V · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Visa Inc.

Reported October 28, 2025

30-second summary

30-second take: Q4 net revenue grew 12% YoY to $10.72B, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.98 and GAAP operating margin at 57.3% (non-GAAP ~66.3%); VAS-heavy "Other revenue" jumped 21% and data processing 17%, both outpacing core service revenue at 10%. Management initiated FY26 guidance at low-double-digit revenue, OpEx, and EPS growth — essentially holding the FY25 algorithm — while explicitly repositioning Visa from a payments network to a "hyperscaler" platform with stablecoins, agentic commerce, and tokenization elevated from optionality to operating priorities. The Q1 FY26 guide at the "high end of low double digits" revenue and low-teens EPS growth is the most confident near-term setup Visa has issued in several quarters.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.98

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$10.72B

+12.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

57.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$10.72B	+12.0%	$10.17B	+5.4%
EPS	$2.98	—	$2.98	+0.0%
Operating margin	57.4%	—	60.7%	-330bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Net revenue growth	Q4 FY2025	high single digits to low double digits	12%	+0.5-1.5pts above guide (high end of range)	Beat
Operating expense growth	Q4 FY2025	high single digits to low double digits	not explicitly disclosed in actuals	in-line (actuals imply single-digit OpEx growth based on operating margin of 57.4%)	Met
EPS growth	Q4 FY2025	high single digits	Q4 non-GAAP EPS $2.98 (vs Q3 implied ~$2.84 based on FY total $11.47 and three prior quarters)	inferred above high-single digit range based on strong Q4 revenue beat	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Non-operating expense	FY2026	$125 to $175 million	—
Adjusted net revenue growth	FY2026	low double digits	—
Adjusted operating expense growth	FY2026	low double digits	—
Adjusted EPS growth	FY2026	low double digits	—
Tax rate	FY2026	18.5% to 19%	—
Adjusted net revenue growth	Q1 FY2026	high end of low double digits	—
Adjusted operating expense growth	Q1 FY2026	low double digits	—
Non-operating expense	Q1 FY2026	about $15 million	—
Tax rate	Q1 FY2026	around 18%	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Tax rate (18.5% to 19%)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Service Revenue	$4.602B	+10.0%
Data Processing Revenue	$5.394B	+17.0%
International Transaction Revenue	$3.8B	+10.0%
Other Revenue	$1.176B	+21.0%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Share Repurchases	$4.9B
Dividend Increase	14% to $0.670 per share

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Payments Volume Growth	9%
Cross-Border Volume Excluding Intra-Europe Growth	11%
Total Cross-Border Volume Growth	12%
Processed Transactions Growth	10% (67.7 billion transactions)
Operating Margin	57.4%
Client Incentives as % of Revenue	39.6%

Management tone

Q2 FY25 macro caution → Q3 FY25 "build the future of payments" pivot → Q4 FY25 platform reframe as "hyperscaler" with explicit FY26 commitment to the same growth algorithm.

From payments network with adjacent services to "Visa as a Service" hyperscaler. Three quarters ago Visa described itself as a payments network with growing VAS adjacencies. Last quarter the framing tilted toward "platform for the future of payments." This quarter the architectural reframe is explicit: "Visa has become a hyperscaler, enabling anyone that wants to be in the money movement or payments business to build on top of the Visa as a service stack." The shift is consequential because it positions Visa to monetize ecosystem partners — fintechs, banks, even competitors — rather than competing with them, and reframes the long-term TAM debate.

From agentic commerce as imminent to agentic commerce as live with open standards. Last quarter management committed to "general availability later this year" on Visa Intelligent Commerce. This quarter it landed: "we are now powering live agentic transactions and recently released a merchant agent toolkit…Just two weeks ago, we announced the Visa Trusted Agent Protocol, a framework that enables safer agent-driven checkout." The watch-list bar from last quarter was cleared, and the new framing — open protocol, ecosystem collaboration — directly addresses the Stripe competitive question raised in Q&A.

From stablecoin experiments to stablecoin operating infrastructure. Q3 framed stablecoins as testing in specific corridors. Q4 quantified velocity: "monthly volume has now passed a $2.5 billion annualized run rate…In Q4, stable coin linked Visa card spend quadrupled versus a year ago…We are starting to enable banks to mint and burn their own stablecoins." Stablecoins have moved from optionality to a disclosed run-rate business with bank-side product (Visa Tokenized Asset Platform) shipping.

From tokenization as feature to 100% tokenization as mandate. Visa now has 16B tokens globally, up from 10B in May 2024. The framing — "in pursuit of our ultimate goal of 100% of e-commerce transactions tokenized" — moves tokenization from an opportunistic e-commerce security feature to a strategic transformation imperative tied directly to the agentic commerce thesis.

From VisaNet as stable core to VisaNet as AI-built cloud-native rebuild. Management disclosed that deployment of the next-generation VisaNet has begun and that "over half of the new code base was built with the assistance of generative AI." For a company whose moat rests partly on processing reliability, explicitly disclosing AI-generated production code in core infrastructure is a confidence signal that AI accelerates product velocity without compromising the platform.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Visa as a Service platform architecture enabling ecosystem partnersAgentic commerce leadership via standards and open protocolsStablecoin monetization acceleration with cross-border and settlement use casesAI-driven fraud detection and network-agnostic risk capabilitiesTokenization as universal goal with 16B tokens in marketValue-added services revenue growth outpacing core payments (25% VAS growth vs 11% total revenue)

Risks management surfaced:

Macroeconomic uncertainty and potential consumer spending slowdown (though management downplayed this)Foreign exchange volatility impacting nominal growth (expects continued drag in early quarters)Security and fraud risks in agentic commerce requiring ecosystem maturityRegulatory uncertainty around stablecoins and cross-border flowsCompetition in VAS space from other payments ecosystem participants

Q&A highlights

Raina Kumar · Oppenheimer

Why did Latin America show a slight deceleration in volume versus last quarter?

