V · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Visa Inc.

Reported January 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q1 net revenue grew 15% YoY to $10.9B, well above the "high end of low double digits" guide, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.17 and operating margin at 61.8% (non-GAAP 68.9%). Management held the FY26 revenue guide at "low double digits" — assuming weaker volatility through the rest of the year offsets Q1 outperformance — but raised EPS growth within the low-double-digit range and cut both the FY26 tax rate (to 18-18.5% from 18.5-19%) and the non-operating expense range (to $100-125M from $125-175M). The strategic reframe initiated in Q4 has hardened: VAS now drives ~50% of revenue growth at 28% YoY, and agentic commerce moved from "GA later this year" to live production transactions across geographies.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$3.17

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$10.90B

+15.0% YoY

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$6.40B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

61.8%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$10.90B	+15.0%	$10.72B	+1.6%
EPS	$3.17	—	$2.98	+6.4%
Operating margin	61.8%	—	57.4%	+440bps
Free cash flow	$6.40B	—	—	—

Guidance

Q1 FY2026 beat revenue guidance; full-year EPS raised within 'low double digits' range due to

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted net revenue growth	Q1 FY2026	high end of low double digits	15%	+above guide	Beat
Adjusted operating expense growth	Q1 FY2026	low double digits	low double digits	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Long-term tax rate	FY2026	between 19 and 20%	—
Adjusted net revenue growth	Q2 FY2026	low double digits	—
Adjusted operating expense growth	Q2 FY2026	mid-teens	—
Non-operating expense	Q2 FY2026	approximately $30 million	—
Tax rate	Q2 FY2026	around 16.5%	—
Adjusted EPS growth	Q2 FY2026	high end of low double digits	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-operating expense	FY2026	$125 to $175 million	approximately $100 to $125 million	-$25M at high end, -$25M at low end	Lowered
Tax rate	FY2026	18.5% to 19%	between 18 and 18.5%	-50bps at high end, -50bps at low end	Lowered
Adjusted EPS growth	FY2026	low double digits	low double digits, albeit a bit higher in the range than previously guided	raised within 'low double digits' range	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted net revenue growth (low double digits), Adjusted operating expense growth (low double digits)

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
Service Revenue	$4.76B	+13.0%
Data Processing Revenue	$5.544B	+17.0%
International Transaction Revenue	$3.652B	+6.0%
Other Revenue	$1.214B	+33.0%

Capital & returns

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Share Repurchases and Dividends	$5.1 billion

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Payments Volume Growth (YoY)	8%
Cross-Border Volume Growth ex-Intra-Europe (YoY)	11%
Total Cross-Border Volume Growth (YoY)	12%
Processed Transactions	69.4 billion
Processed Transactions Growth (YoY)	9%
Operating Margin	61.8%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	68.9%

Management tone

Q2 FY25 macro caution → Q3 FY25 "build the future of payments" pivot → Q4 FY25 "hyperscaler" platform reframe → Q1 FY26 hyperscaler operationalized with quantified runway across agentic commerce, stablecoins, and tokenization.

Hyperscaler framing moves from architectural pitch to operating model. Last quarter Visa introduced the "hyperscaler" reframe as a strategic identity shift. This quarter the framing is no longer aspirational — it's the operating language: "acting as a payments hyperscaler to enable anyone in the ecosystem to build, launch, and scale money movement and payment businesses across the globe." The shift signals that internal organization, sales motion, and product packaging have been re-architected around enabling ecosystem partners rather than competing with them.

Agentic commerce: from "GA later this year" to live in production across geographies. Q3 FY25 committed to "general availability later this year." Q4 FY25 confirmed live transactions and the Trusted Agent Protocol. This quarter operational specificity arrives: "Over 30 partners are actively building in our sandbox with multiple agents and agent enablers running live production transactions… Our agentic solutions are live in the U.S. and Samia, and we are initiating pilot programs in Asia Pacific and Europe." Visa has cleared the "is this real" bar; the next test is monetization velocity.

Stablecoins: from $2.5B card-spend run rate to $4.6B settlement run rate with a global advisory practice. Q3 FY25 framed stablecoins as corridor experiments. Q4 disclosed a $2.5B annualized monthly run rate on stablecoin-linked card volume. This quarter Visa quantified a different metric — "total stablecoin settlement has reached an annualized run rate of $4.6 billion globally" — and launched a global stablecoins advisory practice. The expansion from card-linked spend to settlement infrastructure plus paid advisory is the clearest evidence yet that stablecoins are a multi-product line, not a pilot.

