tapebrief
NUE · Q1 2026

NUE · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Nucor

Reported July 27, 2026

30-second summary

Nucor delivered $5.04 GAAP EPS ($4.84 adjusted) on $10.40B revenue (+23% YoY, +9.5% QoQ) — with steel mill shipments hitting a second consecutive quarterly record at 7.1M tons and steel mills external ASP rising to $1,145/ton (+$71 QoQ, +6.6%). Q3 is guided higher again on steel mills (pricing lift, stable volumes) and steel products (both volume AND price), with raw materials the sole segment giving back on margin compression. The Q1 lag-effect recovery thesis has now compounded for a second quarter, and the "significantly higher" FY 2026 earnings framing set in Q1 is comfortably tracking. Note: the reported steel mills segment step includes a $130M one-time COGS reduction from prior-period raw materials procurement refunds — a material tailwind to the QoQ compare.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$4.84

+6.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$10.40B

+23.0% YoY

+2.5% vs est.

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$10.40B$8.46B+23.0%$9.50B+9.5%
EPS$4.84$2.60+86.2%$3.23+49.8%

Guidance

Q2 FY2026 beat consensus on both revenue and EPS; company maintains positive forward momentum for Q3 with higher consolidated earnings expected, driven by steel mills and steel products segment strength amid pricing power and improved volumes.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ2 FY2026Not numerically specified$10.397 billion+2.5% above estimate; +23% YoY growthBeat
EPS (GAAP)Q2 FY2026Not numerically specified$5.04+6.4% above consensus estimate of $4.55Beat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Steel Mills segment earningsQ3 FY2026Expected increase due to higher realized pricing across all major product categories with stable volumes—
Steel Products segment earningsQ3 FY2026Expected increase due to both higher volumes and higher realized pricing—
Raw Materials segment earningsQ3 FY2026Expected decrease due to lower margins—
Consolidated reported earningsQ3 FY2026Expected higher consolidated reported earnings in the third quarter of 2026—

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Steel Mills Total Shipments7,100 thousand tons——
Steel Mills Utilization91%——
External Average Sales Price per Ton$1,367——
Steel Mills External Average Sales Price per Ton$1,145——
Average Scrap/Scrap Substitute Cost per Gross Ton$422——
EBITDA$2,020 million$1.295 billion—
Sales Tons to External Customers7,605 thousand tons——
Steel Products External Average Sales Price per Ton$2,415——

Management tone

Q3-2025 demand bifurcation → Q4-2025 inflection point declaration → Q1 FY2026 record-print validation → Q2 FY2026 record compounds with segment-level transparency.

Note: no transcript was available for this quarter; tone observations are drawn from the press release and segment-level forward guidance, which is itself the most notable shift.

Management introduced segment-level forward guidance for the first time — a transparency upgrade that lands the same quarter as raw materials rolling over. Prior quarters gave forward direction consolidated ("higher earnings") plus qualitative color per segment. This quarter, each of the three segments carries an explicit forward earnings direction, including an unambiguous negative call on raw materials: "The raw materials segment is expected to have decreased earnings due to lower margins." That management chose to introduce granular segment guidance in the quarter when one segment is turning down suggests confidence that the aggregate story is strong enough to absorb transparency about the weak leg — steel mills pricing lift and steel products' volume+price combination are being framed as more than sufficient offset.

"Higher realized pricing across all major product categories" is now a two-quarter pattern, not a one-quarter recovery. Q4 2025 guided Q1 to "higher realized prices across all major product categories"; Q1 delivered ($1,074 ASP, +$55 QoQ). Q2 now delivers again ($1,145 ASP, +$71 QoQ) AND Q3 is guided to a third consecutive quarter of the same language. The lag-effect thesis that broke in Q3 2025 has now re-asserted on the upside for three consecutive quarters of guidance, which is the strongest validation of the contract-lag mechanism management has produced in the covered period.

The "second consecutive quarterly record for Nucor steel mill shipments" framing signals structural rather than cyclical strength. The record-shipments language, combined with 91% utilization and stable-volume forward guidance, suggests Nucor is capacity-constrained on mills — not demand-constrained. That is a materially different posture from Q3 2025's demand bifurcation narrative and Q4 2025's "slightly up" 2026 demand framing. The company has moved from arguing demand is stable to demonstrating that it can shift volumes at the top of its capacity band.

