MPWR · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Monolithic Power Systems

Reported April 30, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue of $804.2M (+26.1% YoY, +7.1% QoQ) cleared the $770M–$790M guide by $14M above the high end, but the bigger signal is forward: management raised the 2026 Enterprise Data growth floor from 50% to 85% YoY, and Q2 revenue is guided to $890M–$910M — a $110M sequential step-up implying +35–38% YoY off the $660M Q2 FY2025 base. Capacity ambition also stepped up, with the prior $4B plan now extended to a "$6B near future" target. Cash opex is rebasing again — Q2 non-GAAP opex midpoint of $169M is +$11M above Q1's guided range — but with revenue accelerating, the operating leverage question is now timing rather than structure.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$5.10

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$0.80B

+26.1% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

55.5%

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

35.8%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.80B	+26.1%	$0.75B	+7.1%
EPS	$5.10	—	$4.79	+6.5%
Gross margin	55.5%	—	55.5%	+0bps
Operating margin	35.8%	—	35.8%	+0bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$770 million to $790 million	$804.2 million	+$14.2 million above guide high end	Beat
GAAP Gross Margin	Q1 FY2026	54.9% to 55.5%	55.5%	in-line	Met
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q1 FY2026	55.2% to 55.8%	55.5%	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$890 million to $910 million	+34.8% to +37.9% YoY
GAAP Gross Margin	Q2 FY2026	55.1% to 55.7%	—
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q2 FY2026	55.3% to 55.9%	—
GAAP Operating Expenses	Q2 FY2026	$219.1 million to $225.1 million	—
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses	Q2 FY2026	$167.0 million to $171.0 million	—
Stock-Based Compensation and Related Expenses	Q2 FY2026	$53.8 million to $55.8 million	—
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding	Q2 FY2026	49.1 to 49.5 million	—

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
Enterprise Data	$0.263B	+97.7%
Storage & Computing	$0.174B	-7.5%
Automotive	$0.152B	+5.1%
Communications	$0.112B	+55.5%
Consumer	$0.055B	-4.2%
Industrial	$0.049B	+14.2%

Capacity & utilization

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Days Sales Outstanding	34 days
Days Inventory Outstanding	157 days (current), 140 days (next quarter)
Cash and Short-term Investments	$1,367.1M

Profitability

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Operating Cash Flow	$250.3M

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover → AI experiments → AI-driven re-acceleration → Backlog-extended conviction → Capacity expansion mode.

One quarter ago management raised the 2026 Enterprise Data growth floor from 30–40% to "more than 50%." This quarter Bernie raised it again to 85% YoY — a 35-point jump in three months. In Q&A with TD Cowen's Joshua Buchalter, management framed this as a function of "strong ordering patterns" rather than a one-time pull-in. The Q2 revenue midpoint of $900M, up $110M sequentially in a single quarter on a $660M YoY base, makes the raised floor mathematically consistent rather than aspirational. The shift signals that the backlog-visibility regime Bernie described last quarter has hardened into committed orders extending well into 2026.

Three quarters ago management was deliberately downplaying AI with "initial shipments" language. Two quarters ago AI vs. CPU got reframed as "increasingly blurred." This quarter, when pressed by TD Cowen to parse AI vs. CPU content within enterprise data growth, management explicitly refused — citing complexity of differentiation. The refusal is itself a tone shift: rather than reframing the question, management is now declining to engage with it because the answer doesn't change the trajectory. CPU remains a confirmed tailwind in 2026 (per Deutsche Bank exchange), and both AI accelerator and CPU sides are contributing to the raised floor.

The capacity narrative is the cleanest signal of conviction. The prior $4B plan, articulated when Enterprise Data was a swing segment, is now extended to "$6B in the near future." That is a 50% capacity expansion goal disclosed in the same press release as a Q2 revenue midpoint that annualizes to $3.6B — implying management is sizing capacity for materially above that run-rate by 2027–2028. The opex rebase from $148M (Q4 FY2025 actual) to $167–171M (Q2 FY2026 guide) is the cost-side validation of this commitment; it is no longer a question of whether opex sustains at the new base, but how much higher it goes as the $6B target gets built out.

