tapebrief
SPGI · Q3 2024

SPGI · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

S&P Global

Reported February 10, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 9% YoY to $3.92B in Q4 with adjusted diluted EPS of $4.30, and FY2025 closed at $15.34B (+8%) and $17.83 adjusted EPS — landing near the midpoint of the raised guide. FY2026 guidance is the story: adjusted EPS of $19.40–$19.65 implies a +10.2% midpoint raise off the FY2025 guide range, but organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6–8% sits below FY2025's 8% actual and operating margin expansion is guided to only 10–35bps. Management is signalling margin-and-EPS confidence underwritten by subscription momentum while taking a deliberately prudent view on Ratings and market-driven Market Intelligence revenue.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$4.30

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$3.92B

+9.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

42.7%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2024QoQ
Revenue$3.92B+9.0%$3.89B+0.7%
EPS$4.30—$4.73-9.1%
Operating margin42.7%—43.1%-40bps

Guidance

Strong EPS guidance raise for FY2026 (+10.2% midpoint to $19.40-$19.65) despite modestly slowing revenue growth outlook (6-8% organic constant currency vs. 8% FY2025 actual), signaling margin expansion and operational leverage confidence.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Revenue (Reported GAAP)FY 20257% - 8%8%+0pts at top of guideBeat
EPS (non-GAAP)FY 2025$17.60 - $17.85$17.83within guide, near midpointBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Organic Constant Currency Revenue GrowthFY 20266.0% to 8.0%—
Operating Profit Margin ExpansionFY 202610 to 35 bps—
Interest Expense, netFY 2026$395 to $405 million—
Tax RateFY 202622.0% to 23.0%—
Capital Expenditures (GAAP)FY 2026$215 to $225 million—
Adjusted Free Cash Flow GrowthFY 2026mid-single digits year over year—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
EPS (non-GAAP)
FY 2026
$17.60 - $17.85$19.40 - $19.65+$1.80 - $1.80 (midpoint +$1.80, +10.2%)Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Ratings$1.187B+12.0%
Indices$0.498B+14.0%
Market Intelligence$1.264B+7.0%
Energy$0.576B+6.0%
Mobility$0.444B+8.0%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Shareholder Returns (2025)$6.2B
Dividend per Share - Quarterly$0.97

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Subscription Revenue Growth8%
Adjusted Operating Margin47.3%
Billed Issuance Growth+28%
Asset-Linked Fees Growth+13%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow - 2025$5.5B
Currency Impact on Adjusted Diluted EPS+$0.04

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover → Ratings cyclical reset → Ratings reacceleration → Subscription-led offensive posture into 2026

Across four quarters management has progressively shifted the source of confidence. In Q2, Ratings at +1% framed the story as a cyclical reset with Indices and Mobility carrying the load. In Q3, the +12% Ratings print and a 150bps margin guide raise put cyclical recovery at the centre. This quarter, with Ratings still at +12% but the FY2026 organic growth guide stepping down to 6–8%, the confidence anchor has explicitly moved to subscription momentum. Management's framing: "Our confidence in that outlook is bolstered by strong performance indicators for our subscription businesses." This is a deliberate de-emphasis of cyclical Ratings as a growth driver into 2026 even as it remains the highest-growth segment today.

The energy transition narrative has been quietly downgraded. Q2 and Q3 press releases framed Commodity Insights as a structural growth engine; this quarter management explicitly states "our outlook for 2026 does not depend on a meaningful recovery in the near term" on the energy transition initiative. That is the cleanest tone reset of the call — a multi-quarter growth pillar reframed as upside optionality rather than base-case contributor.

M&A and integration discourse has shifted from "transformative deal benefits" (With Intelligence framed in Q3 as the private-markets growth lever) to operational integration speed as the proof point. The disclosure that integration "shortened the close process to less than six weeks" and generated "more than 200 new sales leads and cross-sell opportunities within the first 60 days" reframes M&A from a strategic narrative to an execution metric. This signals management wants the market to underwrite organic execution capability rather than deal flow into 2026.

AI commentary moved from defence to offence. In Q&A, management quantified $1B of cumulative AI investment since Kensho (2018), $10M+ annual savings in research, and an estimated 20% cost reduction in the Enterprise Data Office over two years against a ~$500M base. The statement "What they need most is what we uniquely provide" anchors the disintermediation defence on data moat plus workflow embeddedness rather than feature parity. This is the most assertive AI framing across the four quarters.