Trade policy is now framed as investment-cycle backdrop, not defensive necessity. The press release cited "investment across key sectors of the U.S. economy, combined with supportive federal trade policies" as the demand driver — a passive, ambient framing. Compare to Q3 2025's escalatory "tariffs must stay in place with no exceptions or loopholes" and Q1 FY2026's quantified 22%→15% import share collapse. The rhetoric has cooled because the policy is holding.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q2 steel mills ASP sustains above $1,074/ton or rolls over. Steel mills external ASP rose to $1,145/ton (+$71 QoQ, +6.6%) — a decisive sustain-and-extend result. Combined with record 7.1M-ton shipments and 91% utilization, the lift is both price AND volume, exactly as Q1 guided. Q3 is now guided to a further pricing increase with stable volumes, extending the recovery arc into a third consecutive quarter.
Resolved positively
Whether scrap input cost compression continues or worsens. Scrap rose $18/ton QoQ to $422 (from $404 in Q1) — the second consecutive quarterly increase. However, the +$71 QoQ ASP gain more than offset the scrap headwind, so the ASP-scrap spread widened materially in Nucor's favor. Q3's raw materials segment guide (earnings decline on lower margins) suggests input cost pressure persists, but the mill margin story is intact. Status: Resolved positively (spread widening)
Q1 free cash flow translation into Q2 buybacks. Nucor repurchased ~1.53M shares at $228.76 avg in Q2, returning ~$479M to stockholders (repurchases + dividends) in the quarter and ~$733M in H1 2026. Six-month operating cash flow of $2.29B comfortably covered the $1.23B in H1 CapEx and the $733M in capital return. Buyback cadence is running steady but not accelerating relative to the earnings step. Status: Resolved
West Virginia pre-operating cost ramp. H1 pre-operating and start-up costs of $228M (vs. $306M year-ago) are actually down YoY, and Q2's $120M was up modestly from Q1's $108M. The $1.16B net income and $2.02B EBITDA prints demonstrate that pre-op costs are not compressing headline earnings materially. Status: Partially resolved
Whether the "more than 5%" shipment guide gets quantified further. H1 steel mill shipments were 14,146k tons (+9% YoY) — tracking meaningfully above the 5% FY guide. Management did not issue a formal FY guide raise on the print, and no explicit FY EBITDA framework was introduced. The consolidated Q3 "higher" guide implies H2 momentum, but the FY quantification the watch list flagged has not landed.
Not resolved
USMCA terms pre- and post-July renegotiation. The press release attributes demand strength to "supportive federal trade policies" without specific USMCA commentary. The 15% import share floor from Q1 appears to be holding based on the pricing outcomes, but absent transcript Q&A, transshipment enforcement details are not visible.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Magnitude of raw materials segment margin compression. Q3 is the first negative segment guide in three quarters. If Q3 raw materials EBT drops materially below Q2's $146M contribution and the drag exceeds steel mills' pricing lift, the consolidated "higher earnings" guide could be at risk. Watch specifically for scrap-to-DRI spread and pig iron sourcing commentary.

Underlying steel mills EBT run-rate ex the $130M refund. With ~$130M of the Q2 segment step being non-recurring, the Q3 pricing-driven "increase" needs to clear the ~$1,426M underlying baseline to demonstrate genuine forward momentum rather than a mechanical decline from the Q2 optical high.

Whether Q3 steel mills ASP sustains above $1,145/ton or begins to plateau. Two quarters of $50-70/ton QoQ ASP gains is a strong run; a Q3 ASP that comes in flat or up only modestly despite the "higher pricing" guide would signal the recovery is nearing its ceiling and the +23% YoY revenue pace is unlikely to sustain into FY 2027.

Formal FY 2026 shipment and EBITDA guide raise on Q3. H1 shipment growth is running well above +5% (record volumes both quarters). If the Q3 print does not upgrade the FY shipment guide beyond "more than 5%" or introduce an explicit EBITDA framework, it will signal management is holding capacity for reservation-of-optionality reasons — potentially M&A or macro hedging.

First "Expand Beyond" M&A announcement. Four consecutive quarters of framework discussion without a deal. With EBITDA compounding and cash generation strong ($2.29B H1 operating cash flow, $2.69B cash + short-term investments on balance sheet), the absence of a transaction becomes a growing capital allocation question.

West Virginia commissioning milestones and pre-op cost trajectory. Q3 should provide the first substantive read on the year-end 2026 completion timeline and the 2027 ramp shape. Any slippage in the commissioning sequence (pickle line → cold mill → galv lines → melt shop → pot mill) resets the 2027 revenue contribution.

H2 buyback cadence relative to H1's $733M. With H1 capital return of $733M against $2.29B operating cash flow (~32% payout), the Q3 pace will indicate whether management is accelerating buybacks against the earnings step or preserving dry powder for M&A / West Virginia funding.

Sources

  1. Nucor Q2 2026 press release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed July 27, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526318190/d468854dex991.htm

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