Tokenization: from "16B tokens, pursuit of 100%" to "17.5B tokens, 3x physical cards, guest checkout cut from 44% to 16%." The Q4 tokenization mandate is now anchored to concrete behavioral data: "We have more than 17.5 billion tokens globally, over three times the number of physical cards… We have reduced [guest checkout] from 44% of all Visa e-commerce transactions in 2019 to about 16% in fiscal 2025." The framing moved from product feature to platform-level transformation with measurable e-commerce displacement.

VAS reframed as the primary growth engine. Through FY25 VAS was described as "approaching 30% of revenue" with mid-20s growth — one of three engines. This quarter the language hardens: "Value-added services constant dollar revenue grew 28% and represented around 50% of our overall revenue growth in the first quarter." When half of incremental revenue growth comes from one segment, the business model has materially shifted toward platform/SaaS-style monetization, with implications for incentives, margin durability, and how the long-term algorithm should be discounted.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Visa as a payments hyperscaler and infrastructure providerTokenization as market transformation replacing legacy PAN technologyAgentic commerce operationalization and ecosystem partnershipsStablecoin infrastructure and advisory services expansionValue-added services acceleration driving revenue mix shiftCommercial and money movement solutions momentum (20% growth)

Risks management surfaced:

Lower-than-expected currency volatility dragging FY26 resultsVisa Direct client migration to own proprietary solutionCapital One debit migration reducing interlink volumesWeather impacts on discretionary spend categoriesQ3 volatility comparisons facing toughest prior-year compsMacroeconomic environment assumption dependency

Q&A highlights

Adam Frisch · Evercore ISI

Requested detail on commercial segment outperformance - whether it was execution or market unlock - and requested perspective on spending trends across major regions and affluent vs mass segments.

Management attributed commercial growth to multi-year strategy execution: converting small/medium business spending (Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business), scaling large/middle market virtual payables (trip.com), and delivering network flexibility (BMO Canada win). Provided regional volume color: international up 9% (stable vs Q4), Europe consistent, Asia impacted by timing of tax payments, modest regional variability normalized.

International volume growth 9% Q1 vs 10% Q4Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business portfolio winTrip.com global virtual travel card issuing businessBMO Canada network-agnostic enhanced spend management launch

Tianjin Wang · J.P. Morgan

Asked about technology investment in issuer processing assets (DPS, Pismo), recent wins (Block, Pismo expansion), TAM validation, and whether TAM assumptions have changed.

Management confirmed no TAM change; issuer processing TAM remains 'enormous' as nearly all banks require tech stack modernization. Pismo thesis validated: cloud-native capabilities attracting both traditional banks modernizing infrastructure and FinTechs seeking international expansion. Confirmed product and engineering investments driving wins across both segments.

No TAM change in issuer processingPismo thesis: cloud-native, modernization opportunity, international FinTech expansion enablementBlock win in DPSPismo expansion ongoing

Dan Perlin · RBC Capital Markets

Inquired about value-added services opportunities specific to major events (Olympics, World Cup) - how purpose-built offerings leverage sponsorship assets.

Management highlighted marquee sponsorships enable pass-through of rights to clients globally. VAS sales teams design bespoke programs months in advance: advertising campaigns with sweepstakes for cardholders, branded client events at games, etc. Strong client demand, deepens partnerships, drives renewals and incremental business.

FIFA and Winter Olympics sponsorship assets in 2026Bespoke VAS programs designed months in advanceChase Sapphire Reserve cardholder sweepstakes examplesPrivate banking client events at FIFA games (US, Canada, Mexico)

Sanjay Sakrani · KBW

Asked whether 28% VAS growth in Q1 is sustainable for remainder of year, or driven by specific non-recurring factors; also clarified whether higher expenses from VAS revenue growth are variable/leverageable.

Management indicated 28% is above initial expectations but consistent with mid-20s momentum observed prior. Attributed growth to strategy execution and clear addressable market. Event-related expenses (FIFA, Olympics) will peak in Q2/Q3, making H1 expenses higher than H2, but tied to incremental revenue capture. Expenses characterized as variable to those specific initiatives.

Q1 VAS growth 28%, above expectationsPrior growth trajectory mid-20s rangeEvent expenses (FIFA, Olympics) peaking Q2/Q3H1 expense higher than H2 due to event timing

Darren Peller · Wolf Research

Asked what is offsetting lower FX volatility headwinds that allows maintenance of full-year revenue guidance; also queried capital allocation given market valuation.

