MAR · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Marriott International

Reported May 6, 2026

30-second summary

Marriott blew through its own Q1 guide on every dimension that matters: worldwide RevPAR +4.2% vs. a +1.0–2.0% guide, adjusted EPS $2.72 vs. $2.50–2.55, and adjusted EBITDA $1,398M vs. $1,305–1,325M. Management responded by raising FY26 worldwide RevPAR to +2.0–3.0% (from +1.5–2.5%), FY26 EPS to $11.38–11.63, and capital return to over $4.4B — even after baking in a 100–125bps Middle East headwind. The flat-RevPAR narrative that defined the Q3 and Q4 calls is, for now, off the table; select service inflected from -1% in Q4 to +3.5% in Q1, and business transient flipped from -2% to +1%.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$2.72

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$1.81B

+12.6% YoY

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

16.0%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.81B	+12.6%	$6.69B	-72.9%
EPS	$2.72	—	$2.58	+5.4%
Operating margin	16.0%	—	11.6%	+440bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$1,365 to $1,380 million	$1,810 million	+$430 to $445 million above guide	Beat
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2026	$2.50 to $2.55	$2.72	+$0.17 above guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 FY2026	$1,305 to $1,325 million	$1,398 million	+$73 to $93 million above guide	Beat
RevPAR growth (comparable systemwide constant $)	Q1 FY2026	1.0% to 2.0%	4.2%	+2.0 to 3.2 points above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$1,538 to $1,553 billion	-15.1% to -14.2% YoY
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	$2.99 to $3.06	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY 2026	$5,895 to $5,955 million	$5,925 to $5,985 million	+$30 million at low end, +$30 million at high end	Raised
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	FY 2026	$11.32 to $11.57	$11.38 to $11.63	+$0.06 at low end, +$0.06 at high end	Raised
RevPAR growth (comparable systemwide constant $)	FY 2026	1.5% to 2.5%	2.0% to 3.0%	+0.5 points at both low and high end	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$5,840 to $5,930 million	$5,880 to $5,970 million	+$40 million at low end, +$40 million at high end	Raised
Capital return to shareholders	FY 2026	Over $4,300 million	Over $4,400 million	+$100 million	Raised

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
Franchise and base management fees	$1.211B	+13.0%
Incentive management fees	$0.222B	+8.8%

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Worldwide RevPAR growth (constant $)	4.2%
US & Canada RevPAR growth	4.0%
International RevPAR growth	4.6%
Net rooms added (quarterly)	15,900 rooms
Marriott Bonvoy membership	283 million members
Development pipeline	618,000 rooms / 4,107 properties

Profitability

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Adjusted EBITDA	$1,398 million
Adjusted EBITDA margin	77.2%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 25 fee durability amid RevPAR deceleration → Q3 25 "2026 looks like 2025" → Q4 25 rooms growth replaces RevPAR as the driver → Q1 26 RevPAR re-accelerates and re-claims headline status.

Three quarters ago the bull case rested on the unit-growth flywheel carrying investors over a soft RevPAR cycle. Last quarter management pivoted hard to net rooms growth and credit-card economics, conceding 2026 RevPAR would look like 2025. This quarter the central frame flipped: "we are raising our full-year global REVPAR guidance and now expect growth of 2% to 3%." The shift signals that the structural "flat-RevPAR is the new normal" narrative was premature — Q1 demand broadened across chain scales in a way management had been describing as a future event for two quarters.

The select-service inflection is the most evidenced shift. Q4 commentary acknowledged select service down >1% YoY with no timeline on recovery; this quarter Tony's framing is "over the course of a quarter to go from relative weakness in the select service tiers to about 3.5% REVPAR growth in the first quarter... a really, really encouraging sign." A 450bps single-quarter swing in the chain scale that drives most of Marriott's room count is not noise — it materially changes the implied 2026 fee algebra if it persists.

Greater China hardened in the opposite direction from Q4. Last quarter management explicitly anticipated "roughly flat" China RevPAR for FY26; this quarter Jen Mason raised it: "we now expect full-year REVPAR growth in the low single-digit range, primarily reflecting strong first-quarter performance." The international growth story no longer needs the "ex-China" caveat that surrounded Q3 and Q4 — it's now China contributing positively, with the broader international print +4.6% riding on top.