Management's posture on technology positioning sharpened. With Needham's Quinn Bolton, MPS clarified that GaN is being developed for low-voltage/lower-power segments only, with silicon carbide carrying the load for 800V and higher applications — and that planning extends to 10,000V power conversion. That degree of architectural specificity, including the explicit "20-year reliability history" justification for SiC at high voltage, reflects a company that has made its bets and is now defending them rather than hedging across competing technologies.

The cautionary framing that defined Q2 FY2025's print ("swiftly adapt to market changes as they occur") is absent here. The only hedging in this quarter's qualitative statements is the boilerplate "fluid geopolitical and macro-economic environment, but our diversified market strategy remains unchanged."

Q&A highlights

Ross Seymour · Deutsche Bank

Inquired about trends between XPU and CPU server side in enterprise data, noting improved backlog and visibility in both segments.

Management confirmed CPU remains a tailwind in 2026 as it was in 2025. All growth drivers remain intact with new customer ramps, existing customer ramps, transition to modules, and plain server as continued tailwind. Storage remains strong driven by data center business with DDR5 and HDD strength. Notebooks remain cautious due to potential TAM headwinds from memory shortages and elasticity.

CPU confirmed as tailwind continuing from 2025 into 2026All enterprise data growth drivers remain intactStorage segment strong, indexed to data center businessDDR5 and HDFSDD momentum continuing from 2025

Joshua Buchalter · TD Cowen

Requested guidance by segment for 12% sequential growth expected in June quarter; asked about AI accelerator share and content confidence versus CPU contribution to incremental upside.

Enterprise data raised to 85% YoY growth floor (up from 50% prior call) driven by strong ordering patterns. Communications expected to be a driver with optical module and switch growth. Auto expected flat in H1, ramping in H2. Storage/compute optimistic on data center pull-through, cautious on notebook. Management declined to parse AI vs. CPU split, noting difficulty in differentiating and complexity of portable AI devices overlapping with CPU/GPU powered segments.

Enterprise data YoY growth floor raised to 85% (from 50% prior)Communications segment above corporate average growth expectedAuto expected roughly flat H1, ramp in H2Management refused detailed AI vs. CPU content breakdown, citing difficulty in separation

Quinn Bolton · Needham and Company

Asked whether comms segment could grow as fast or faster than enterprise data given 800 gig module doubling trends; also inquired about 800+ volt sampling feedback and GaN vs. SiC positioning for high-power conversion.

Management noted strong activity and demand for high-power density products in comms, especially modules, but declined to predict market trends or commit to outpacing enterprise data growth. Confirmed sampling of 800V products with customers. Clarified GaN development is for low voltage/lower power segments only; 800V and higher applications use silicon carbide, with plans extending to 10,000V development. Emphasized monolithic integration advantage over discrete competitor approaches.

800 gig optical module growth strong, power density criticalSampling 800V products in co-development with customers and customer end-usersGaN developed for low voltage/lower power segments only, not high voltageSilicon carbide chosen for 800V+ due to 20-year reliability history and deep MPS know-how

Rick Schaefer · Oppenheimer & Co.

Asked about supply chain capability to capture full enterprise data upside given top 4 CPUs' combined $700B+ capex; also inquired about MPS plans and TAM for physical AI/robotics segment and timeline for meaningful revenue contribution.

Management emphasized MPS as one of only a few players capable of handling accelerator power due to monolithic solutions and single-chip integration vs. competitors' multiple components. Stated commitment to diversified position, not dominant supplier role. For robotics: revenue expected this year but volumes still low. Market is very early; highlighted typical MPS playbook of broad engagement and design wins without controlling customer ramp timing. Building automation and audio projects highlighted as foundation for 2-3 year growth trajectory.

Only a few suppliers capable of serving high-power GPU acceleration marketMPS provides monolithic power solutions with single silicon vs. competitors' multiple componentsRobotics revenue expected in 2026 but volume still low, impact slightHumanoid robots most visible but unpredictable; broader robotics focus on battery-powered, cordless units

Gary Mobley · Loop Capital

Asked about content levels in 800 gig optical modules and top-rack switches within rack-scale accelerated compute solutions; also inquired about distribution channel inventory leanness and pricing/inflation pass-through.

