NDAQ · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Nasdaq, Inc.

Reported July 23, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 15% YoY to $1.5B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.07 beat consensus by 10.3%, with ARR organic holding at 12% (its second straight quarter at the new inflection) and non-GAAP operating margin at 57.3%. But management raised FY2026 opex guidance a second consecutive time — midpoint moves from $2.515B to $2.550B (+$35M / +1.4%) — meaning the FY range has now moved up ~$55M at midpoint from January's original $2.455–$2.535B initiation. Against a clean revenue beat and an ARR line that's compounded from 9% to 12% over four quarters, the second raise reads as funding acceleration rather than cost pressure — but the three-point Solutions-vs-opex gap framework is now materially harder to defend without divisional revenue disclosure that still hasn't arrived.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.07

+10.3% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.50B

+15.0% YoY

+4.2% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

47.4%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$1.50B	$1.31B	+14.9%	$1.41B	+6.6%
EPS	$1.07	$0.85	+25.9%	$0.96	+11.5%
Operating margin	47.4%	55.0%	-760bps	46.6%	+80bps

Guidance

Nasdaq raised FY2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance by ~$20M at midpoint while reaffirming tax rate, reflecting higher compensation and expense growth post-strong Q2 beat.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP Operating Expense	FY 2026	$2.485 billion to $2.545 billion	$2.530 billion to $2.570 billion	midpoint +$0.020B higher; range shifted up by $0.015-0.025B	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-GAAP Tax Rate (22.5% to 24.5%)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Capital Access Platforms	$0.621B	$0.527B	+17.8%
Financial Technology	$0.539B	$0.464B	+16.2%
Market Services	$0.34B	$1.09B	-68.8%

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Capital Returns (Dividends + Buybacks)	$530 million

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR)	$3,258 million	$2.931 billion	—
ARR Growth YoY	11% reported, 12% organic	—	—
Financial Technology ARR Growth	16% organic	—	—
Index ETP Assets Under Management	$1,114 billion	$745 billion	—
Index ETP Net Inflows (TTM)	$109 billion	—	—
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)	57.3%	—	—
Operating Cash Flow	$711 million	—	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; the tone read is drawn from press-release language against the four-quarter prior-brief arc.

Narrative arc: Q3 FY2025 milestone validation with FCMT recalibration → Q4 FY2025 industry-architect posture with launch-path tokenization → Q1 FY2026 capabilities-as-operating-model with quantified AI adoption → Q2 FY2026 trusted-transformation-partner framing around AI, market modernization, and regulatory complexity.

The press-release framing shifted from Q1's internal-execution confidence ("one of the strongest starts to a year in our history") to Q2's external-positioning language: "As the forces reshaping global finance accelerate, from AI and market modernization to the increasingly complex regulatory and risk environment, Nasdaq's role as our clients' trusted transformation partner positions us for sustained leadership." The pivot from execution proof to structural positioning is subtle but consistent with a company whose ARR has now compounded from 9% to 12% organic over four quarters and needs a next-order narrative — the "operating model" language of Q1 has matured into "transformation partner" language in Q2.

The capital-allocation framing in Q2 reintroduced "durable business model and consistent execution" and "disciplined capital allocation strategy" language that had faded from Q1's more forward-leaning tone. Reading this against a second consecutive opex raise, the vocabulary appears preemptive — management flagging discipline while raising the number, likely in anticipation of the buy-side question that the transcript would have surfaced. The Q1 press release didn't need this framing; the Q2 press release chose to include it.

