Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

MPWR · Q4 2025 Earnings

Monolithic Power Systems

Reported February 5, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue of $751.0M (+20.8% YoY, +1.9% QoQ) cleared the high end of the $730M–$750M guide, and management explicitly raised the 2026 Enterprise Data growth floor from a prior 30–40% range to "more than 50%" — citing extended customer ordering patterns as the inflection. The Q1 FY2026 revenue guide of $770M–$790M implies another 2.5–5.2% sequential step-up, but the real signal is non-GAAP opex resetting to $156M–$160M (up ~$10M at the midpoint vs. Q4's guide), which now appears to be a structural rebase rather than a one-quarter overshoot.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$4.79

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.75B

+20.8% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

55.5%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

35.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.75B	+20.8%	$0.74B	+1.9%
EPS	$4.79	—	$4.73	+1.3%
Gross margin	55.5%	—	55.1%	+40bps
Operating margin	35.8%	—	26.5%	+930bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$730.0M to $750.0M	$751.0M	+$1M above guide	Beat
GAAP Gross Margin	Q4 FY2025	54.9% to 55.5%	55.5%	at high end of guide	Met
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q4 FY2025	55.2% to 55.8%	55.5%	in-line with guide	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$770M to $790M	—
GAAP Gross Margin	Q1 FY2026	54.9% to 55.5%	—
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	Q1 FY2026	55.2% to 55.8%	—
GAAP Operating Expenses	Q1 FY2026	$207.1M to $213.1M	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses	Q4 FY2025	$145.5M to $149.5M	$156.0M to $160.0M	+$6.5M to +$10.5M midpoint increase	Raised
Stock-based Compensation and Related Expenses	Q4 FY2025	$63.2M to $65.2M	$52.8M to $54.8M	-$8.4M to -$10.4M midpoint decrease	Lowered
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding	Q4 FY2025	48.5M to 48.9M	49.0M to 49.4M	+0.5M to +0.5M shares	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Interest and Other Income ($7.4M to $7.8M)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Enterprise Data	$0.234B	+19.8%
Storage & Computing	$0.162B	+18.8%
Automotive	$0.151B	+17.6%
Communications	$0.084B	+31.2%
Industrial	$0.055B	+34.1%
Consumer	$0.066B	+15.5%

Capacity & utilization

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Days Sales Outstanding	31 days
Days Inventory Outstanding	153 days
Cash & Short-term Investments	$1.26B
Non-Enterprise Data End Markets YoY Growth	>40%
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding	49.2M

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$104.9M

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover → AI experiments → AI-driven re-acceleration → Backlog-extended conviction.

Last quarter's framing of Enterprise Data was a $190M segment growing 3.8% YoY — the swing factor where short lead times kept visibility murky. This quarter Bernie reframed the entire visibility regime: "the anomaly had been that we'd been seeing very short lead times and that they were not putting a lot of backlog in our books. And I'd say that the fundamental change that also making us more confident right now is that we are seeing longer ordering patterns because some of our customers are concerned about capacity constraints." The shift from "no backlog, two-quarter visibility" to "longer ordering patterns extending into Q2-Q3 2026" is the single most important tone change in this print — it is what underwrites the willingness to raise the 2026 growth floor.

Three quarters ago AI ASIC was "initial shipments" with management deliberately downplaying the contribution. Last quarter the bull case was implicit in segment growth without explicit forward commitment. This quarter Michael explicitly raised the 2026 Enterprise Data floor mid-call: "Whereas last quarter I talked about a range of between 30% and 40%, maybe I can increase that to a floor of 50% growth for 2025 [2026]" — and when pressed, added "I don't see why not. It's not only 50%. We'll be more than that." This is the most direct forward-numeric commitment management has volunteered in coverage, and it inverts the Q2 posture of "swiftly adapting to market changes."

The strategic narrative on AI vs. CPU power has also collapsed. In Q2 management called the distinction "increasingly blurred"; this quarter Michael went further: "the lines between AI GPUs and CPU are getting pretty blurry because they're so integral to one another these days. They're using the same kind of power supply now." That reframing matters because it broadens the addressable opportunity beyond the merchant-GPU vs. ASIC debate the Street has been litigating, and it validates MPWR's unified power solution thesis.