Management declined to provide specific dollar content per customer or solution type, noting multiple power opportunities across processors in racks (modules, switches, NIC cards, etc.). Confirmed communications segment expansion across multiple applications. Distribution channel confirmed as lean in 2025 and into 2026, shipping to end-market demand. Pricing: some input costs higher; where demand for expedited supply exists, MPS raising prices to maintain gross margin targets.

No specific content guidance for optical modules or switchesMultiple power points in rack-scale solutions: optical modules, switches, NIC cards, processorsDistribution channel lean throughout 2025 and into 2026Selective price increases implemented for expedited supply chains

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the raised 50%+ 2026 Enterprise Data growth floor holds after one quarter of execution. Enterprise Data printed $262.8M in Q1 (+97.7% YoY, +$29M QoQ off the $234M Q4 base) and management raised the 2026 floor again to 85% YoY in Q&A with TD Cowen. The Q1 print cleared the $250M threshold the watch list flagged as the early-tell level.

Resolved positively

Whether non-GAAP opex stabilizes at the new $156M–$160M base or drifts higher. Q1 actual opex was not disclosed in the press-release fields available, but Q2 guidance of $167M–$171M is $11M above the Q1 guide midpoint — the third sequential opex step-up. Management is now openly tying opex to a $6B capacity goal, making this a structural ramp rather than a one-quarter rebase.

Resolved negatively

Storage and Computing recovery off the $162M Q4 print. Segment recovered to $174.4M in Q1, +$12M QoQ — about half of the $24M Q4 sequential decline reversed. YoY remains -7.5%, but the QoQ recovery supports the benign mix-shift read over genuine customer softness.

Resolved positively

Whether management quantifies a full-year 2026 revenue range. No FY2026 revenue range was disclosed in the press release. Management did extend the capacity plan from $4B to $6B "in the near future" and raised the Enterprise Data growth floor, but stopped short of a bounded full-year revenue commitment.

Continue monitoring

Whether longer customer ordering patterns extend further into 2026. The Q&A exchanges confirmed sustained backlog momentum — the raised 85% Enterprise Data floor and the +12% QoQ Q2 guide both rely on order patterns that extend beyond H1. Management didn't explicitly push visibility into Q3-Q4 2026, but the conviction in the floor raise is the indirect signal.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q2 revenue actuals hit or exceed the $900M midpoint. A clean beat of the $910M high end would validate the +12% QoQ acceleration and the raised 85% Enterprise Data floor. A miss below $890M would signal the floor raise is running ahead of execution.

Whether Q2 non-GAAP opex prints at or below the guided $169M midpoint. Two of the last three quarters opex came in above the high end of guide. A third quarter of guide-busting opex would push the run-rate toward $180M and meaningfully compress 2026 operating leverage despite revenue acceleration.

Whether Enterprise Data sustains above $260M after the $29M Q1 sequential step. A second consecutive sequential gain in Q2 would imply the 85% 2026 floor is conservative. A sequential decline below $250M would call the raised floor into question.

Whether management discloses a full-year 2026 revenue range at the Q2 print. Continued silence despite an 85% Enterprise Data floor and a $6B capacity plan would imply second-half 2026 visibility remains limited. Disclosure would mark the highest conviction step yet.

Whether days inventory normalizes from 157 to the guided 140. This is the cleanest leading indicator on whether the Q2 revenue step-up is supply-led (planned build) or demand-led (sell-through). A miss on the 140-day target would suggest the inventory build outpaced shipments.

Whether Storage and Computing continues recovering toward the Q3 FY2025 peak of $186.6M. Another $10M+ QoQ gain would confirm the mix-shift read; a sequential reversal would reopen the customer-softening question.

Sources

Monolithic Power Systems Q1 FY2026 press release (SEC Edgar Form 8-K exhibit): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926014182/ex_929254.htm
Q1 FY2026 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, Needham, Oppenheimer, Loop Capital)

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