The absence of updated divisional revenue commentary — Q1's watch item that carried forward from Q4 FY2025 — persists into Q2. Four consecutive quarters (Q3 FY2025, Q4 FY2025, Q1 FY2026, Q2 FY2026) have now passed without FY2026 divisional revenue guidance, spanning Investor Day and two opex raises. The silence at this point is a deliberate posture, not a timing issue, and it makes the "three-point gap" framework increasingly a management claim rather than an investor framework.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 opex step-up magnitude — Resolved negatively. Not only did the Q2 comp-cycle bulge arrive, but management raised the FY2026 opex guide a second consecutive time to $2.530–$2.570B, +$35M at midpoint from the Q1 guide. Cumulative FY2026 midpoint has moved +$55M / +2.2% since January's initial framing. The three-point Solutions-vs-opex gap framework is now materially harder to defend without divisional Solutions revenue disclosure — the exact question the Q1 watch list flagged.

Resolved negatively

ARR organic sustaining at 12%+ — Resolved positively. ARR organic held at 12% in Q2, with ARR reaching $3.258B (from $3.188B in Q1). The Q1 concern that FY2025 enterprise signings front-loaded the acceleration didn't materialize. FinTech ARR grew 16% organic, standalone. This is now two consecutive quarters at the new pace.

Resolved positively

Index Q2 capture step-up confirmation — Resolved positively (inferred). Capital Access Platforms revenue jumped to +19% YoY in Q2, the strongest print in the four-quarter window, consistent with the contracted-rate tier stepping up as management flagged in Q1. Index ETP AUM crossed $1T to $1.114T and TTM inflows accelerated to $109B. Without transcript segment sub-line detail, the Index-specific revenue number can't be isolated cleanly, but the segment aggregate confirms the direction.

Resolved positively

FY2026 divisional revenue framework — Resolved negatively. Four consecutive quarters have now passed without FY2026 divisional revenue guidance. With Q2 in hand and Investor Day behind, the silence is deliberate, not timing. Combined with two opex raises, the absence of a revenue framework makes the Solutions-vs-opex gap discipline claim increasingly opaque to outside investors.

Resolved negatively

Agentic AI revenue attribution disclosure — Not resolved on the press-release read. Without transcript, no agentic-AI ARR, attach rate, or pricing disclosure is confirmable from the print. The 500+ Verafin client count disclosed in Q1 was not updated in the Q2 press release.

Continue monitoring

Tokenization first-trade milestone — Not resolved on the press-release read. No new dated counterparty commitment, regulatory engagement update, or first-issuer announcement surfaced in the Q2 press release.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Third consecutive opex raise risk: cumulative FY2026 midpoint has moved +$55M / +2.2% in two quarters. Watch whether the Q3 print holds the $2.530–$2.570B range or whether a third raise arrives — a third raise would break the "modest funding-of-momentum" framing and force the discipline claim into a real credibility problem.

ARR organic at 12%+ for a third consecutive quarter: Q1 inflection, Q2 confirmation — Q3 becomes the print that either turns 12% into the new base rate or reveals it as a two-quarter bulge. Watch for the number specifically, not just the "double-digit" framing.

Financial Technology deceleration follow-through: Q2 FinTech revenue growth decelerated to +16% reported from Q1's +20% reported / +18% organic. Without segment sub-line disclosure, the driver is opaque. Watch whether Q3 stabilizes or continues decelerating — if the latter, the FCM enterprise-conversion thesis needs re-underwriting.

Divisional revenue framework introduction: four quarters of silence. Watch whether Q3 introduces any divisional revenue commentary or whether management explicitly declines to guide revenue for a second year running — the latter would confirm that visibility caution outweighs bullish tone.

Capital return cadence: $530M in Q2 vs $700M+ in Q1. Watch whether the pace normalizes back up in Q3 or whether Q2's step-down signals capital being preserved for something specific (M&A, larger authorization refresh).

Transcript disclosures on AI monetization and tokenization: with the earnings call still to be assessed, watch prepared remarks and Q&A for Verafin agentic client-count updates, any AI-attach-rate disclosure, and DCCC first-trade counterparty naming.

Sources

Nasdaq, Inc. Q2 FY2026 press release (Exhibit 99.1, SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000011/earningsrelease2q26ex-991.htm

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