tapebrief
LNT · Q2 2025

LNT · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Alliant Energy

Reported November 7, 2025

30-second summary

Alliant did exactly what it telegraphed last quarter and then some: lifted the four-year capex plan 17% to $13.4B, set 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance at $3.36–$3.46 (6.6% growth off the narrowed 2025 midpoint of $3.20, above the typical 6%), and put an explicit 7%+ CAGR on 2027–2029 — all anchored to 3 GW of contracted data center demand and a projected 50% peak load increase by 2030. Management also narrowed 2025 to $3.17–$3.23 and said the year is trending to the upper half of that range. This is the multi-year re-rating thesis going from telegraphed to printed.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.12

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$1.21B

+11.9% YoY

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

28.8%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025
MetricQ3 FY2025YoYQ2 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$1.21B+11.9%$0.96B+25.9%
EPS$1.12—$0.68+64.7%
Operating margin28.8%—23.2%+560bps

Guidance

Alliant Energy raised 2026 EPS guidance to $3.36–$3.46 (6.6% YoY growth) and increased 4-year capex by 17% to $13.4B to capitalize on surging data center demand (3 GW contracted).

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
EPS (non-GAAP)FY2026$3.36 - $3.466.6% growth over 2025
common stock dividend targetFY2026$2.14 per share5.4% increase over 2025
Capital expenditure forecast (4-year)FY2025-FY2028$13.4 billion—
Long-term EPS growth target (CAGR 2027-2029)FY2027-FY20297% plus—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (non-GAAP) ($3.36 - $3.46)

Segment KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025YoY
Electric utility$1.124B+12.5%
Gas utility$0.051B+4.1%
Other utility$0.012B—
Non-utility$0.023B+9.5%

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Contracted data center demand3 GW
Expected peak load growth by 203050%
Electric utility sales (retail)6,974 thousand MWh
Utility retail electric customers1,006,524
Utility retail gas customers430,464
Operating income margin28.8%
4-year capital expenditure forecast$13.4 billion
2026 earnings guidance (midpoint)$3.41 per share

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 Construction begins on signed sites → Q3 Pipeline tripled, plan rewritten, growth rate raised.

The biggest shift in one quarter is that data centers have moved from "the next leg" to the operating model. In Q2, management talked about Cedar Rapids in the plan and QTS Madison in mature opportunities, with a Q3 capex update teed up. This quarter management opened by declaring data centers a core strategic advantage rather than a supplementary opportunity: "We are well positioned because of the Alliant Energy advantage in the realization of additional near-term load growth opportunities from data centers." The rebrand — they now use the phrase "Alliant Energy Advantage" — signals management views the data center thesis as durable enough to anchor identity, not just guidance.

Second, the multi-year growth trajectory was explicitly stepped up — not a hedged "high end of 5–7%" but a printed 7%+ for 2027–2029 alongside a 6.6% 2026 growth rate "higher than our typical 6%." This is the part Q2's tone foreshadowed; Q3 made it numeric. Management's language ("we expect our compound annual growth rate across 2027 to 2029 to be 7% plus") removed the symmetric 5–7% range and replaced it with a floor. For a regulated utility, replacing a range with a floor is a meaningful confidence signal.

Third, the financing posture became more candid. Q2 disclosed 40–50% equity funding of incremental capex; Q3 named the dollar number — a $2.4B equity raise to be settled ratably over the plan — and management acknowledged moderating the pace of dividend growth to the lower end of the historical payout range to free cash for capex. That is a deliberate trade — accept slower dividend growth, fund a higher-return capex book — and management said so plainly rather than dressing it up.

Fourth, the hedging that did appear was narrowly placed on regulatory timing and equity settlement cadence, not on demand. The 2025 guide was narrowed to $3.17–$3.23 and framed as trending to the upper half rather than formally raised at the top end, which preserves some optionality into Q4 reporting. Compared with Q2's measured tone on PSCW dockets, Q3's hedging is structurally similar but moved one rung up the conviction ladder.

