ICE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Intercontinental Exchange

Reported February 5, 2026

30-second summary

Intercontinental Exchange closed 2025 with Q4 revenue of $2.50B (+7.8% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.71, capping a full year at $9.93B (+7% YoY) and $6.95 adjusted EPS. Exchanges recurring revenue grew 6% for FY (11% in Q4), modestly above the narrowed high-end of the 4-5% guide. The 2026 setup is more nuanced than the headline reset suggests: Exchanges recurring guided to mid-single digits (a deceleration management attributes to H2 2025 comp difficulty rather than demand softening), Fixed Income & Data Services guided to the high end of mid-single digits, Black Knight synergies lifted to $275M by 2028 (a $75M raise, ~40% above the original 2022 commitment), and January 2026 already printing record energy ADV +27% YoY. The real signal is execution confidence: NYSE tokenization filed under existing SEC law, ICE Aurora AI agents going live in H1 2026, and a 2026 OpEx guide of just 4-5% adjusted growth despite ongoing investment.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.71

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.50B

+7.8% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

49.0%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.50B	+7.8%	$2.41B	+3.9%
EPS	$1.71	—	$1.71	+0.0%
Operating margin	49.0%	—	49.0%	+0bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Operating Expenses (GAAP)	Q4 FY2025	$1.255 - $1.265 billion	—	—	Met
Fixed Income & Data Services Recurring Revenue Growth	Q4 FY2025	5% to 6%	—	in-line	Met
Exchange Recurring Revenue Growth	FY2025	towards the high end of 4% to 5% guidance range	10%	+5-6 points above high-end guide	Beat
Fixed Income & Data Services Recurring Revenue Growth	FY2025	5% to 6%	5%	at low-end of guide	Met
Mortgage Technology Revenue Growth	FY2025	—	4.7%	—	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Exchange Recurring Revenue Growth	FY2026	Mid-single digits	—
Fixed Income & Data Services Recurring Revenue Growth	FY2026	Mid-single digits	—
Mortgage Technology Revenue Growth	FY2026	Low-to-mid single digits	—
Operating Expenses (GAAP)	FY2026	$5.010 - $5.075 billion	—
Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP)	FY2026	$4.075 - $4.140 billion	—
Capital Expenditures	FY2026	$740 - $790 million	—
Effective Tax Rate	FY2026	24% - 26%	—
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding	FY2026	568 - 574 million	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Exchanges	$1.364B	+10.0%
Fixed Income and Data Services	$0.608B	+5.0%
Mortgage Technology	$0.532B	+4.7%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Capital Returned to Shareholders (FY2025)	$2.4B

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Exchange Recurring Revenue	$391M
Exchange Transaction Revenue	$973M
Fixed Income Recurring Revenue	$507M
Fixed Income Transaction Revenue	$101M
Mortgage Technology Recurring Revenue	$391M
Adjusted Operating Margin	60%
Operating Cash Flow (FY2025)	$4.7B

Management tone

Q2 anchor: All-weather compounder → Q3 anchor: AI platform and on-chain banking pivot → Q4 anchor: Operationalized execution across AI, tokenization, and synergies

AI moved from branded platform to enumerated H1 2026 deployments. Q3 introduced ICE Aurora as a horizontal AI platform but explicitly refused to quantify cost benefits or timelines. Q4 enumerates four specific agentic AI products going live in mortgage technology in H1 2026 — Encompass data capture, document automation, underwriting assistance, MSP call prediction/chatbots/compliance — plus new consumer chatbots for HELOC/refi auto-population and an intelligent virtual agent. From the call: "We are in the process of rolling out the following ICE Aurora AI-enabled agents for our IMT business in the first half of this year." The shift from "we have a platform" to "here are the four agents launching in six months" is the operationalization the Q3 watch list flagged as missing.

Tokenization decoupled from legislative dependency. Q3 framed Polymarket as the seed of an on-chain banking thesis but kept the regulatory pathway abstract. Q4 made the determination concrete: "This NYSE tokenization initiative is not dependent on the passage of the U.S. Clarity Act or any other foreign legislation," with an SEC filing under existing federal law. This is a step change from speculative exploration to a defined regulatory pathway, and it signals management is willing to move ahead of legislative clarity rather than waiting for it.

Black Knight integration repositioned from milestone to ongoing upside. Three quarters ago synergies were a target to hit; this quarter management explicitly framed the original $200M target as a conservative floor: "We're nearly 40% above our initial commitment when we announced the transaction back in 2022," with the new $275M target itself implicitly under-promising. Revenue synergies nearly doubling in one year ($55M to $100M) reframes mortgage technology from a defensive segment working through legacy minimums to an offensive cross-sell engine.

