MAR · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Marriott International

Reported February 10, 2026

30-second summary

Marriott closed Q4 with worldwide RevPAR +1.9% (top end of guide), adjusted EPS $2.58 (midpoint of guide), and adjusted EBITDA $1,402M (above the high end), but the print is not the story. The FY2026 guide formally crystallizes what last quarter only previewed: RevPAR holds at +1.5–2.5% (same as 2025), while management pivots the narrative to net rooms growth of 4.5–5% — the first time NUG has explicitly outranked RevPAR as the headline driver. The offsetting positive is a renegotiated credit-card royalty that drives a ~35% step-up in branding fees and underwrites 13–15% EPS growth on a flat-RevPAR baseline.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.58

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$6.69B

+4.1% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

11.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$6.69B	+4.1%	$1.73B	+286.7%
EPS	$2.58	—	$2.47	+4.5%
Operating margin	11.6%	—	65.0%	-5340bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS – diluted	Q4 FY2025	$2.54 to $2.62	$2.58	in-line with midpoint of guide range	Beat
Gross fee revenues	Q4 FY2025	$1,382 to $1,402 million	~$1,425 million (derived: Q4 revenues $6.69B − management fees)	+$23–43M above high end of prior guide	Beat
Comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR growth	Q4 FY2025	Worldwide 1.0% to 2.0%	1.9%	at high end of prior guidance range	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	$1,371 to $1,401 million	$1,402 million	+$1M above high end of prior guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS – diluted	FY2026	$11.32 to $11.57	+13% to +15%
Gross fee revenues	FY2026	$5,895 to $5,955 million	—
Comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR growth	FY2026	1.5% to 2.5% worldwide	—
Net rooms growth	FY2026	4.5% to 5%	—
Adjusted EBITDA growth	FY2026	8% to 10%	—
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2026	$5,840 to $5,930 million	—
Capital returns to shareholders	FY2026	Over $4,300 million	—
Adjusted effective tax rate	FY2026	26.0% to 26.5%	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Franchise fees	$0.843B	+6.0%
Base management fees	$0.343B	+3.0%
Incentive management fees	$0.239B	+16.0%
Owned, leased, and other revenue, net	$0.041B	-43.1%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Worldwide RevPAR growth	1.9%
Net rooms growth (full year)	4.3%
Development pipeline rooms	609,700 rooms
Marriott Bonvoy members	271 million
Member stays (% of room nights U.S. & Canada)	75%
Member stays (% of room nights globally)	68%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$1,402 million
Adjusted operating income margin	63%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 fee durability amid RevPAR deceleration → Q3 "2026 looks like 2025" preview → Q4 rooms growth formally replaces RevPAR as the headline driver.

Three quarters ago Marriott was still framing RevPAR softness as cyclical noise that the unit-growth flywheel would carry investors over. Last quarter the preliminary 2026 RevPAR view of "similar to 1.5–2.5%" quietly removed the recovery bridge. This quarter management completes the pivot: "With rooms growth as one of the top company priorities... net rooms growth is expected to accelerate up to 4.5% to 5%." The shift signals that the bull case is no longer "RevPAR re-accelerates"; it is now "we grow rooms 5%, expand fee royalties via Bonvoy economics, and return $4.3B." That is a structurally different equity story than the one Marriott was telling in mid-2024.

The credit-card commentary moved from "we expect to land it" (Q2) to "sometime next year" (Q3) to — this quarter — a concrete 35% step-up in 2026 credit-card fees from a renegotiated existing contract, separate from the still-pending Chase/Amex renewals. Per Q&A: "We were able to do this because we recently amended a longstanding contractual limitation affecting the royalty rate." This is materially better news than the Q3 framing implied — the renewal optionality is now incremental on top of an already-stepped-up base rather than the whole catalyst. The 13–15% FY26 EPS growth guide leans heavily on this lever.

The China posture hardened again. Q3 was "challenged by weaker macro conditions, though our market share continued to grow." Q4 adds: "We currently anticipate RevPAR in Greater China to again be roughly flat year over year" — explicit guidance that China is a 2026 zero, not a contributor. International's +6.1% Q4 print is masking this; ex-China the international story is genuinely strong, but the headline international number embeds a flat-China assumption that limits upside.