Fifth, the pipeline credibility frame from Q2 — only "mature" (~85% probability) opportunities make the plan — is now backed by 3 GW contracted in plan plus 2–4 GW in active negotiation. That separation is the architecture investors should hold management to: signed in the plan, prospective outside it.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Data center-driven load growth accelerationCapital intensity increase and financing managementRegulatory support enabling growth trajectoryWin-win outcomes balancing existing and new customer valuePlug-in ready infrastructure minimizing transmission constraintsDiversified generation investment (renewables, natural gas, storage)

Risks management surfaced:

Weather normalization impacts (referenced temperature-driven earnings volatility)Execution risk on planned data center projects under constructionRegulatory approval risk on pending certificates and rate filingsFinancing execution risk on $2.4 billion equity raise and debt issuancesOperational risk from increased generation maintenance and new resource integration

Q&A highlights

Nicholas Campanella · Barclays

What stages are the 2-4 gigawatts of incremental load opportunities at, and what is the line of sight to signed load contracts in 2026? What will debt levels be at end of 2025 and through 2026, and will the $300 million in tax credits continue through 2030?

The company has grown from 1 gigawatt announced last year to 3 gigawatts currently, with active negotiations on 2-4 gigawatts of additional load. These are transmission-efficient, near-term opportunities with completed interconnection studies. Growth would exceed 7-8%. FFO to debt targeting 50-100 bps cushion throughout planning period. Tax credits total ~$1.5-1.6 billion over next 4 years with confidence in monetization. Data center construction load converts to production load starting Q4 2026, ramping to full 3 gigawatts by 2030.

3 gigawatts of identified load currently (up from 1 gigawatt announced previously)2-4 gigawatts in active negotiationsGrowth above 7-8% with additional loadFFO to debt targeting 50-100 basis points cushion

Julian DeMolmis · Jefferies

What is the probability of conversion for the remaining 3-3.5 gigawatts in the pipeline beyond the 1.5 gigawatts previously identified as 'blue zone'? How fragmented is the pipeline geographically across Iowa and Wisconsin?

Company expresses high confidence in all 2-4 gigawatts, not just the 1.5 gigawatt 'blue zone'. Competitive advantages include serving 75% of Iowa communities and 40% of Wisconsin communities, access to fiber, land, and transmission infrastructure without need for 100+ mile transmission lines. Data centers gravitating more toward Iowa due to abundant sites from historical land investments. MISO's transmission planning and constructive state regulatory environment support execution.

Serves 75% of Iowa communities, 40% of Wisconsin communitiesData centers increasingly gravitating toward IowaNo requirement for 100+ mile transmission lines for load deliveryMISO provides robust transmission planning and efficient interconnection process

Bill Apicelli · UBS

What does the demand ramp trajectory mean for earnings growth above the 7% guidance? How does the 12% rate-based growth walk down to the 7-8% earnings growth guidance?

7-8% is at least 7-8% before upside from known projects. 12% rate-based growth consists of ~10% rate-based growth plus ~2% QIP growth. The gap to 7-8% earnings growth is primarily driven by equity dilution, conservative interest rate assumptions, and modest regulatory lag. Iowa electric side has new regulatory construct providing certainty to earn authorized return with upside opportunity if outperforming; gas side will require future rate cases.

7-8% earnings growth guidance is floor12% rate-based growth = ~10% rate-based + ~2% QIP growthGap attributable to equity dilution (primary driver), conservative interest rate assumptions, modest regulatory lagIowa electric side: new construct allows earning authorized return with sharing of outperformance benefits

Aditya Gandhi · Wolf Research

Is the 7-8% guidance based on 2026 midpoint? Are the 2-4 gigawatts expansions of existing facilities or new customers? What is the cadence of future updates and timing of Google load ramp acceleration?

