tapebrief
LLY · Q2 2025
LLY · Q4 2025

LLY · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Eli Lilly

Reported October 30, 2025

30-second summary

30-second take: Lilly delivered $17.6B in Q3 revenue (+54% YoY), with Mounjaro at $6.52B (+109%) and Zepbound at $3.59B (+185%) — both accelerating off already-large bases. Management raised FY2025 revenue guidance by $2.25B at the midpoint to $63.0–63.5B and lifted non-GAAP performance margin guidance by 175bps at the midpoint to 45.0–46.0%, signaling that incretin scale economics are arriving faster than the prior FY framework assumed. Orforglipron regulatory submission is now imminent ("this quarter") with launch targeted for next year.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$7.02

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$17.60B

+54.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

82.9%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

41.8%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025
MetricQ3 FY2025YoYQ2 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$17.60B+54.0%$15.56B+13.1%
EPS$7.02—$6.31+11.3%
Gross margin82.9%—84.3%-140bps
Operating margin41.8%—44.1%-230bps

Guidance

Eli Lilly substantially raised full-year FY2025 revenue and EPS guidance across both GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, with performance margins expanded by 100-200 bps, driven by exceptional Q3 results and continued obesity franchise momentum; discretionary tax and other-income guidance items removed.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Revenue
FY2025
$60.0B to $62.0B$63.0B to $63.5B+$1.0B to $1.5B midpoint increaseRaised
GAAP EPS
FY2025
$20.85 to $22.10$21.80 to $22.50+$0.95 to $0.40 midpoint increaseRaised
Non-GAAP EPS
FY2025
$21.75 to $23.00$23.00 to $23.70+$1.25 to $0.70 midpoint increaseRaised
Performance Margin (reported)
FY2025
42.0% to 43.5%43.5% to 44.5%+150 to +100 bps midpoint increaseRaised
Performance Margin (non-GAAP)
FY2025
43.0% to 44.5%45.0% to 46.0%+200 to +150 bps midpoint increaseRaised
Other Income/(Expense) (reported)
FY2025
($750) to ($650) millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Other Income/(Expense) (non-GAAP)
FY2025
($700) to ($600) millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Tax Rate (reported)
FY2025
Approximately 19%Withdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Tax Rate (non-GAAP)
FY2025
Approximately 17%Withdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn

Segment KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
Mounjaro$6.52B+109.0%
Zepbound$3.59B+185.0%
Verzenio$1.47B+7.0%

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
U.S. Revenue$11.3B+45.0%
International Revenue$6.3B+74.0%
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) %83.6%—
R&D Expense as % of Revenue19.7%—
Operating Margin (Reported) %41.8%—
Mounjaro U.S. Volume Growth+49%—
Mounjaro International Volume GrowthStrong volume-driven growth—
Zepbound U.S. Volume Growth+184% revenue driven by increased demand—
Volume Growth (Overall)+62%—
Realized Price Impact-10% worldwide; U.S. -15%, International favorable FX +6%—

Management tone

The Q3 prepared remarks read more confidently than Q2 across all three speakers. Lucas explicitly called out non-GAAP performance margin of 48.3% in Q3 — an 8-percentage-point expansion versus Q3 2024 — and framed the FY guide raise as a direct read-through from first-nine-months operating leverage. That's a sharper, more numbers-forward defense of the margin story than the Q2 framing, which leaned on revenue mix qualifiers.

Dan's R&D commentary treats orforglipron as effectively de-risked: he described it as having "the potential to be a foundational treatment for type 2 diabetes" and walked through a clinical package now spanning 8,000+ patients across six completed Phase 3 trials, with "consistent safety and tolerability." The "foundational" framing is a step up from Q2's more cautious clinical-profile commentary.

On competitive dynamics, management's posture is hardening into something closer to confidence than defense. Skowronski's claim that Lilly has a "best molecule or first molecule or both" against "nearly every logical target" in obesity, paired with Ricks' framing of "execution and scale" as the moat, reads as a deliberate signal that the company sees the Q4 orforglipron submission as a market-position event rather than a competitive race.

On pricing, Ricks explicitly welcomed the Cigna shift away from rebates toward GPO fees, framing transparent pricing as favorable to clinical-value leaders. This is more forward-leaning than the Q2 stance of "price to value" — management is now positioning Lilly as a structural winner from PBM model evolution, not merely a resilient survivor.

Q&A highlights

Terrance Flynn · Morgan Stanley

Asked about Orfaglipron's eligibility for the FDA Commissioner's National Priority Review Voucher program and implications for timeline and 2026 consensus expectations.

Dave Ricks indicated Lilly is pursuing an 'all-of-the-above strategy' to get Orfaglipron to patients quickly, noting the program checks multiple boxes for the voucher but avoiding specific commitments. Stated the package will be submitted this quarter with hopes for approval as soon as possible.

Submission of regulatory package expected this quarterTarget launch anticipated next yearPursuing multiple pathways for expedited review

Chris Schott · JP Morgan

Requested detailed color on Monjaro international launch trends, growth sustainability from higher base, and assessment of stocking effects in new markets.

Patrick Johnson reported 75% out-of-pocket and 25% type 2 diabetes mix, initial stocking in Q2 launches (China, Brazil, Mexico, India) with continued lift in Q3. Highlighted reimbursement opportunities in 8 markets and patient activation as key growth drivers, with international representing 55+ countries with different dynamics.

