MAR · Q3 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Marriott International

Reported November 4, 2025

30-second summary

Marriott beat its own Q3 guide — adjusted EPS $2.47 vs. a $2.31–$2.39 guide and adjusted EBITDA $1,349M vs. $1,288–$1,318M — and management raised the FY2025 adjusted EBITDA midpoint by ~$14M and the FY EPS midpoint by ~$0.05 while narrowing the ranges. The more important signal sits past the print: management's preliminary 2026 worldwide RevPAR view of "similar to 1.5–2.5%" effectively concedes that next year is not a recovery year, and the credit-card renewal that could move 2026 numbers won't close until "sometime next year."

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$2.47

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$1.73B

+5.6% YoY

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

65.0%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.73B	+5.6%	$1.81B	-4.5%
EPS	$2.47	—	$2.65	-6.8%
Operating margin	65.0%	—	65.0%	+0bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS – diluted	Q3 FY2025	$2.31 to $2.39	$2.47	+$0.08 above guide high end	Beat
Gross fee revenues	Q3 FY2025	$1,310 to $1,325 million	$1,432 million	+$107 million above guide high end	Met
Adjusted EBITDA	Q3 FY2025	$1,288 to $1,318 million	$1,452 million	+$134 million above guide high end	Beat
Comparable systemwide constant $ RevPAR growth	Q3 FY2025	Flat to 1.0%	0.5%	Within guide; lower than Q2 trajectory	Missed

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS – diluted	FY 2025	$9.85 to $10.08	$9.98 to $10.06	Low end raised +$0.13; high end unchanged; midpoint lowered -$0.04	Lowered
Gross fee revenues	FY 2025	$5,365 to $5,420 million	$5,395 to $5,415 million	Range narrowed; low end raised +$30M, high end lowered -$5M; midpoint increased +$12.5M	Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$5,310 to $5,395 million	$5,352 to $5,382 million	Low end raised +$42M; high end lowered -$13M; midpoint lowered -$3M	Lowered
Owned, leased, and other revenue, net of direct expenses	FY 2025	$360 to $370 million	Approx. $370 million	—	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: General, administrative, and other expenses ($975 to $985 million), Comparable systemwide constant $ RevPAR growth (1.5% to 2.5%), Net rooms growth (Approaching 5%)

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Base management fees	$0.314B	+0.6%
Franchise fees	$0.876B	+7.9%
Incentive management fees	$0.148B	-6.9%
Owned, leased, and other revenue, net of direct expenses	$0.094B	+16.0%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Worldwide RevPAR growth (constant $)	0.5%
U.S. & Canada RevPAR growth (constant $)	-0.4%
International RevPAR growth (constant $)	2.6%
Luxury RevPAR growth	4.0%
Net rooms growth (quarter)	17,900 rooms
Net rooms growth (YoY %)	4.7%
Development pipeline	3,923 properties, 596,000 rooms
Marriott Bonvoy membership	260 million members

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 fee durability amid RevPAR deceleration → Q3 cost discipline and fee mix carry a near-flat top line, with 2026 framed as more of the same.

Two quarters ago management framed the demand softness as cyclical noise that the unit-growth flywheel and 2026 group pace would carry investors over. This quarter, the preliminary 2026 RevPAR view — "our preliminary view is that 2026 year-over-year global rev par growth could be similar to the 1.5% to 2.5% growth expected this year" — quietly removes the bridge. "Similar to 2025" is not the language of a team that believes the cycle is turning; it is the language of a team that has stopped forecasting a recovery and is asking investors to underwrite fee growth and unit growth at a flat-RevPAR baseline.

The framing around Q4 acceleration is hedged. "REVPAR growth is anticipated to accelerate from the third quarter, with REVPAR expected to increase 1% to 2% in Q4." The word "accelerate" papers over a 1–2% absolute print. Compared to Q2's prepared remarks, which leaned on the doubled mid-scale pipeline and the 2026 group pace step-up to +8%, this quarter's framing is notably more about cost control and fee diversification than demand inflection.

The credit-card renewal commentary shifted from "we expect to land it" to "our best estimate right now is that we could have new deals in place sometime next year." That is a real degradation in timing certainty. The 2024 base of $660M in credit-card branding fees growing 9% in 2025 is the anchor — but any uplift from a renewal is now a 2026-second-half or 2027 story, not a 2026 earnings catalyst as previously implied.