Hedging language on the macro is more concentrated and more specific. Q2 used broad cyclical language; Q4 hedges are tactical: "a prudent approach to our outlook for the market-driven components," "we would expect to refine our issuance forecast as we progress through the year," and explicit haircuts on hyperscale CapEx materialisation and debt-funding assumptions. Conservatism is now structured into specific segments rather than blanketing the outlook.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Subscription business momentum as bedrock of confidenceEnterprise capabilities (Chief Client Office, Enterprise Data Office) as value multipliersStrategic adjacencies (private markets, energy expansion, decentralized finance) driving incremental growthAI investments across products and internal productivityDisciplined margin expansion while funding growth investmentsDiversification protecting against cyclical headwinds

Risks management surfaced:

Macroeconomic distress, elevated market volatility or uncertainty, or slowdown in economic growthBank loan volume softness continuing into 2026Unpredictability of M&A and infrastructure issuanceGeopolitical dynamics and sanctions impactsVolume-driven product unpredictability in market intelligence

Q&A highlights

Ashish Subhadra · RBC Capital Markets

Requested color on softness in volume-driven products within Market Intelligence and unpredictability expectations for 2026.

Management detailed that volume-driven revenue (15% of MI) varies quarterly based on external market factors. Q4 was lighter due to lower bank loan syndications, lighter investment-grade issuances, and reduced loan trading. Subscription revenue (85% of MI) grew 6.6%. For 2026, MI guidance is 5.5%-7% with subscription at top half and volume cautiously guided at lower end, expecting bounce-back but uncertain timing.

Subscription revenue in MI is 85% of total, grew 6.6% in Q4Volume-driven revenue comprises ~15% of MIMI 2026 guidance: 5.5%-7%ACV growth in MI: 6.5%-7% in Q4, up from 6%-6.5% in H1

George Tong · Goldman Sachs

Asked how Anthropic's 11 open-source plug-ins announcement would impact S&P Global's business competitively.

Management framed AI ecosystem developments as tailwinds rather than threats. Highlighted existing partnerships with major AI players (Anthropic, Google Gemini, OpenAI), positioning S&P as leading financial data provider through Cloud for Financial Services. Emphasized that customers prefer embedded AI in S&P platforms over building integrations themselves, maintaining commercial control and preventing LLM training on proprietary data. Referenced hundreds of distribution partners including LLMs.

S&P Global is a leading provider of financial data to customers through Cloud for Financial ServicesDecember partnership announced with Google for Gemini Enterprise accessYesterday announced MCP connector for OpenAIHundreds of existing distribution partners model in place

Tony Kaplan · Morgan Stanley

Questioned why ratings guidance is below long-term framework despite tailwinds from refinancing wall, M&A announcements, and AI/infrastructure opportunities.

Management outlined conservative assumptions: assumes majority of 2026 maturity wall refinancing comes to market without pull-forward from 2027-2028; modest M&A growth; difficult hyperscale compare from H2 2025; and haircuts on assumed hyperscale CapEx materialization and debt-funding rates. Acknowledged $650B in announced hyperscale CapEx but applying multiple haircuts on assumed build issuance contribution. Confirmed early-year caution with updates expected throughout year.

Ratings guidance: low to mid-single digits (below long-term framework)$650B in announced hyperscale CapEx globallyMultiple haircuts applied: one on materialization rate, another on debt-funding percentageMaturity wall assumption: majority of 2026 refinancings come to market, limited pull-forward from 2027-2028

Surinder Anderson · Jefferies

Asked management to compare AI technology experience and internal deployment versus Silicon Valley hype, and implications for employee footprint given AI-native competitor models.

Management highlighted $1B cumulative AI investment since Kensho acquisition (2018), with 20% of iLevel customers adopting AI-enabled automated data ingestion within 6 months of launch. Noted robust pipeline for energy research Copilot add-ons. Emphasized customer preference for comprehensive vendors with data over AI-native niche players. Committed to revenue growth outpacing headcount growth, with some areas reaching peak headcount. Internal AI deployment achieving material productivity: $10M+ annual savings in research function; 20% estimated cost reduction in Enterprise Data Office (half-billion-dollar expense base) over two years.

$1B invested in AI capabilities since 2018 Kensho acquisition~20% of iLevel customers adopted automated data ingestion add-on within 6 monthsResearch function savings: $10M+ annually from AI deploymentEnterprise Data Office: estimated 20% cost reduction over two years (~$100M from $500M base)

Scott Wurzel · Wolf Research

Asked to elaborate on investment pull-forward into Q4 in Market Intelligence and provide qualitative color on 2026 MI expense growth given lack of segment-level margin guidance.