Launched in 55 countries across all major markets75% of non-U.S. Monjaro revenue from obesity patients paying out-of-pocketReimbursement exists in 8 markets currentlyQ3 showed continued strong performance after initial Q2 stocking

Seamus Fernandez · Guggenheim

Asked about competitive dynamics, M&A behavior in obesity space, and whether management views competitive actions as concerning or maintains focus primarily on internal execution.

Dan Skowronski stated Lilly has best or first molecules against nearly every logical target in obesity, with robust pipeline behind late-stage assets. Dave Ricks emphasized execution and scale as differentiators, noting competitors want Lilly's position but the company is focused on defending it through innovation and market execution.

Lilly has first-mover or best-in-class position on nearly every targetRobust pipeline supporting marketed and clinical programsEmphasis on execution and manufacturing scale as competitive advantagesNo observed changes to competitive assessment that would alter strategy

James Shin · Deutsche Bank

Questioned whether recent Cigna announcement replacing drug rebates with GPO fees suggests greater net-to-list pricing pressure and whether clinical profiles will become more relevant to formulary positioning.

Dave Ricks applauded the Cigna move toward transparency and clinical differentiation, viewing it favorably for innovators. Stated it's better for competition to be based on clinical value rather than rebate structures, and expressed confidence that valuable medicines will be recognized in pricing.

Supports transparent pricing models over rebate-based structuresBelieves clinical differentiation benefits leading innovatorsViews Cigna move as positive for market evolution toward transparency

Asad Haider · Goldman Sachs

Asked about Orfaglipron pricing and volume dynamics at launch, including learnings from Zepbound vial growth (40% of new scripts) and U.K. Monjaro price elasticity, and how this informs U.S. vs. OUS volume unlocks under potential MFN pricing.

Ilya Yufa highlighted Lilly Direct's success in direct-to-consumer channel with Zepbound, new vial format availability at Walmart, and multi-medicine offering strategy. Patrick Johnson discussed U.K. price elasticity learnings, export controls, and Orfaglipron addressing different BMI segments (below 35) as complementary to Monjaro in OUS markets.

Zepbound vials now available at local Walmart locationsSequential growth of 15% in covered obesity marketU.K. price increase to European levels effective September 1st controlled exportsOrfaglipron targets BMI below 35 segment as OUS opportunity

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Orforglipron NDA submission — Confirmed: management stated submission "this quarter" with target launch next year. The press release also references "plans to submit to global regulatory authorities by the end of the year for the treatment of obesity." Indication scope and specific filing date still not pinpointed, but the catalyst is materializing on schedule.
Resolved positively
Zepbound TRX trajectory — Q3 Zepbound revenue $3.59B, +185% YoY, with management citing +184% volume-driven growth. Vial format now in Walmart locations, with 15% sequential growth in the covered obesity market. The CVS formulary exclusion headwind flagged in Q2 did not break the trajectory.
Resolved positively
Performance margin trajectory — The H2 compression concern was wrong. FY non-GAAP performance margin guidance was raised 175bps at the midpoint to 45.0–46.0%; reported guidance raised 125bps to 43.5–44.5%. Q3 non-GAAP performance margin of 48.3% printed well above the new FY range.
Resolved positively
Pricing erosion on chronic GLP-1s — Realized price fell 10% worldwide (U.S. -15%, international +6% on FX). Adjusted for the Q3 2024 base-period rebate true-up, U.S. price declined high-single-digits, consistent with Ricks' Q2 framing. Volume of +62% is more than absorbing it, and management welcomed the Cigna PBM-model shift as structurally favorable.
Continue monitoring
Manufacturing capacity — Materially advanced: new $5B Virginia facility (bioconjugates/mAb), new $6.5B Texas API facility, and $1.2B+ Puerto Rico expansion (small molecule, including orforglipron) all announced this quarter. Dave noted two additional U.S. manufacturing facility announcements still to come.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Orforglipron submission confirmation and indication scope — management has committed to submission this quarter; watch for the announcement and whether the package covers chronic weight management, type-2 diabetes, or both, and whether Lilly secured the National Priority Review Voucher despite Ricks' evasiveness.

International revenue trajectory — international growth of +74% has now eclipsed U.S. growth of +45%; watch whether reimbursement progress beyond the current 8 markets sustains this, and what the 75% out-of-pocket mix implies for net pricing as more markets convert to reimbursed access.

TRIUMPH-4 retatrutide readout — first Phase 3 readout for the triple agonist (knee osteoarthritis pain in obesity) expected later this year; watch whether the data supports management's positioning of retatrutide for the higher-BMI / comorbidity-heavy segment as distinct from orforglipron's broader reach.

ATTAIN-Maintain readout — the orforglipron weight-loss-maintenance trial in patients switching off injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide reads out late 2025 / early 2026; this is the data point that determines whether orforglipron can credibly anchor a maintenance positioning.

FY2026 initial framework — with the obesity submission landing this quarter and an orforglipron launch targeted for next year, the Q4 call will be the first time management frames 2026; watch for explicit launch-year revenue contribution assumptions and any commentary on Canadian generic semaglutide impact on self-pay pricing.

Sources

  1. Eli Lilly Q3 2025 earnings press release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947825000251/q325lillysalesandearningsp.htm
  2. Eli Lilly Q3 2025 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A

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