Business transient saw the same arc. Q4 described BT down ~2% with no clear inflection; this quarter Tony notes Q1 global BT RevPAR +1% with non-government BT described as "pretty solid." The government overhang from the shutdown remains, but the underlying corporate demand picture is the most constructive it has been in four quarters.

The hedge sits in the Middle East exposure. Management quantified a 100–125bps FY headwind to global RevPAR and a 50% Q2 RevPAR reduction at Middle East properties continuing through year-end. This is a real downward adjustment to one regional growth pocket — but the FY guide raise of 50bps occurs despite this, which is the more important signal. Management is willing to absorb a quantified regional negative and still raise.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Domestic US travel pivot driving select service recoveryGreater China market share gains and strong leisure reboundMiddle East conflict impact quantified and partially contained to near-termTechnology transformation and AI implementation as competitive moatRecord pipeline and conversion momentum offsetting macro uncertaintyBroad-based demand across leisure, group, and business segments

Risks management surfaced:

Middle East conflict creating 100-125 bps headwind to full-year global RevPAR growthQ2 anticipated 50% RevPAR reduction in Middle East properties with ongoing impact through year-endSofter long-haul demand into APEC markets relying on Gulf hub connectivityMexican luxury resort weakness impacting Cala region growthConsumer confidence weakness potentially offsetting positive travel sentiment

Q&A highlights

David Katz · Jefferies

What specific AI implementations can investors expect to see from Marriott, and what are the gating factors and success metrics for AI initiatives between now and year-end?

Management outlined a three-pronged enterprise-wide generative AI strategy focused on elevating experiences for associates, guests, and owners. Specific implementations already in place include business transient sales tools, real-time call assistance in customer engagement centers, event planning intelligence tools, marketing campaign assistance, and conversational search rollout on Marriott.com. Success will be measured through conversion rates, direct hotel revenue impact, above-property operational improvements, and partnerships with Google and OpenAI.

Conversational search rollout across Marriott.com platform in current quarterBusiness transient sales tools for sales teams already implementedReal-time call assistance in customer engagement centersPartnerships with Google AI travel product and OpenAI ad pilot program

Brent Montour · Barclays

How does management view AI's evolution in the distribution landscape and potential impact on Marriott's distribution costs and customer acquisition?

Management acknowledged uncertainty in how online booking will transform but highlighted Marriott's competitive advantages: industry-leading scale, physical/geographic footprint, higher volume of stays and reviews, and better real-time insights. Management believes AI can strengthen direct booking channels and Bonvoy ecosystem adoption. Two monetization models are emerging (advertising and transactions), with early experimentation favoring ads. Management expects favorable cost benefits for owners and franchisees from pilot programs, though specific details were withheld.

Marriott's scale creates natural digital content and search advantageAI monetization experimentation between advertising and transaction modelsPotential for favorable cost benefits for owners and franchisees from AI pilotsOpportunity to drive customers to proprietary booking channels

Conor Cunningham · Milius Research

What specific travel types drove the improvement relative to prior guidance, particularly given strength in select service and steady luxury trends?

Management indicated business transient was the primary driver of outperformance. U.S. and Canada guidance was raised due to strength across all chain scales and segments in Q1 continuing into April. Management expects higher strength in H1 versus H2, driven by World Cup events in Q2/Q3 and negative Q4 impact from midterm elections. China raised to low single digits from strong Q1 leisure performance. Middle East impact expected at 100-125 basis points negative.

Business transient travel showing strongest improvementU.S. and Canada guidance raised, now on higher end of global guidanceWorld Cup boost expected in Q2 and Q3Middle East impact estimated at 100-125 basis points negative

Duane Fenigworth · Evercore ISI

How quickly do markets historically recover from conflicts, and which markets are most dependent on Middle East airlift?

Management acknowledged each conflict is unique and difficult to forecast. Noted that fuel price impacts are most significant unknown. Highlighted India as a market most exposed to Middle East carrier disruption (Marriott is largest hotel company there), with pivot to other carriers already occurring. Middle East accounts for 10% of global transit traffic. APEC team expects most significant impact in Q2, with recovery as other carriers fill capacity gaps.

Each regional conflict has unique impacts, difficult to forecastIndia most exposed due to Marriott's dominant footprint and Middle East carrier dependenceMiddle East represents 10% of global transit trafficAPEC expects most significant impact in Q2 with gradual recovery

Trey Bowers · Wells Fargo

What defines success in credit card deal renegotiations, and when can investors expect financial impacts (2026 vs. 2027)?

