioned whether market has tilted into bad volatility territory, market exhaustion, or if major players are sidelined with meaningful losses.

Ben asserted energy markets remain healthy with open interest higher than year-end across all major contracts (futures and options), hitting all-time records in past week. Cited options OI up 40% franchise-wide, with oil/gas/environmental options up ~25%. Emphasized growing participation across energy markets and data subscriptions at or near all-time highs, driven by structural multi-year rewiring of global energy supply chains.

Open interest at or above year-end levels across energy, oil, Brent, gas, and TTF futures and optionsOpen interest hit all-time records in the past weekOptions OI up 40% across options franchiseOil, gas, and environmental options OI up approximately 25%

Michael Cypress · Morgan Stanley

Tokenization and blockchain-based settlement. Asked how instant settlement capabilities would impact clearing revenues, collateral economics, and what gating factors (regulatory, technology, client readiness) determine timing of adoption.

Jeff framed tokenization as rewiring of money/value movement to the internet, enabling faster settlement and self-custody. Predicted increased trading volume as barrier to entry lowers (analogizing to equity T+2 to T+1 transition). Noted ICE building MCP server for AI and potential validator role on-chain, while maintaining conventional platform matching but moving title transfer and capital via encrypted tokens. Identified quantum computing/hacking as potential risk to adoption.

Tokenization expected to increase trading volume through faster, cheaper capital movementICE launched IRM2 clearing model correlating with volume growth reportedEquity settlement improvement (T+2 to T+1) drove volume growth; same expected from tokenizationICE building MCP server for AI and reference data oracle potential

Brian Vidal · Deutsche Bank

Fixed Income Data & Tech (FIDS) segment showing straight-line growth acceleration (5% to 9% YoY recurring revenue growth over 5 quarters). Asked about top 2-3 organic drivers, 2026 outlook, Polymarket initiative inclusion, and whether mid-single-digit guidance is conservative.

Chris cited three drivers: (1) proprietary data leverage in regulatory-dependent use cases, (2) flexible delivery mechanisms (MCP servers, etc.), and (3) new use cases like Polymarket/sentiment data. Warren acknowledged strong first-half performance gave confidence in higher-end mid-single-digit guidance but cautioned H2 would face tougher comps from data center expansion and flagged AUM revenue unpredictability. Noted Hall 5 fully deployed, Hall 6 and 7 coming next year.

FIDS recurring revenue grew from 5% to 9% YoY over last 5 quartersData and tech segment now in double-digit growthProprietary data heavily used by customers for regulatory compliancePolymarket and sentiment data flagged as new demand driver

Alex Blosstein · Goldman Sachs

Mortgage business showing improvement momentum. Asked about sequential recurring revenue drivers, timeline for charging on volume/over-advance if volumes pick up, and progress on monetization.

Ben noted mortgage revenue tailwinds from: (1) completing renewal cohorts from 2020-21 while extracting higher per-transaction fees, (2) new client go-lives (JP Morgan ramping, M&T, Howard Hanna), and (3) positive Basel rule changes removing MSR capital disincentives. Highlighted strong sales: 90 Encompass deals in 2024, 30 in Q4, including largest correspondent lender and HELOC lender, plus Huntington Bank in April. MSP at record clients with 6 new deals last year and 1 in Q1.

Legacy Encompass business transaction revenues up ~30% last quarter90 Encompass deals closed in 2024, 30 in Q4 aloneMSP at record number of clients; 6 new MSP deals in 2024, 1 in Q1UWM (United Wholesale Mortgage) now live on platform

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q1 2026 exchange recurring revenue prints above the mid-single-digit FY guide. Resolved positively. Q1 Exchanges total revenue grew 30% YoY against a guide framing recurring at mid-single digits — well above any reasonable read of the FY guide. Management's Q4 hint that exchange data could outperform the blended recurring guide has now been validated in print. Status: Resolved positively

NYSE tokenization SEC approval timeline and any pilot transaction disclosure. No approval timeline disclosed, but materially advanced: Polymarket's engineering team is now collaborating with ICE on on-chain settlement and 24/7 capital movement, indicating active development against the regulatory pathway filed in Q4. Approval framework still pending. Status: Continue monitoring

ICE Aurora H1 2026 agent launches — any KPI on adoption or workflow conversion. Partially resolved. Management disclosed launch of AI-powered voice and chat agents for mortgage servicing handling routine borrower inquiries, plus 16 exception-based automation agents for complex servicing workflows. The 16-agent count is the first quantitative adoption datapoint, but customer counts and workflow conversion metrics were not disclosed. Status: Continue monitoring

Mortgage transaction revenue against the normalized 7-10M loan framework. Resolved positively but partially. Legacy Encompass transaction revenue +30% last quarter per Q&A, with Mortgage Tech segment up 6%. The transaction-vs-recurring spread shows volume monetization beginning, though the absolute origination market remains below the 7-10M normalized framework. Status: Continue monitoring

2026 capital return cadence vs. the $2.4B FY2025 baseline. Not resolved. Outstanding debt at $20.4B was disclosed, but Q1 buyback magnitude was not separately quantified in the extracted materials, and the FY 2026 share count guide was withdrawn — replaced only with a Q2 range of 565–571M (lower than the withdrawn 568–574M FY guide, suggesting active repurchase). Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether FY 2026 CapEx, tax, and share count guides return — or whether the withdrawal becomes a regime change. Three FY guides disappeared this quarter without replacement. If they remain absent at Q2, this signals a deliberate move away from annualized commitments on the variable line items, likely because Polymarket/tokenization/AI infrastructure spending is not yet shape-known. Watch the Q2 release for whether FY CapEx returns or whether only Q3 quarterly substitutes are offered.

Whether FID&S +10% sustains or reverts as data center comps tighten. Warren explicitly flagged H2 2026 will face tougher data center comps with Hall 5 fully deployed and Halls 6/7 not arriving until next year. A Q2 print holding at or near 10% would confirm the acceleration is broader than data center capacity ramp; a step-down to 6-7% would validate the comp concern.

NYSE tokenization regulatory milestone or first pilot listing. Engineering collaboration with Polymarket is now disclosed; the next gate is an SEC framework or a named pilot. Q3 2026 was previously flagged as the credibility test for this initiative — Q2 needs at minimum a status update.

Mortgage Tech transaction-vs-recurring spread. With legacy Encompass transaction revenue +30% last quarter, the leading indicator is whether Q2 shows transaction revenue continuing to outpace recurring as new go-lives (UWM, Huntington, largest correspondent/HELOC lenders) annualize. A widening spread confirms the volume-monetization thesis.

Adjusted OpEx tracking vs. the raised $4.145–$4.195B FY guide. Q2 adjusted OpEx guide of $1.030–$1.040B annualizes near $4.16B — squarely at the FY midpoint. Watch whether Q2 prints at the high or low end, as a Q2 print at $1.040B+ would put pressure on the FY range and reopen the question of whether another raise comes in H2.

Sources

ICE Q1 2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000110465926052145/tm2612824d1_ex99-1.htm

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