tapebrief
PLTR · Q1 2026

PLTR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Palantir

Reported August 3, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 93% YoY to $1.935B in Q2, beating consensus of $1.81B by 6.9% and crushing the prior $1.797–$1.801B guide by ~$134M — an eight-point acceleration from Q1's 85%. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764M and adjusted operating margin hit 62%, driving the Rule of 40 to 155%. Management raised the FY26 revenue guide by $500M to $8.15–$8.158B (~82% YoY, an eleven-point growth-rate lift), pushed U.S. commercial FY26 to ≥$3.424B at ≥134%, and re-framed the demand story as an "AI sovereignty revolution" — the fifth consecutive quarter where the acceleration debate closes decisively before it can reopen.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.41

+17.1% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.94B

+93.0% YoY

+6.9% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

84.7%

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$1.22B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

47.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$1.94B$1.00B+92.7%$1.63B+18.5%
EPS$0.41$0.16+156.2%$0.33+24.2%
Gross margin84.7%80.8%+390bps86.8%-210bps
Operating margin47.1%26.8%+2030bps46.2%+90bps
Free cash flow$1.22B$0.57B+114.4%——

Guidance

Company raises FY2026 revenue guidance by $500M to $8.15–8.158B (82% YoY growth), U.S. commercial revenue by $200M to $3.424B+ (134%+ growth), and adjusted operating income by $450M to $4.889–4.897B, driven by Q2 beat (revenue +7.4% vs. guide) and accelerating AI sovereignty demand; Q3 FY2026 revenue guided $2.16–2.164B (+83–84% YoY).

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ2 FY2026$1.797 – $1.801 billion$1.935 billion+$0.134 billion above high end of guide (+7.4%)Beat
Adjusted Income from OperationsQ2 FY2026$1.063 – $1.067 billion$1.105 billion+$0.038 billion above high end of guide (+3.6%)Beat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
RevenueQ3 FY2026$2.160 – $2.164 billion+83–84% YoY
Adjusted Income from OperationsQ3 FY2026$1.292 – $1.296 billion—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
U.S. Commercial Revenue
FY2026
in excess of $3.224 billion, representing growth of at least 120%in excess of $3.424 billion, representing growth of at least 134%+$0.2B (+6.2%) and +14 percentage points YoY growthRaised
Adjusted Income from Operations
FY2026
$4.440 – $4.452 billion$4.889 – $4.897 billion+$0.437–0.445B (+9.8–10.0%)Raised
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
FY2026
$4.2 – $4.4 billion$4.5 – $4.7 billion+$0.3–0.1B (midpoint +$0.2B, +4.8%)Raised
Revenue
FY2026
$7.650 – $7.662 billion$8.150 – $8.158 billion+$0.488–0.496B (+6.4%)Raised
Rule of 40 Score
FY2026
129%155%+26 percentage pointsRaised

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
U.S. Commercial Revenue$0.764B$0.306B+149.7%
U.S. Government Revenue$0.809B$0.426B+89.9%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Total Contract Value (TCV)$3.373 billion$2.27 billion—
U.S. Commercial TCV$2.132 billion$843 million—
U.S. Commercial Remaining Deal Value (RDV)$6.238 billion$2.79 billion—
Deals >$1M220——
Deals >$5M98——
Deals >$10M73——

Profitability

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Adjusted Operating Margin62%46%—
Rule of 40 Score155%94%—

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
U.S. Revenue$1.573B$0.733B+114.6%

Management tone

Q2 25 combative-triumphalist → Q3 25 systemic-claim → Q4 25 categorical separation (N-of-1) → Q1 26 ideological maximalism ("tokens are the new coal") → Q2 26 AI sovereignty revolution. The arc this quarter shifts the demand narrative from a product-differentiation claim ("only AIP can govern the token flood") to a geopolitical-inevitability claim ("nation-states and enterprises must have sovereign AI, and we are the platform for it").

Note: no transcript was available for this quarter; the tone analysis below is anchored to the press-release qualitative statements and framed against prior-quarter transcript-based observations.

Three quarters ago the growth driver was reframed from AI adoption to AI governance; last quarter as Jevons-paradox demand pull; this quarter management named it "AI sovereignty" and declared the demand "unleashed." From the press release: "Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed" and "Sovereign AI revolution makes us very optimistic about the future." The shift matters because sovereignty framing implicitly includes non-U.S. jurisdictions Karp explicitly wrote off two quarters ago ("Palantir lacks bandwidth for difficult non-U.S. implementations"). If the sovereignty framing extends internationally in Q3, the TAM debate that has been anchored to U.S.-only reopens.

The Rule of 40 anchor moved from "aspirational ceiling" to "sustained operating model." In Q4 25 the 127 Rule of 40 print was framed as proof of category exit; in Q1 26 the 145 was the peak against a 129 FY guide; this quarter the FY guide itself was raised to 155 — matching the Q2 print. Management is no longer treating the score as an occasional spike above a moderating trajectory; they are guiding to it as the run-rate. That commitment removes the fallback narrative if either growth or margin slips in 2H.