On government business, the Q3 framing of "stabilized at lower levels" did not survive contact with the 43-day shutdown. Management is now explicit that government RevPAR was down 30%+ during the shutdown and remains down ~15% even post-moderation, signaling structural impairment rather than transient policy noise. This is a quiet downgrade from Q3's resolved-positive read.

The AI commentary stepped up in ambition: "We see AI as an opportunity to potentially redefine the customer acquisition paradigm that has governed our industry for the past several decades." That is a bigger swing than anything management has previously committed to verbally on AI — but "potentially" and the absence of any specific timeline or quantified benefit make it more thesis-setting than near-term catalyst.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Rooms growth acceleration as strategic priority over RevPAR growthLuxury segment resilience and portfolio positioning toward upper-end consumersGreater China macro weakness and consumer sentiment deteriorationAI and technology transformation as future competitive leverLoyalty program (Bonvoy) expansion and monetization via credit card renegotiations

Risks management surfaced:

Weak macroeconomic conditions and soft consumer sentiment in Greater ChinaSelect service tier underperformance and margin pressureGovernment spending structural decline post-shutdown (down ~15% even after moderation)Macroeconomic environment assumptions could shift materiallyTiming and lumpiness of residential branding fees creating volatility

Q&A highlights

Sean Kelly · Bank of America

What are the most important drivers of pipeline momentum for 2026 net room growth acceleration to 4.5%-5%, particularly regarding openings and which brands will be leveraged most?

Management highlighted that ~33% of signings and openings come from conversions, with 75% of conversion openings occurring within 12 months of signing. Key drivers include conversion-friendly brands (Luxury Collection, Autograph, Tribute, etc.), insatiable international luxury demand, and acceleration in mid-scale portfolio. Organizational streamlining and process improvements over 18 months have enabled faster growth execution.

~33% of signings and openings from conversions75% of conversion openings open within 12 months of signing4.5%-5% net room growth guidance for 2026Organizational improvements focused on speed and efficiency over past 18 months

Dan Pulitzer · JP Morgan

Why was the company able to increase credit card royalty rates by 35% now? What specific rate increase was negotiated, has this been done before, and how does this affect future credit card deal negotiations?

Management explained the 35% increase stems from modification of existing contractual agreement combined with preservation of Bonvoy program financial strength and member value. The increase reflects the scale and efficiency of the loyalty program and is not contingent on new credit card deal negotiations, which remain separate.

35% increase in credit card fee guidance for 2026Existing contractual agreement modifiedBonvoy has 271 million membersSeparate from ongoing credit card deal negotiations with Chase and American Express

Michael Bellisario · Baird's

Management previously discussed franchise economics becoming less favorable, especially for new construction. What specific actions are being taken to improve owner and franchisee returns?

Management acknowledged franchisees remain in different recovery stage post-pandemic and committed to attacking every variable in the owner return equation: driving top-line revenue, enhancing margins through affiliation cost review (including lower Bonvoy charge-out rates), and re-evaluating entire hotel operating model including staffing, scheduling, and purchasing practices.

Previously lowered Bonvoy charge-out rate to reduce affiliation costsEvaluating operating model, staffing, scheduling, and purchasing practices globally~40% of investment spending on extending, renovating, and improving existing hotels

David Katz · Jefferies

Has the amount of key money investment year-over-year changed relative to guidance? Could theoretically more key money spending accelerate NUG further, and what's included in the current guidance?

Management confirmed increased key money is required across tiers due to higher financing costs and construction expenses, but emphasized discipline in deployment. Key money per deal signed in 2025 was lower than 2019 and flat to 2024 despite record 1,200 deals signed, demonstrating continued capital discipline. The company deploys capital only when it can drive outsized shareholder economics.

1,200 deals signed in 2024Key money per deal in 2025 lower than 2019 and flat to 2024~40-50% of investment on extending/renovating existing hotels vs. new developmentDistinct pipeline strength in luxury and full service segments (higher margin)

Lizzie Dove · Goldman Sachs

What is the pulse on U.S. consumer health given guidance for better U.S./Canada RevPAR in 2026? Can you provide color on booking windows, leisure/business/group trends, and World Cup impact?