On Greater China, the language hardened: "The operating environment in greater China remains challenged by weaker macro conditions, though our market share across the region continued to grow." Q2's call positioned international momentum as the primary growth driver; this quarter the international story now requires a "China is challenged but we're gaining share" caveat that wasn't there before.

The bifurcation theme sharpened. "REVPAR growth was strongest at the higher end, as high-end consumers have demonstrated resilience to macroeconomic uncertainties... performance weakened down the chain scales." Luxury +4% vs. select service negative is the same story Marriott has been telling for two quarters, but the gap is widening, not closing, and the US select service weakness is now showing up in headline US & Canada RevPAR.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Macroeconomic uncertainty persisting globallyLuxury/premium brands outperforming lower chain scalesInternational RevPAR growth exceeding U.S. performancePortfolio expansion through conversions and strong pipeline momentumFee revenue growth offsetting modest RevPAR growthTechnology platform transformation as multi-year initiative

Risks management surfaced:

Ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty impacting RevPAR growthWeakness in select service brands in U.S. and CanadaGreater China market challenged by weaker macro conditionsGovernment transient RevPAR declining 14%Business transient demand declining in key markets

Q&A highlights

Sean Kelly · Bank of America

Seeking details on credit card program renewal negotiations including current program size, parameters for renegotiation relative to 2017 deal, and timing (early vs late in year) given potential earnings contribution.

Management declined to provide specifics due to active negotiations but highlighted Bonvoy's exponential growth since 2017 (membership doubled to 260M, co-brand accounts and spending up ~80%, system size up 50% to 9,700 properties). Emphasized that growth in Bonvoy translates to more cardholders and spending, expecting this reflected in co-brand fees. 2024 credit card branding fees were $660M, expecting 9% growth in 2025. Teams will work diligently to complete negotiations quickly.

2024 credit card branding fees: $660 million2025 expected growth: 9%Bonvoy membership: ~260 million (doubled from 110M in 2017)Co-brand accounts and global spending: both grew ~80% since end of 2017

David Katz · Jefferies

Investment spending moved to higher end of guidance range. Requested unpacking of drivers and specific color on key money trending.

Increase not driven by development-related key money philosophy changes, but rather clearer visibility around non-development-related expenditures including tech transformation timing, owned/lease capex, and timing of existing hotel base investments. Key money amounts and usage for new unit development remain consistent.

Investment spending broken into three roughly equal categories: key money, tech investments, and capex/leaseIncrease driven by timing clarity on non-development expenditures, not key money philosophy changeKey money usage for new unit development remains consistent in amounts and approach

Dan Pulitzer · J.P. Morgan

Requested unpacking of 2026 outlook (1.5-2.5% REVPAR growth) including assumptions on leisure, business transient, and group with pacing details.

U.S. expected slightly higher next year driven by 30-35 bps benefit from World Cup in U.S./Canada. Group pace up 7% (U.S. up 8%), very encouraging. Leisure expected to continue as stronger performer, particularly upper chain scales. Overall fairly similar environment globally. Luxury segment particularly strong with 4% RedBar Index leadership.

2026 expected U.S. REVPAR improvement driven by World Cup (30-35 bps benefit)Group pace for 2026: up 7% globally, up 8% in U.S.Luxury rooms: 10% of portfolio; Upper upscale: 42% of portfolioQ3 2024 luxury RedBar Index: up 4%

Stephen Grambling · Morgan Stanley

Pipeline improvement specifically on under construction pipeline showing sequential and strong year-over-year growth. Requested detail on strength sources and impact of rate environment changes.

Conversions momentum continues strong and feeds under construction pipeline materially, expected to represent one-third of 2026 room openings with trend in signings staying same or moving up. Marriott has leading share: 29% of signed and 28% of under construction in U.S. Q3 saw pickup in rooms going under construction but overall trend similar to recent periods. Still meaningfully below 2019 construction starts. Some pickup in asset sale transactions in proven markets/brands but need more financing environment improvement for dramatic new build pickup.