GAAP profitability language hardened from milestone to promise. From the press release qualitative statements: "We continue to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year." This was implied in Q4 25 and Q1 26 but not explicitly stated as a full-year commitment. Locking to GAAP quarterly profitability for FY26 forecloses the classic hypergrowth-software escape hatch of "we chose to reinvest" — every quarter now has to produce both acceleration and GAAP income, which is a materially higher bar than the adjusted-operating-margin commitment in prior quarters.

The U.S. commercial segment framing has now inverted the company's identity. For most of Palantir's public life the reference identity was "defense contractor with a commercial side." U.S. commercial revenue this quarter ($764M) is now within striking distance of U.S. government ($809M) and, at 149% growth vs. government's 90%, will cross it inside two quarters. The FY26 guide raise to ≥$3.424B for U.S. commercial confirms management is positioning FY26 as the year the identity flips — a repositioning that resets the peer set from Booz/LDOS to a category with no obvious comp.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q2 FY26 revenue lands above the $1.801B high end. Decisively yes — $1.935B beat the high end by $134M, well above the $90M threshold flagged as the "guide finally compressing" signal. YoY growth accelerated to 93% versus Q1's 85%; the guide is not compressing toward reality, it is still visibly trailing it.
Resolved positively
U.S. commercial RDV trajectory. RDV grew from $4.92B (Q1) to $6.238B (Q2) — a $1.3B sequential add against $764M of revenue, and +27% QoQ vs. Q1's +12%. The bookings flywheel didn't sustain the Q1 pattern; it re-accelerated. FY26 ≥134% is now backlog-supported, not projection-based.
Resolved positively
Whether adjusted operating margin holds above 55%. Adjusted operating margin printed at 62% — 700bps above the 55% floor and 200bps above the Q1 print. The 2026 hiring ramp Karp has repeatedly flagged still has not compressed margins; the FY26 Rule of 40 guide raise to 155% is management's explicit commitment that it won't in 2H either.
Resolved positively
U.S. government growth sustaining above 70% YoY. Yes, and it accelerated — Q2 printed 90% versus Q1's 84%, blowing past the 70% threshold that would have signaled budget-cycle-only demand. The "Department of War pulling 26 forward" dynamic has evolved into a sustained tier change, not a one-quarter pull-forward.
Resolved positively
Rule of 40 score trajectory vs. the 129% FY guide. Q2 printed 155%, up from Q1's 145%. Rather than moderate toward the FY guide, the score expanded — and management raised the FY guide itself to 155%. Q1 was not the peak.
Resolved positively
Any program-level dollar disclosure on Maven, SHIP OS, or AIFD. No discrete program-level contract-value figures were disclosed on the print. Government growth at 90% is attributed qualitatively to the same program stack. This is now three consecutive quarters where management has declined to convert qualitative momentum into a quantified defense-vertical anchor.
Continue monitoring
Whether the "tokens are the new coal" framing gets traction with skeptics. Management did not defend or amplify the Q1 Jevons-paradox framing this quarter; instead they replaced it with "AI sovereignty revolution" as the new structural driver. The rhetorical layer moves faster than the fundamentals — investors should treat the specific framings as marketing overlay on a growth story that is delivering regardless.
Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 FY26 revenue lands above the $2.164B high end. The Q3 guide implies 83–84% YoY on the $1.18B Q3 25 base — a deceleration from Q2's 93%. Given Q2 beat the high end by $134M, a beat below $130M will be the first genuine signal the guide is compressing toward reality; anything above will mean the guide is still trailing the print for a sixth consecutive quarter.

Whether U.S. commercial crosses U.S. government in absolute dollars. U.S. commercial at $764M and U.S. government at $809M is a $45M gap; U.S. commercial is growing 149% vs. government's 90%. If commercial exceeds government revenue in Q3, the company identity flip is complete and the peer-set debate resets in real time.

U.S. commercial RDV sequential add. Q2's $1.3B RDV add against $764M of revenue is a 1.7x book-to-bill on the segment. If Q3 RDV grows by less than $1B sequentially, the FY26 ≥134% guide starts to rely on net-new closes rather than backlog conversion — and the visibility premium in the multiple compresses.

Whether GAAP operating margin holds above 45%. Q2 printed 47.1% GAAP, above Q1's 46.2%. Management has now committed publicly to GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of FY26; a print below 45% in Q3 would be the first crack in that commitment and worth more than the equivalent adjusted-margin slip.

Any program-level dollar disclosure on Maven, SHIP OS, or AIFD. Third consecutive quarter this remains unquantified. Government growth accelerating to 90% raises the stakes: a single contract-value print in Q3 would convert the segment from "policy-driven acceleration" to "vertical-anchored acceleration" and materially reset the defense TAM debate.

Whether the "AI sovereignty" framing extends internationally. The framing implicitly opens non-U.S. jurisdictions Karp wrote off in Q4 25. Watch the Q3 print for any international commercial re-acceleration or explicit sovereign-nation contract disclosure — either would fundamentally change the TAM story that has anchored to U.S.-only for six quarters.

Rule of 40 sustainment at 155%. The FY26 guide now equals the Q2 print. Any Q3 print below 150 will be the first indication management guided too aggressively; a print above 155 confirms the FY guide is still conservative.

Sources

  1. Palantir Q2 FY2026 press release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm
  2. Consensus estimates via Tradefeeds (as of 2026-08-03)

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