UAL · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

United Airlines Holdings

Reported July 15, 2026

30-second summary

Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.99 came in at the top of the $1.00–$2.00 guide — beating consensus $1.84 by 8.2% and effectively doubling the low end — on revenue of $17.67B (+16% YoY, +0.6% vs. $17.57B consensus). Management raised the FY2026 non-GAAP EPS floor from $7 to $9 (midpoint +$1 to $10), lifted the Q3 fuel pass-through guide from 70–80% to 80–90%, and quantified the FY2026 fuel headwind at nearly $6B for the first time. Capex, FCF, and net-leverage guides that were silently withdrawn last quarter remain absent — but management reinstated an explicit "investment-grade rating in 2026" target, partially reversing Q1's quietest hidden cut.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.99

+8.2% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$17.67B

+16.0% YoY

+0.6% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.32B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

6.2%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$17.67B	+16.0%	$14.61B	+21.0%
EPS	$1.99	—	$1.19	+67.2%
Operating margin	6.2%	—	6.8%	-60bps
Free cash flow	$0.32B	—	$2.90B	-88.9%

Guidance

United raised full-year FY2026 EPS guidance meaningfully to $9–$11 (from $7–$11) on strong Q2 beat, signaling accelerating fuel surcharge recovery despite nearly $6B full-year fuel cost headwind.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
EPS (non-GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	$1.00–$2.00	$1.99	+$0.99 above the top of guidance	Beat
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	Not quantified; RASM guidance: double-digit increase	$17.67B	+0.6% vs $17.57B consensus; +16% YoY	Beat
Fuel cost recovery rate (Q2)	Q2 FY2026	40% to 50%	Implied in results (not separately disclosed)	In-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Fuel cost increase (FY2026)	FY2026	Nearly $6 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2026	$7.00–$11.00 (midpoint $9.00)	$9.00–$11.00 (midpoint $10.00)	$2.00 increase to the low end (from $7 to $9); midpoint raised $1.00	Raised
Fuel cost recovery rate (Q3 FY2026)	Q3 FY2026	70% to 80%	80% to 90%	+10 percentage points at both ends of range	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Fuel cost recovery rate (Q4 FY2026) (100%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Domestic	$9.506B	+20.3%
International	$6.594B	+11.2%
Cargo	$0.527B	+22.6%
Other Operating Revenue	$1.045B	+7.7%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Europe	$3.199B	—	+10.2%
Atlantic	$3.424B	—	+7.9%
Pacific	$1.788B	—	+18.7%
Latin America	$1.382B	—	+10.5%
Total Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (TRASM)	20.25 cents	—	—
Passenger Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (PRASM)	18.45 cents	—	—
Cost Per Available Seat Mile (CASM)	18.99 cents	—	—
CASM-ex (excluding fuel, profit sharing, special charges)	13.12 cents	—	—
Passengers	48.7 million	—	—
Available Seat Miles (ASMs)	87.3 billion	—	—
Starlink Aircraft Equipped	450 mainline and Express aircraft	—	—
Adjusted Pre-tax Margin	4.8%	—	—

Management tone

Q3 25 industry restructuring → Q4 25 competitive offense + IG-by-YE26 pledge → Q1 26 fuel-shock defensive posture + silent withdrawals → Q2 26 selective re-arming.

No transcript was available for this quarter, so tone analysis is anchored to press-release language and the guidance-change pattern.

The framing pivot in the press-release headline — "Despite a Nearly $6 Billion Increase In Anticipated Fuel Costs" — is the tell. Q1 presented fuel as an external event that consumed the FY thesis; Q2 presents it as a headwind United is out-executing. Quantifying the $6B for the first time and pairing it with the EPS floor lift converts fuel from an open-ended risk into a bounded, absorbed cost. That reframing is the most important tone shift on the print.

The fuel pass-through cadence — 40–50% Q2, 70–80% Q3, 85–100% Q4 — was Mike's most quantitative near-term commitment on the Q1 call. This quarter Q3 was raised to 80–90% and Q4 was narrowed to 100%. Two consecutive upward revisions on the pass-through framework validate the pricing-power thesis Scott was hedging on last quarter ("realistically, there probably isn't enough time to make up 100% of the fuel price increase this year"). The Q1 hedge has aged poorly in United's favor.