Management explained Q4 MI investments were pulled forward in technology, feature functionality, and AI infrastructure—areas already showing quick customer adoption. These are reinvestment of productivity gains to drive top-line growth. On margins, MI has largest surface area for expansion among divisions; guided middle of 50-75 bps range for 2026 but upside possible if volumetric revenue comes in stronger. Noted volatility in volumetric revenues normal; no cancellations or pricing issues underlying softness.

Q4 MI margins: 33.5% observed vs. 34% full-year run rate (absent investments and variable revenue headwinds)80 bps margin impact from Intelligence integration, investment pull-forward, and variable revenue shortfall50 bps impact from lower variable revenues in Q4MI has largest margin expansion surface area across divisions

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the 50.0–50.5% adjusted operating margin band held or was exceeded. Q4 adjusted operating margin came in at 47.3%, weighed down by ~80bps of With Intelligence integration cost, investment pull-forward, and variable revenue shortfall. FY2025 closed at 42.2% on the consolidated adjusted basis used as the FY2026 baseline. Q4 sat materially below the Q3 run rate as management deliberately pulled investment forward.
Resolved negatively
Ratings revenue YoY in Q4. Ratings printed +12% in Q4, matching Q3 and confirming Q2's +1% was decisively the trough. Billed issuance grew +28%. The pull-forward concern flagged last quarter did not materialise.
Resolved positively
Market Intelligence inflection above +7%. MI grew +7% in Q4, with ACV acceleration to 6.5–7% and explicit signs that smaller-customer cancellation drag is easing. The structural headwind read is meaningfully weaker after this print.
Resolved positively
Free cash flow conversion against the $5.6–5.8B FY guide. Adjusted FCF came in at $5.5B for FY2025, below the bottom of the reaffirmed range. Combined with FY2026 FCF guidance of only "mid-single digits" growth against EPS up 10%+, this is the cleanest negative signal in the quarter.
Resolved negatively
Q4 capital return execution against the $2.5B expected. FY2025 total shareholder returns of $6.2B exceeded the ~85% of adjusted FCF commitment; the dividend was raised to $0.97 quarterly. Q4 cadence held.
Resolved positively
Investor Day disclosure / multi-year framework refresh. FY2026 guidance now embeds 6–8% organic growth and 10–35bps margin expansion — a step-down vs FY2025 framing on revenue and a noticeably narrower margin expansion band. No new explicit multi-year framework was disclosed in the press release.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether FY2026 organic constant-currency revenue growth tracks the upper or lower half of the 6–8% range in Q1. A first-quarter print at or above 7.5% organic would invalidate the conservatism read; a print at or below 6.5% confirms the structural deceleration.

Adjusted FCF conversion in H1 FY2026. "Mid-single digits" growth against $5.5B implies roughly $5.7–5.8B for FY2026 — well below the implied conversion that 10% EPS growth would suggest. Watch H1 FCF for evidence of working-capital build, elevated cash taxes, or CapEx ramp ($215–225M guide vs prior trend).

Ratings revenue trajectory against the "low-to-mid-single digits" 2026 guide. Management has stacked conservative assumptions on hyperscale ($650B announced CapEx materially haircut), the maturity wall (limited 2027–2028 pull-forward), and M&A. A Q1 Ratings print above +6% would force a positive guide revision; flat-to-low single digits would validate the embedded conservatism.

Market Intelligence margin expansion above the middle of the 50–75bps divisional range. MI is the "largest surface area" for expansion per management; the variable revenue overhang is the swing factor. Track whether MI ACV growth holds above 6.5% and whether volume revenue normalises off the Q4 trough.

Energy / Commodity Insights — does management revisit the "energy transition not critical to 2026" framing? Any positive revision here would be a clean upside surprise given how aggressively expectations have been reset.

Mobility separation timeline. Still flagged as "on track" with no financial framework; watch Q1 for any disclosure on standalone economics or timing milestones.

Sources

  1. S&P Global Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings press release (SEC filing) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000007/a4q2025earningsrelease.htm
  2. S&P Global Q3 2025 earnings press release (prior-quarter baseline) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404025000163/spgi3q2025-earningsrelease.htm
  3. S&P Global Q4 2025 earnings call transcript / management Q&A commentary (call participation by RBC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Wolf Research)

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