Management cited strong VAS and CMS (Card Management Services) performance as primary offsets. VAS saw broad-based strength across all four portfolios (issuing solutions, acceptance, risk/security, advisory). CMS performed above expectations in Q1. Low FX in Q1 would create more full-year downside than originally expected, but offset by momentum expected throughout year. Capital return remains programmatic but opportunistic when stock underpriced.

VAS strong growth across all four portfoliosCMS high-growth quarter, above expectationsLow FX in Q1 creates more full-year downside than expectedMomentum expected to continue throughout year

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q1 FY26 revenue lands above 12% YoY — Q1 net revenue grew 15% YoY to $10.9B, comfortably above the 12% bar and above the "high end of low double digits" guide. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.17 exceeded the low-teens guide. The platform reframe is being matched by monetization. Status: Resolved positively

VAS contribution as % of revenue crossing 30% — Management did not give an explicit "X% of revenue" number this quarter but disclosed VAS grew 28% YoY constant-currency and contributed ~50% of overall revenue growth. The mid-20s growth rate has accelerated as the base widened, not decelerated. The threshold disclosure investors were watching for has been replaced by a more telling metric (share of growth), and the answer is favorable. Status: Resolved positively

Stablecoin-linked card spend growth and the $2.5B run-rate trajectory — Management did not refresh the stablecoin-linked card spend monthly run-rate figure. Instead, they disclosed total stablecoin settlement at a $4.6B annualized run rate globally and launched a global stablecoins advisory practice. The framework changed before the original metric could be tracked across quarters. Status: Not resolved

Trusted Agent Protocol adoption metrics — Visa disclosed 30+ partners actively building in the sandbox with multiple agents running live production transactions, and live agentic solutions in the U.S. and Samia with pilots in APAC and Europe. No named merchant integrations or transaction counts specific to the Trusted Agent Protocol were given. Status: Continue monitoring

Non-operating expense trajectory vs the $125-175M FY26 guide — Management lowered the FY26 non-operating expense range to $100-125M from $125-175M, citing Q1 outperformance. This removes ~$37.5M of midpoint headwind and contributes to the EPS-within-range raise. Status: Resolved positively

U.S. payments volume holding above the October MTD +7% pace — Visa reported total payments volume growth of 8% YoY in Q1 (cross-border held at +11/+12%). Management did not call out U.S.-specific volume softness; commercial and consumer trends were characterized as durable. The resilient-consumer framing held. Status: Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the Q2 revenue guide of "low double digits" prints above 11.5% YoY — Visa just beat the "high end of low double digits" Q1 guide by ~3pts. A Q2 print at the literal low end (~10%) would suggest Q1 captured outsized FX volatility that won't repeat; a print above 12% would imply the FY26 revenue reaffirmation is conservative and a mid-year raise is coming.

International transaction revenue growth trajectory — decelerated from +14% (Q3 FY25) to +10% (Q4) to +6% (Q1). The Q3 FY26 comp is the toughest of the year on volatility. Watch for stabilization in the +5-7% range or further compression below +5%, which would pressure the FY26 revenue algorithm.

VAS share of revenue growth holding at or above 50% — this quarter's disclosure that VAS drove ~50% of Q1 growth is the new bar. A drop below 40% would signal the 28% growth rate is decelerating faster than the base is widening; sustained 50%+ confirms the platform monetization thesis.

Q2 OpEx growth landing inside the mid-teens guide — management raised Q2 OpEx growth to mid-teens (~1pt above Q1) on FIFA/Olympics-related spend. Watch whether the H1 OpEx-heavy framing reverses in H2 as guided, or whether event-related spend overruns leak into H2 and pressure full-year OpEx leverage.

Stablecoin settlement run-rate progression beyond $4.6B annualized — the metric was reset this quarter from card-spend run rate to settlement run rate. The relevant test is whether settlement scales to $7-10B+ annualized by year-end, and whether the new global advisory practice produces named-client disclosures or attributable VAS revenue.

Named merchant integrations on the Trusted Agent Protocol — 30+ sandbox partners is encouraging but not yet commercial. Watch for at least one named major merchant going live on the protocol and any disclosed agentic-commerce transaction volume.

CCCA legislative trajectory — management was evasive on Hill engagement and probability of passage. Watch for any new committee activity, vote scheduling, or disclosed Visa lobbying spend that would imply rising tail risk into the 2026 legislative session.

Sources

Visa Inc. Q1 FY2026 earnings press release, January 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403161/000140316126000044/q12026earningsrelease.htm
Visa Inc. Q1 FY2026 earnings conference call transcript and prepared remarks
Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 brief on Visa Inc.
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief on Visa Inc.

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.