Mortgage Tech tone reversed from Q3 defense to Q4 offense. Q3 was Flagstar roll-off, PennyMac drag quantification, and "lower mid-single-digit long-term" framing. Q4 reframed the same business as an inflection: 4 million loans in-the-money to refi at current rates (expanding to 5.5-8M with modest rate declines), purchase affordability at 4-year highs, 90 Encompass deals closed in 2025 with 32 new customers, and management telling analysts that legacy contract minimums "substantially worked through" by end of 2026. The 2026 guide of low-to-mid single digits is the same trajectory dressed differently — but the narrative posture is materially more constructive.

Energy reframed yet again — geopolitical complexity as durable tailwind. Q3 added an AI data-center demand vector to the energy thesis. Q4 layered Iran-Russia-Venezuela geopolitics as structural rather than episodic: "In an environment shaped by Iran-related tensions, uncertainty around Venezuelan production, ongoing Russian sanctions, and broader geopolitical flashpoints, this global network has proven essential." The January 2026 print (energy ADV +27% YoY, TTF +100%) gives this framing immediate empirical support and reduces visibility risk on the full-year guide.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI-driven workflow automation as near-term deployment lever across FIDS and mortgage technologySynergy overdelivery and expanded targets signaling integration excellenceEnergy complex sustained momentum driven by geopolitical complexity and energy transitionTokenization as regulated market infrastructure evolution, not speculative noveltyRecord derivatives volumes and recurring revenue growth providing durability and visibilityData and connectivity as mission-critical infrastructure in AI-intensive workflows

Risks management surfaced:

Client attrition related to M&A activity in 2025 (mortgage technology)Currency headwinds (depreciation in euro and pound adding $15-$20M expense impact)Mortgage origination volume volatility (guidance assumes low teens growth at high end, flat to modest at low end)Potential for lower retail, corporate, and treasury bond activity (as evidenced in Q4)Competitive risk in tokenization space if regulatory approval delayed or denied

Q&A highlights

Craig Segan-Baylor · Bank of America

Update on mortgage industry health, refi activity trends beyond 2026, and technology modernization opportunities including blockchain at MERS and AI tools at Encompass/MSPAY

Management highlighted improving mortgage market fundamentals with 4 million loans currently in-the-money to refi (expanding to 5.5-8 million with further rate declines), purchase market affordability at 4-year highs, and accelerating AI/agentic AI deployments across Encompass (data capture, document automation, underwriting) and MSP servicing (call prediction, chatbots, compliance automation, intelligent virtual agents)

4 million loans in-the-money to refi at current rates5.5 million loans would be in-the-money with 25bp rate decline; 7.5-8 million with 50bp declinePurchase market affordability at ~4-year highs90 Encompass deals closed in prior year with 32 new customer wins

Patrick Moley · Piper Sandler

Outlook for futures business, drivers of record open interest in energy and financials in Q4 and January, sustainability assessment, and impact of market volatility on customer activity

Management attributed energy futures strength to geopolitical flashpoints (Iran escalation, India-Russia crude deal, Venezuela flow potential), supply chain evolution, energy transition, and trade/tariff issues. Provided specific contract performance metrics showing robust demand and outlined structural opportunities from crude substitution flows to Brent-priced grades and U.S. Gulf Coast processing.

Energy business up 30% year-to-dateBrent business up 25% year-over-year; up 35% open interest to start 2025Crude business overall up 15% year-over-yearDubai contract up 20% to start year

Benjamin Babish · Barclays

Addressing AI disruption risk to FIDS data and analytics business, competitive moats, and defensibility between proprietary data versus replicable software

Management positioned FIDS defensibility on three pillars: (1) proprietary mission-critical content from exchange/clearing operations licensed to clients, (2) data center/colocation opportunities enabling real-time feedback loops, (3) correlated datasets (e.g., Reddit deal) that create non-replicable value. Emphasized fixed income (PRD) as example of historical depth and trusted-source advantage that competitors cannot replicate, and highlighted pipeline focused on breadth/depth in client decision-making context rather than commoditized exhaust data.

Three-pillar FIDS moat: proprietary exchange content, data center/proximity access, correlated alternative datasetsPRD (price reference data) valued on 1, 3, 10, 30+ year historyEnergy business thousands of contracts create ecosystem defensibilityClients increasingly seeking real-time decision-support integration, not one-dimensional data exhaust

Ashish Sabhadra · RBC Capital

Timing of mortgage recurring revenue headwind relief from lower minimums and expectations for incremental transaction revenues at normalized market levels

Management indicated minimum headwinds have improved sequentially and expect further improvement in 2026, with 2020 and 2021 vintage contract cycles (boom years) substantially worked through by end of 2026. On transaction revenue, defined normalized market as 7-10 million loans annually (10M is 30-year average, 7-8M is median), with prior guidance suggesting couple hundred million to ~$500M incremental revenue in normalized environment. New customer additions and pipeline support ongoing transaction growth.