Management stated active negotiations with Visa, Chase, and Amex with expectation of new deals by year-end. Some upside expected this year from renegotiation, but real opportunity comes from card refresh and relaunch which will take additional time. Benefits accrue to loyalty program guests, owners, and Marriott's royalty fees. Management emphasized the size and scale of Marriott's existing credit card program as context.

Active negotiations with Visa, Chase, and AmexNew deals expected latter part of current yearSome upside expected this year from renegotiationLarger upside deferred to card refresh/relaunch timeline

Answers to last quarter's watch list

U.S. & Canada RevPAR direction in Q1 2026. Resolved decisively positive: U.S. & Canada RevPAR +4.0% — a 410bps swing from Q4 25's -0.1%. Select service +3.5% (vs. >-1% in Q4), business transient +1% (vs. -2% in Q4). The "select-service weakness moderating" framing didn't just hold — it inflected. Status: Resolved positively

Whether the 35% credit-card fee step-up flows through cleanly to Q1 fee revenue. Q1 franchise and base management fees of $1,211M grew 13% YoY; the press release attributes growth to higher RevPAR, unit growth, and "stronger non-RevPAR-related franchise fees, particularly co-branded credit card and residential branding fees." The step-up appears to be flowing through, but the disclosure stops short of confirming the full 35% lift landed as guided. Status: Resolved positively

Net rooms growth pace vs. the 4.5–5% FY26 guide. Q1 added 15,900 rooms; FY26 guide reaffirmed at +4.5–5%. The Q1 quarterly add is below the run-rate the FY guide implies — a NUG print of 15.9k versus the ~17k+ needed each quarter to deliver +5%. Pipeline grew ~8,300 rooms QoQ. The "approaching 5%" framing remains intact verbally but Q1 didn't strengthen it. Status: Continue monitoring

Any update on the Chase/Amex credit-card renewals. Management confirmed active negotiations with Visa, Chase, and Amex with new deals expected by year-end 2026. Some 2026 upside expected from renegotiation; the larger benefit comes from card refresh/relaunch which pushes into 2027. Timing has firmed from Q4's "sometime next year" to "latter part of this year" — modest improvement in certainty. Status: Continue monitoring

Greater China RevPAR — does the flat 2026 framing hold, or does it slip negative? Resolved decisively positive: China raised from "roughly flat" to "low single-digit growth" for FY26 on strong Q1 leisure performance. The international +4.6% Q1 print is being held up by genuine breadth, not masking-and-praying. Status: Resolved positively

Group pace for 2026. Tony confirmed group pace for the year is up about 5%, and Q1 group RevPAR rose 5% both globally and in U.S. & Canada. Pace is not perfectly indicative of where group RevPAR will land, but the base of business on the books continues to support group as a growth driver. Status: Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether select service RevPAR sustains positive growth, ideally holding +3.5% or better. A reversion to flat or negative in Q2 would turn the Q1 inflection into a one-off, breaking the most important narrative shift of this call and forcing a re-rating of the FY RevPAR raise.

Q2 worldwide RevPAR vs. the +1.5–2.5% guide, with explicit attention to the Middle East 100–125bps drag. A print at the high end despite the headwind would validate management's "broad-based demand" framing; a miss would suggest the Middle East impact was larger than guided or that Q1 strength was front-loaded.

Net rooms growth — Q2 openings need to track ~17k+ to maintain credibility on the +4.5–5% FY guide. Q1's 15.9k add is below the implied run-rate; a second sub-pace quarter would force a guidance trim and undermine the "rooms growth as headline driver" pivot.

Greater China Q2 print and any updated FY trajectory. A return to flat or negative would reverse the FY upgrade and pull the international growth rate down materially.

Concrete economic disclosure on Chase/Amex renewal — timing, structure, or any framework on incremental fee uplift. Management said deals expected "latter part of this year"; a Q2 announcement with quantification would meaningfully change the 2027 EPS path.

AI economics for owners — management cited "favorable cost benefits" without quantification. Any framework for distribution-cost reduction or direct-channel mix shift would move the franchise-economics thesis.

Sources

Marriott International Q1 2026 Earnings Release, filed May 6, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000012/mar-2026q1xex99earningsrel.htm
Marriott International Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call — Q&A excerpts (Tony Capuano, CEO; Jen Mason, CFO), May 6, 2026

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