The investment-grade language returned but the mechanics behind it did not. Q4 FY25 committed to sub-2.0x net leverage with IG metrics by YE26; Q1 silently withdrew that; Q2 reinstates the IG-in-2026 target but without a leverage number, without a capex figure, and without an FCF anchor. Management is signaling confidence in the destination without recommitting to the path. Q2 FCF of $322M against a $2.9B Q1 print suggests the FY FCF math is materially tighter than in FY25 — the absence of a dollar anchor is not accidental.

The 2027 double-digit pre-tax margin target from Q1 was not reiterated in the press release. Q2 adjusted pre-tax margin of 4.8% is well below that trajectory, and without a transcript it is impossible to confirm whether the 2027 date held or slipped again. Absence of reiteration is not the same as deferral but it is not affirmation either.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 FY2026 EPS print vs. the new $1.00–$2.00 guide. $1.99 — top of the range. Beat consensus $1.84 by 8.2% and effectively doubled the guide midpoint. This is precisely the print required to lift the FY floor and stabilize the narrative; the FY guide is now $9–$11 vs. $7–$11 last quarter. Status: Resolved positively

Whether the 40–50% Q2 fuel pass-through actually lands. Not separately disclosed on the print, but the EPS beat to the top of guide combined with the Q3 pass-through being raised to 80–90% (from 70–80%) strongly implies Q2 came in at or above the 40–50% target. The phased-recovery framework held. Status: Resolved positively

Whether capex, FCF, or net-leverage guidance is reinstated. Only partially. The IG-rating-in-2026 target has been reinstated as language, but no capex dollar figure, no FCF dollar anchor, and no explicit net-leverage number appear in the guidance block. Q2 FCF of $322M is a meaningful step-down from Q1's $2.9B and management did not contextualize the FY run-rate. Status: Continue monitoring

Whether CASM-ex continues to expand as capacity gets cut. CASM-ex printed +6.1% YoY in Q2 vs. +5.9% in Q1 — a modest sequential deterioration despite ASM growth of +3.5% (higher than the Q1 capacity level). Cost inflation has not been offset by yield discipline yet, though the RASM benefit (+12.1% TRASM) is running well ahead of the CASM-ex burden. Status: Continue monitoring

Whether the 2027 double-digit pre-tax margin target survives a second quarter of fuel pressure. Not addressed in the available press release. Q2 adjusted pre-tax margin of 4.8% is well below the trajectory needed, but the target was neither reiterated nor deferred in the printed disclosure. Absent transcript commentary, the status of the 2027 target is unresolved. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 fuel pass-through actually delivers the 80–90% now guided. This is the most testable near-term claim — a print at 80% keeps FY intact at the mid-point; a print below 80% forces the FY floor back toward $8 and reopens the Q1 collapse narrative.

Whether Q4 FY2026 EPS is guided when the Q3 print lands, and if so where within the residual $9–$11 FY range it implies. With Q1 at $1.19 and Q2 at $1.99, the H2 FY26 run-rate implied by the midpoint ($10) is $6.82 — a very high bar. Watch whether the Q4 quarterly guide implies the FY midpoint or defends only the floor.

Whether capex, FCF, or leverage dollar figures are reinstated. The IG-in-2026 language is back but without underlying numbers it is a slogan, not a commitment. A Q3 print that reintroduces any of the three would confirm the recovery narrative; continued silence with three months to year-end would signal the IG target is aspirational.

CASM-ex trajectory in H2. +6.1% Q2 on +3.5% ASM growth is a worse cost/capacity mix than Q1's +5.9%/+contracted capacity. Watch whether the Q3/Q4 flat-to-+2% capacity guide from Q1 actually holds and whether CASM-ex moderates below +5%.

Cargo re-acceleration durability. +22.6% in Q2 after three quarters of decline is a sharp reversal that management has not contextualized. If it holds through Q3 it materially improves the non-passenger revenue mix; if it reverses it was a one-quarter comp effect.

Sources

United Airlines Holdings Q2 FY2026 earnings press release (8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000135/ual_erx06302026xex991.htm

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