Hedging remains, but it is narrower and farther out. Management is now confident in first-half 2026 ("the first half for enterprise data in particular, but for the company, is more secure") and explicit that second-half visibility is the remaining unknown. That is a meaningfully different shape than last quarter's two-quarter visibility ceiling. The decision to withhold a full-year 2026 revenue range despite raising the Enterprise Data floor is the tell — confidence in trajectory, hesitation to bound it.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Enterprise data supply chain maturation with extended backlog visibilityBlurring lines between AI/GPU and CPU power requirements enabling unified solutionsDiversified non-enterprise data growth (40% YoY) reducing concentration riskModularization and vertical integration strategy expanding across optical, storage, and data centerSupply chain resilience through capacity investments and geographically balanced suppliersOptical modules and co-packaged optics emerging as high-growth opportunity

Risks management surfaced:

Macro uncertainty in automotive market including tariffs and EV subsidy changesMemory shortage potential impact on automotive segmentDouble ordering risk as customers secure capacity, making demand visibility difficultPC market weakness and selective participation strategyUncertainty around GAN vs. silicon carbide technology preference for 800V rack solutions

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 revenue actual lands at or above the $740M midpoint. Revenue of $751M cleared the high end ($750M) of the guide by $1M and the midpoint by $11M. The beat is modest in dollars but the more important signal is the segment composition — Enterprise Data reaccelerated to +19.8% YoY.

Resolved positively

Whether opex pulls back toward the prior guide range or sustains near Q3 actual. Q4 non-GAAP opex came in at $148.1M (vs. guide $145.5M–$149.5M, in-range; flat vs. Q3 $148.3M). The Q1 FY2026 guide of $156M–$160M is ~$10M above the Q4 actual, indicating a structural rebase rather than a one-quarter overshoot.

Resolved negatively

Non-GAAP gross margin trajectory. Q4 non-GAAP gross margin printed at 55.5%, in the middle of the 55.2%–55.8% guide and identical to Q3. The Q1 FY2026 guide is unchanged at 55.2%–55.8%. No drift toward the low end.

Resolved positively

Enterprise Data sustainability at the $190M+ level. Enterprise Data printed $234M in Q4, up from $191.5M in Q3 — a $42M sequential gain. The segment held leadership and accelerated YoY growth from +3.8% to +19.8%. Combined with the raised 50%+ 2026 growth floor, this fully resolves the swing-factor concern.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the raised 50%+ 2026 Enterprise Data growth floor holds after one quarter of execution. Q1 FY2026 Enterprise Data run-rate needs to imply a full-year above the prior $234M Q4 × 4 = $936M trajectory at minimum. A Q1 print materially below $250M would call the 50%+ floor into question early.

Whether non-GAAP opex stabilizes at the new $156M–$160M base or drifts higher. Two consecutive quarters of opex above the prior guide framework (Q3 actual $148.3M, Q1 guide $156–$160M) suggest a structural reset. A third sequential creep would meaningfully change the operating leverage model on the 2026 revenue ramp.

Storage and Computing recovery off the $162M Q4 print. The segment shed $24M QoQ. If Q1 holds at $160M-ish, the read is mix shift back into Enterprise Data, which is benign. A second sequential decline would suggest genuine softening at a customer or sub-segment.

Whether management quantifies a full-year 2026 revenue range. The withholding of an FY range despite explicit Enterprise Data confidence is notable. Disclosure of one in Q1 would mark the next step-up in conviction; continued silence would imply second-half 2026 visibility remains limited.

Whether longer customer ordering patterns extend further into 2026. Bernie's first-half-secure / second-half-uncertain framing is the explicit boundary. Watch for any commentary in Q1 that pushes backlog visibility into Q3-Q4 2026.

Sources

Monolithic Power Systems Q4 FY2025 press release (SEC Edgar Form 8-K exhibit): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926003191/ex_886152.htm

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