7-8% guidance is based on 2026 midpoint. 2-4 gigawatts comprise mix of expansions at existing sites and new data center locations across service territory. Counterparties are high-quality hyperscalers and co-locators. Quarterly updates on pipeline status expected, with material progress potentially shared within 3-6 months. Google agreement covers 300 megawatts of the 3 gigawatts, with load starting in H2 2026 and ramping faster than originally planned.

7-8% guidance based on 2026 midpoint earnings2-4 gigawatts = mix of expansions and new sitesCounterparties are high-quality hyperscalers/co-locators300 megawatts attributed to Google agreement

Julian DeMolmis · Jefferies

Should we expect 8%+ EPS guidance post-2027 into 2028 timeframe given the certainty in the regulatory construct? What is the further upside to upside?

Management expresses confidence in outcomes beyond 2029 but emphasizes timing-dependent execution. Key variables are data center production load online timing and transmission investment timing (ATC, ITC investments). Google's acceleration agreement is cited as indicator of willingness to accelerate. Company commits to transparent quarterly updates rather than speculation, indicating data center coming online sooner could support higher guidance.

Only modeled through 2029 due to standard process; no concerns beyond 2029Upside to upside dependent on earlier data center production load timingATC and ITC transmission investments relatively minimal but timing-dependentGoogle acceleration provides template for potential load ramp acceleration

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 capital expenditure plan update — Delivered. Four-year capex raised 17% to $13.4B (covering 2026–2029), anchored to 3 GW contracted data center demand. QTS Madison referenced as one of four signed Google projects, with three under active construction. Status: Resolved positively
PSCW case resolution — Resolved positively. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved Alliant's unanimous retail electric and gas rate review settlement for forward test periods 2026 and 2027, providing rate clarity through the near-term plan. Status: Resolved positively
Treasury safe harbor guidance — Not directly addressed in available materials. Management referenced $1.5–1.6B in tax credits over four years with confidence in monetization in Q&A, and noted proactive safe harboring of energy storage and wind projects in the plan, implying no material adverse shift, but a definitive Treasury rule outcome was not disclosed. Status: Continue monitoring
2026 EPS guide framework — Resolved decisively. 2026 set at $3.36–$3.46, midpoint $3.41 represents 6.6% growth off the narrowed 2025 midpoint of $3.20 (above typical 6%), and the long-term CAGR was raised to 7%+ for 2027–2029 — above the historical 5–7% range. Status: Resolved positively
Equity issuance signaling — Quantified. $2.4B equity raise disclosed, to be settled ratably over the plan, alongside moderation of dividend growth to the lower end of the payout range. Materially larger than Q2 framing implied, consistent with the 17% capex lift. Status: Resolved negatively (dilution magnitude is now concrete and meaningful to TSR math, even if growth offset is favorable)

What to watch into next quarter

Conversion of 2–4 GW negotiation pipeline to contracted: at least one incremental signed ESA in the next two quarters would push embedded growth above the 7%+ floor.

Iowa Utilities Commission decisions in 2026: timing and constructiveness of pending Iowa orders (advance ratemaking for up to 1 GW of wind, plus CPCN filings for gas generation) will determine whether the $13.4B capex earns at authorized return on schedule.

2025 EPS landing point: management narrowed FY25 to $3.17–$3.23 and framed it as trending to the upper half. Watch whether the Q4 print lands at or above $3.20, which would validate the upper-half framing and the $3.41 midpoint base for 2026.

Equity issuance cadence and price realization: $2.4B ratable issuance ($1.6B remaining after forward agreements covering 2026) is the key dilution variable for per-share growth — track quarterly ATM/block activity and weighted average price.

Google load ramp pace in H2 2026: management cited Google's acceleration as the template for upside; first-production-load timing in Q4 2026 is the earliest in-quarter datapoint that could pull guidance higher.

Sources

  1. Alliant Energy Q3 2025 Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed November 7, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/352541/000035254125000079/lnt110620258-kex991.htm
  2. Alliant Energy Q3 2025 earnings call commentary (as captured in Q&A and prepared remarks excerpts)

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