Management characterized consumer outlook as 'steady as she goes' with leisure continuing to significantly outperform (+4% in Q4 globally), group stable with positive attrition, and BT challenged (down in Q4, partly due to government shutdown). Booking windows stable at ~22 days. World Cup expected to provide ~40bps RevPAR benefit. Disparity between high-end and lower-end consumer demand expected to persist but potentially narrow.

Leisure up 4% in Q4 globally; Group up 2%; BT downGroup pace up 6% going into 202622-day booking window in Q4; BT ~7 days shorterGovernment business down 15% year-end

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 worldwide RevPAR delivers inside the +1.0–2.0% guide. Landed at +1.9%, top of the range. The "stalling, not accelerating" read is not validated by Q4 in isolation — but the FY26 guide of +1.5–2.5% (same as FY25) effectively concedes the broader point that 2026 is not a recovery year. Status: Resolved positively (on the in-quarter print), but the structural read remains intact.

U.S. & Canada RevPAR — does the -0.4% Q3 print get worse, or stabilize? U.S. & Canada landed at -0.1%, essentially flat — second consecutive flat-to-negative print. Not the deterioration that would force a re-rating, but not a return to growth either. Bifurcation thesis (international + luxury carrying, U.S. mid-tier stalling) is confirmed. Status: Continue monitoring — a third soft U.S. print in Q1 would harden into a structural read.

Credit-card renewal timing and any early disclosure on economics. The bigger news: a 35% step-up in 2026 credit-card fees from amending the existing contract, independent of the still-pending Chase/Amex renewals. This materially de-risks 2026 EPS and preserves renewal upside. Status: Resolved positively.

2026 formal guidance vs. the "similar to 1.5–2.5%" preliminary view. Formal FY26 worldwide RevPAR guide of +1.5–2.5% — identical to the Q3 preliminary view and to 2025 actual range. No re-acceleration. The narrative now rests on +13–15% EPS growth driven by NUG acceleration, credit-card fee step-up, and a $300M+ increase in capital return — not on RevPAR. Status: Resolved negatively (relative to the bull scenario of a higher 2026 RevPAR band).

Incentive management fee trajectory in Q4. Q4 IMFs grew 16% YoY, well above the "low-to-mid single digits" Q3 framing. Renovation/comps drag was indeed timing, not structural. Status: Resolved positively.

Greater China RevPAR — flat in Q3, with management explicitly calling the environment "challenged." Management's 2026 guide now anticipates Greater China RevPAR "roughly flat year over year" — explicitly embedding flat-China into international growth. International +6.1% in Q4 masked this. Status: Resolved negatively — China is now formally a non-contributor for 2026 rather than a potential recovery lever.

What to watch into next quarter

U.S. & Canada RevPAR direction in Q1 2026. Two consecutive flat-to-negative prints (Q3 -0.4%, Q4 -0.1%) tolerate one more soft quarter; a third negative print would invalidate management's "select-service weakness moderating" framing and force a downward revision to the +1.0–2.0% Q1 RevPAR guide.

Whether the 35% credit-card fee step-up flows through cleanly to Q1 fee revenue. The $1,365–$1,380M Q1 gross fee guide embeds this lift. A miss against this guide would call into question the timing or magnitude of the renegotiated royalty.

Net rooms growth pace vs. the 4.5–5% FY26 guide. FY25 landed at 4.3%, below the "approaching 5%" framing from Q2/Q3. Q1 openings need to track materially above prior-year Q1 to validate the acceleration; the 75%-within-12-months conversion mechanic is the proof point.

Any update on the Chase/Amex credit-card renewals. Management has now positioned these as upside optionality on top of the 35% royalty step-up. Concrete timing or early economic disclosure in Q1 would meaningfully change the 2026 EPS path.

Greater China RevPAR — does the flat 2026 framing hold, or does it slip negative? Management's international growth story embeds flat China. A negative print in Q1 would force the international +6.1% rate down materially and threaten the FY26 worldwide RevPAR guide.

Group pace for 2026. Q4 disclosure was +6% — down from the +8% pace cited in Q2/Q3. Watch whether the cooling continues or stabilizes; a further drop would weaken the medium-term confidence story management has been leaning on for three quarters.

Sources

Marriott International Q4 2025 Earnings Release, filed February 10, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000005/mar-2025q4xex99earningsrel.htm
Marriott International Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call — Q&A excerpts (Tony Capuano, CEO; Leeny Oberg, CFO), February 10, 2026

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