Expected conversion rooms: one-third of 2026 room openingsU.S. Marriott share of signings: 29%U.S. Marriott share of under construction: 28%Current construction starts: meaningfully below 2019 levels

Patrick Scholes · Truist

Requested detail on latest development trends in APAC and China specifically.

Both regions seeing double-digit rooms growth with disproportionate signings share. APAC: 8% of existing rooms but 15% of pipeline. Greater China: 11% of existing rooms and 18% of pipeline. APAC growth driven by rapidly growing economies with lodging supply needs (India, Indonesia, Japan) with Marriott outperforming competitors across chain scales. Greater China signings up 24% YoY, concentrated in upscale tier due to lower volatility/unit costs vs luxury. Strong demand for brands with Bonvoy power and competitive affiliation/operating costs.

APAC: 8% of existing rooms, 15% of pipelineGreater China: 11% of existing rooms, 18% of pipelineGreater China YoY room signings growth (through Q3): 24%Greater China domestic traveler mix: low 80% (vs pre-COVID baseline)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Worldwide RevPAR vs. the flat-to-+1.0% guide. Landed at +0.5%, squarely in the middle of the guide. The "macro uncertainty, not deterioration" framing survives technically — but the FY range was reaffirmed at +1.5–2.5% despite Q3 at +0.5% and Q4 guided to +1.0–2.0%, which implies the FY math leans on regional mix or rounding more than the print suggests. Status: Continue monitoring

US & Canada RevPAR direction. Turned negative at -0.4%, crossing the threshold flagged last quarter as signaling the deceleration has moved from soft-landing to contraction. Select service was the explicit driver. Status: Resolved negatively

Government business transient stabilization. Government transient RevPAR down 14% in Q3 vs. -17% in Q2 — modest improvement, not a further leg down. Management's "stabilized at lower levels" assertion from Q2 holds up. Status: Resolved positively

Net rooms growth vs. "approaching 5%" FY guide. Q3 net rooms grew 4.7% YoY (17,900 rooms added), unchanged from Q2's run-rate. FY guide reaffirmed at "approaching 5%". Pipeline grew to 596,000 rooms from 590k. Status: Continue monitoring — the math still requires Q4 to deliver to hit "approaching 5%".

2026 group pace. Held at +7% globally / +8% US — same as the Q2 update, no further step-up. Combined with the preliminary "similar to 2025" RevPAR view, the medium-term confidence story is intact but not strengthening. Status: Continue monitoring

Capex envelope and $4B capital return commitment. Capital return reaffirmed at ~$4,000M for FY2025. Investment spending moved to the high end of the prior range for timing reasons (per Jefferies Q&A), not a step-up in commitments. Status: Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q4 worldwide RevPAR delivers inside the +1.0–2.0% guide. A print below +1.0% would force a FY RevPAR cut below the reaffirmed +1.5–2.5% range and validate the "stalling, not accelerating" read on the trajectory.

US & Canada RevPAR — does the -0.4% Q3 print get worse, or stabilize? Two consecutive negative US prints would force a re-rating of the bifurcation thesis; a return to flat or modestly positive would suggest the Q3 select-service weakness was transient.

Credit-card renewal timing and any early disclosure on economics. Management's "sometime next year" language is a downgrade from Q2's framing. If Q4 brings no further clarity, the 2026 EPS path looks unchanged and the renewal becomes a 2027 catalyst.

2026 formal guidance vs. the "similar to 1.5–2.5%" preliminary view. A formal initial 2026 guide at the high end of that band — or anything stronger — would reaccelerate the narrative; a guide below would confirm that 2026 is a hold-the-line year.

Incentive management fee trajectory in Q4. Management now expects Q4 IMFs to rise low-to-mid single digits, with full-year IMFs roughly flat. A miss here would suggest the renovation/comps drag is structural, not timing.

Greater China RevPAR — flat in Q3, with management explicitly calling the environment "challenged." A return to negative territory would meaningfully hurt the international-as-growth-engine story.

Sources

Marriott International Q3 2025 Earnings Release, filed November 4, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828625000011/mar-2025q3xex99earningsrel.htm
Marriott International Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call — prepared remarks and Q&A excerpts (Tony Capuano, CEO; Leny Oberg, CFO), November 4, 2025

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