SPGI · Q3 2024 Earnings

Bullish

S&P Global

Reported October 30, 2025

30-second summary

Revenue grew 9% YoY to $3.89B with adjusted operating margin at 52.1% and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.73. Management raised the FY2025 adjusted EPS range by $0.60 at the midpoint to $17.60–$17.85, lifted the revenue growth guide 200bps at the low end to 7–8%, and raised the adjusted operating margin range to 50.0–50.5% (from 48.5–49.5%). Ratings reaccelerated to +12% YoY (vs. +1% in Q2), answering last quarter's biggest watch item decisively to the upside.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2024

$4.73

Revenue

Q3 FY2024

$3.89B

+9.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q3 FY2024

43.1%

Key financials

Q3 FY2024

Metric	Q3 FY2024	YoY	Q2 FY2024	QoQ
Revenue	$3.89B	+9.0%	$3.75B	+3.5%
EPS	$4.73	—	$4.43	+6.8%
Operating margin	43.1%	—	41.3%	+180bps

Guidance

S&P Global raised full-year EPS guidance by $0.35-$0.60 per share and revenue growth by 200 basis points on operational momentum, while reaffirming free cash flow and withdrawing adjusted operating margin guidance.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$17.00 - $17.25	$17.60 - $17.85	+$0.60 at midpoint (+1.8%)	Raised
Revenue Growth	FY 2025	5% - 7%	7% - 8%	+2.0 percentage points at midpoint (from 6% to 7.5%)	Raised
GAAP Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$14.35 - $14.60	$14.80 - $15.05	+$0.45 at midpoint (+1.5%)	Raised
Adjusted Operating Margin	FY 2025	48.5% - 49.5%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($5.6 - $5.8 billion)

Segment performance

Q3 FY2024

Segment	Q3 FY2024	YoY
Market Intelligence	$1.236B	+6.0%
Ratings	$1.24B	+12.0%
Commodity Insights	$0.556B	+6.0%
Mobility	$0.445B	+8.0%
Indices	$0.462B	+11.0%

Capital & returns

Q3 FY2024

Segment	Q3 FY2024
Share Repurchases (Q3 + Expected Q4)	$1.5B returned, $2.5B additional expected
Quarterly Dividend Per Share	$0.96

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2024

Segment	Q3 FY2024
Adjusted Operating Margin	52.1%
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$4.73
Subscription Revenue Growth	6%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FY 2025E)	$5.6B - $5.8B

Management tone

This is a press-release-only brief; no Q3 2025 transcript was available, so tone analysis is limited to disclosure choices rather than verbatim commentary.

Ratings narrative flipped from cyclical caution to operating leverage realised. Last quarter management framed Ratings at +1% as the cleanest cyclical read with transaction revenue down 4%. This quarter Ratings printed +12% and drove the bulk of the consolidated revenue raise. The press release attributes the FY guide raise to strength across multiple divisions — Ratings now leads rather than drags.

Margin guide raised rather than withdrawn. Q2 FY2025 committed to a 48.5–49.5% FY adjusted operating margin range; Q3 raises that band to 50.0–50.5%. Q3 actual at 52.1% sits 160bps+ above the top of the new range, leaving room for H2 reinvestment without compromising the FY anchor.

Capital return cadence accelerated. Q2 framed "up to $1.3B" incremental ASR; Q3 explicitly discloses $1.5B returned in Q3 with an additional $2.5B expected in Q4 — a $4B H2 run rate against the $5.6–5.8B FY adjusted FCF guide. That is consistent with the ~85% capital return ratio committed in Q2 but at the high end of execution pace.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

exceptional debt market issuance strength driving ratings revenue accelerationsmaller customer cancellations in market intelligence as specific headwind offsetting broader growthgenerative AI embedded in customer-facing products and internal processes with measurable tractionstrategic investments in private markets, sustainability, enterprise data, and benchmarks being reinforcedmargin expansion despite elevated incentive compensation due to revenue upside captureleadership transition and organizational restructuring to drive next phase of growth

Risks management surfaced:

financial services customers facing elongated sales cycles, price sensitivity, and vendor consolidationsmaller customer cancellations in market intelligence business likely to persist through Q4ratings business remains difficult to predict in near term as market-driven business subject to issuance volatilitypotential for rate cut variance to impact business in future periods beyond 2024European regulations regarding 5% ownership thresholds creating potential investor impact

Q&A highlights

Ashish Subhadra · RBC Capital Markets

Asked about Market Intelligence segment execution challenges, new leadership, and opportunities for further portfolio rationalization.

Management acknowledged cyclical headwinds (cancellations in smaller customers, pricing pressure, longer sales cycles) driven by end-market conditions. Emphasized continued innovation in MI products and customer engagement. Noted two divestitures announced this year as part of ongoing disciplined portfolio optimization, with more expected in the future.

Two divestitures announced in current yearCancellations increasing in smaller customer basePricing pressure and longer sales cycles evident23 new products launched for MI this year

Faiza Alwi · Deutsche Bank

Asked about ratings business pull-forward from future years, 2025 outlook, and achievability of 6-9% long-term growth target from investor day 2022.