2020 and 2021 vintage mortgage contracts worked through by end of 2026Normalized market = 7-10 million loans annually (10M is historical average, 7-8M is median)Prior guidance: $200M-$500M incremental transaction revenue at normalized volumesNew customer additions and solid pipeline expected to drive transaction growth

Dan Salmon · Jefferies

Explanation for mid-single-digit exchange recurring revenue growth guidance versus 11% growth achieved in 2025; underlying drivers and durability

Management attributed deceleration to difficult year-over-year comparisons (double-digit growth in H2 2024), offset by new customer wins on futures and equity platforms and disciplined pricing on value-created products. Flagged SIP data pool benefit from prior year as potential headwind (unpredictable), but expect continued new customer additions with minimal attrition and selective pricing capture. Exchange data business could outperform overall recurring revenue guidance.

2025 exchange recurring revenue growth was 11% (low double-digit)2026 exchange recurring revenue guidance is mid-single-digitsDifficult year-over-year comparisons in H2 2024 cited as driverNew customer wins across futures and equity platforms ongoing

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Exchanges FY recurring revenue lands at the high end of 4-5%. Modest beat — FY Exchanges recurring revenue grew 6%, roughly a point above the high-end framing, with Q4-only recurring at 11% providing strong exit-rate momentum. Status: Resolved positively

Aurora cost-benefit disclosure in Q4 or at 2026 guidance. Partially answered. Four specific Aurora agents enumerated for H1 2026 launch in mortgage technology, with named workflows (Encompass data capture, document automation, underwriting, MSP call prediction/chatbots/compliance). Adjusted OpEx guide of 4-5% growth for 2026 implies productivity offsets are real, but management still did not break out an Aurora-specific margin contribution or capacity-vs-cost split. The deployment specificity earns a partial pass. Status: Continue monitoring

Polymarket pathway from equity stake to product. Major step forward — NYSE tokenization filed for SEC approval under existing federal law, explicitly decoupled from Clarity Act dependency. The product pathway is now defined; execution risk remains around the regulatory approval timeline. Status: Resolved positively

Mortgage Tech recurring revenue in Q4 vs. the "flat to Q3" guide. Held the line — $391M Q4 recurring matches Q3 exactly, absorbing the Flagstar roll-off without degradation. Management framed legacy minimum headwinds as substantially worked through by end of 2026, supported by 32 net-new Encompass customers in 2025. Status: Resolved positively

2026 leverage and buyback posture. Partially answered. FY2025 capital return of $2.4B included $1.3B in buybacks and over $1.1B in dividends, with leverage reduced from 3.3x to 3.0x. Management did not explicitly hint at deleveraging prioritization vs. buyback sustenance in 2026. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 2026 exchange recurring revenue prints above the mid-single-digit FY guide. Management told Salmon that exchange data could outperform the overall recurring guide. A Q1 print of 6%+ would confirm management is sandbagging; a print at 4-5% would validate the comp-difficulty framing as the real ceiling.

NYSE tokenization SEC approval timeline and any pilot transaction disclosure. Now that the regulatory pathway is filed under existing law, watch for an approval framework or a named pilot listing. Without progress by Q3 2026, the conviction language gets tested.

ICE Aurora H1 2026 agent launches — any KPI on adoption or workflow conversion. Management enumerated four agents; the next test is whether Q2 2026 discloses adoption metrics (Encompass customers on document automation, MSP servicers using call prediction) or whether the deployments remain qualitative.

Mortgage transaction revenue against the normalized 7-10M loan framework. January refi pool of 4M in-the-money loans is the leading indicator; a 25bp rate decline would expand the pool to 5.5M and should drive Q2/Q3 transaction revenue acceleration. Watch the spread between recurring and transaction lines for evidence the market is normalizing.

2026 capital return cadence vs. the $2.4B FY2025 baseline. With FY2026 Q1 weighted-avg share count guided to 568-574M, the implied net repurchase pace is modest. Watch Q1 buyback magnitude for evidence the H2 2025 step-up persists or whether Polymarket-related CP issuance is being prioritized for paydown.

Sources

ICE Q4 2025 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000110465926010646/tm264989d1_ex99-1.htm
ICE Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (extracted)

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