Management noted three consecutive guidance raises for ratings. Explained pull-forward into 2024 is not materially different from prior years despite higher issuance. Highlighted healthy 2-2.8 trillion maturity wall annually over next five years. Cautioned on precision of refinancing timing, cited spreads and GDP growth as key drivers, and reaffirmed enterprise is on track for 6-9% target (23-2026 multi-year target).

Three consecutive ratings guidance raises in current year2-2.8 trillion annual maturity wall projected over next five years6-9% growth target (2023-2026) remains on track for enterpriseGDP growth identified as biggest issuance correlation

Tony Kaplan · Morgan Stanley

Asked about biggest areas for investment opportunity, particularly AI, identified by new leadership team.

New CEO Martina highlighted five secular trends from 2022 investor day presentation as foundation. Stated recent customer meetings validated the existing strategy while identifying incremental growth opportunities within those five trends. Emphasized leadership team's excitement about execution opportunities.

Five secular trends form investment thesis (referenced from 2022 investor day)Customer meetings reaffirmed strategy validityIncremental growth opportunities identified within existing five trendsAI implicitly included in broader investment framework

David Modumadum · Evercore

Asked about competitive pricing dynamics in Market Intelligence and incremental investments needed to achieve 79% revenue growth target.

Management distinguished between pricing competition and price sensitivity, attributing pressure to residual expense management from prior cycles (investment bank pullbacks, inflation, rate spikes). Cited vendor consolidation as historically beneficial. Noted end-market headwinds rather than competitive loss. Did not detail incremental investment requirements for 79% growth target.

Price sensitivity rather than pricing competition is primary driverVendor consolidation occurring and historically beneficialEnd-market cyclicality cited, not structural competitive loss23 new MI products launched showing continued innovation

Alex Cram · UBS

Asked about Commodity Insights outlook, cyclical versus secular drivers, and sustainability of current performance above investor day targets.

Management expressed confidence in Commodity Insights performance and diversification across oil/gas, power, and other commodities. Highlighted strong performance in newer areas including energy transition products. Noted rapid growth in clean energy tech and other transition-focused offerings (voluntary carbon markets, low carbon assessments). Characterized opportunity as having both cyclical and secular tailwinds.

Diversification across multiple commodity segments reduces cyclicalityRapid growth in energy transition productsClean energy tech product recently launched and well-receivedNew investment areas include voluntary carbon markets and low carbon assessments

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Ratings revenue trajectory in Q3 and Q4 FY2025 — Decisively resolved to the upside. Ratings printed +12% YoY in Q3, up from +1% in Q2. Q2 was the trough, not a leading indicator of further weakness.

Resolved positively

OSTTRA divestiture closing in H2 FY2025 — Confirmed closed October 10, 2025 per the press release.

Resolved positively

Adjusted operating margin path back toward the 48.5–49.5% FY2025 range — Resolved positively — guide raised to 50.0–50.5% from 48.5–49.5%. Q3 ran at 52.1%, well above the new top end.

Resolved positively

Indices growth durability above +10% — Held the line at +11% YoY, down from +15% in Q2 but still double-digit.

Resolved positively

Mobility separation execution — Press release notes the previously announced spin of Mobility into a separate public company "remains on track" but provides no new timing or financial framework specifics. Mobility revenue grew +8%, decelerating from +10%.

Continue monitoring

Incremental capital return cadence — Confirmed accelerating. $1.5B Q3 + $2.5B expected Q4 = $4.0B H2 against $5.6–5.8B FY adjusted FCF guide, consistent with ~85% FY capital return ratio.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the raised 50.0–50.5% adjusted operating margin band holds or is exceeded. Q3 print of 52.1% leaves substantial cushion; watch whether Q4 sustains the over-delivery or H2 reinvestment compresses margin back toward the new guide.

Ratings revenue YoY in Q4. Q3 at +12% confirms Q2 was the trough; watch whether Q4 sustains double-digit growth or settles back into mid-single-digits as issuance comps stiffen. A pull-forward concern intensifies if Q4 prints flat-to-down.

Market Intelligence inflection. Mid-single-digit growth persists with explicit smaller-customer cancellation drag. Watch whether MI prints above +7% in Q4 or whether retention rate disclosure shows stabilisation — either would invalidate the structural headwind read. The pending With Intelligence acquisition is flagged as a private-markets growth lever.

Free cash flow conversion against the reaffirmed $5.6–5.8B FY guide. EPS and revenue raised; FCF unchanged. Either Q4 FCF runs light versus implied (signalling working-capital build) or the FY FCF guide is conservative and gets beaten — watch which.

Q4 capital return execution against the $2.5B expected. Slippage would signal either deteriorating FCF visibility or M&A optionality being preserved.

Investor Day disclosure. Press release explicitly references Q4 repurchases following Investor Day; watch for multi-year framework refresh and any reset of medium-term segment growth targets.

Sources

S&P Global Q3 2025 earnings press release (SEC filing) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404025000163/spgi3q2025-earningsrelease.htm
S&P Global Q2 2025 earnings press release (prior-quarter baseline) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404025000143/spgi2q2025-earningsrelease.htm

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