Latin America still grew strong but slower than Q3, primarily due to moderating inflation in Argentina. Management remains pleased with the region's overall performance as a high-growth area.

Latin America volume growth decelerated versus Q3Primary driver: moderating inflation in ArgentinaRegion remains classified as high-growth

Ken Chahosky · Anonymous Research

How does Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol differentiate from Stripe's agentic commerce protocol, and what is the role of tokenization with 16 billion tokens in agentic commerce scaling?

Tokenization is the critical building block for agentic commerce. Visa's 16 billion tokens and well-adopted standards globally provide scale advantages. The Trusted Agent Protocol is positioned as an open, lightweight base layer for ecosystem partners to build upon, emphasizing collaboration as key to success.

16 billion Visa tokens embedded across ecosystemTokenization described as critical building blockTrusted Agent Protocol designed as open standardProtocol intentionally lightweight for easy merchant integration

Brian Keane · Citi

How is Visa thinking about holiday sales growth rate potentially being weaker than prior year, and how do cross-border, e-commerce, and travel segments compare?

Management provided strong Q1 (holiday) guidance citing strong underlying drivers and pricing benefits from prior year, supporting resilient consumer backdrop. Cross-border stable at 11% in both Q3 and Q4; e-commerce steady at 13% both quarters; travel improved 1 point. E-commerce mix now ~40% of cross-border versus ~33% pre-COVID.

Q1 (holiday) guidance: strong growth expectedCross-border growth: 11% (Q3 and Q4)E-commerce: 13% (Q3 and Q4)Travel improved 1 point Q3 to Q4

Harsita Rawat · Bernstein

What are the most tangible areas of opportunity for stablecoins in coming years across cards, BAS, NUPLO, and other use cases post-Genius Act?

Management sees stablecoin opportunities across issuance, settlement modernization via PISMO, cross-border money movement via Visa Direct pre-funding, and tokenized asset minting/burning. Primary product-market fit areas are emerging markets and cross-border (remittances, B2B payouts, gig economy), where Visa is under-penetrated. Deep product pipeline being built.

Stablecoin opportunities: issuance, settlement modernization, cross-border money movementPISMO platform leveraging stablecoinsVisa Direct pre-funding announcementTokenized asset platform minting/burning for clients

Kim Chiodo · UBS

What is driving the ~30% RPO growth this year, and how has VAS evolved from ~20% of revenue in high-teens growth to ~30% of revenue in mid-20s growth?

Management confirmed VAS growth strategies from Investor Day are being delivered. RPO growth driven by multiple factors including value-in-kind incentives, which represent an important lever allowing clients to drive their own value while benefiting Visa through client engagement and spillover to other business areas.

VAS approaching 30% of revenue (from ~20%)VAS growth accelerated to mid-20s (from high-teens)RPO growth: ~30% this yearValue-in-kind is important RPO lever but doesn't drive majority of VAS

Answers to last quarter's watch list

VAS revenue growth holding above 20% YoY constant-currency in Q4 — Resolved positively. VAS growth was characterized as "mid-20s," with "Other revenue" (which captures much of VAS) up 21%, indicating the 26% Q3 print was not Olympics-driven and the algorithm is structural. Status: Resolved positively

Visa Intelligent Commerce moving from pilot to GA in 2025 — Resolved positively. Management confirmed agentic transactions are now live, with a merchant agent toolkit and the Visa Trusted Agent Protocol released. The "later this year" commitment landed inside the fiscal year. Status: Resolved positively

Cross-border ex-intra-Europe trajectory and Canada corridor pressure — Resolved positively. Cross-border ex-intra-Europe held at 11% in Q4 (same as Q3), and October MTD accelerated to +12%. International transaction revenue decelerated to +10% from +14% as FX-volatility yield boost normalized, but volumes are stable and e-commerce mix continues to shift higher (40% of cross-border vs 33% pre-COVID). Status: Resolved positively

Visa Direct transaction progression past 10B rolling-12-month and yield model — Continue monitoring. Management referenced Visa Direct pre-funding announcements and stablecoin integration but did not disclose updated rolling transaction count or explicit yield migration toward ad valorem. Status: Continue monitoring

FY25 finishing above the implicit raise — Resolved positively. FY25 closed at ~$40B revenue (+11% YoY) and $11.47 non-GAAP EPS, with Q4 revenue +12% landing at the high end of the HSD-to-LDD guide range. The company delivered on the "FY25 will finish higher than expected" commitment. Status: Resolved positively

Stablecoin corridor disclosures — Resolved positively. Visa disclosed a $2.5B annualized monthly run rate for stablecoin-linked card volume, stablecoin-linked Visa card spend quadrupling YoY in Q4, and the launch of bank-side mint/burn capability via the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform. The framing moved from "specific corridors" to a quantified business. Status: Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY26 revenue lands above 12% YoY — guide is "high end of low double digits" and EPS at low teens. A print below 11.5% revenue growth or sub-low-teens EPS would suggest the platform reframe is running ahead of monetization.

VAS contribution as % of revenue crossing 30% — management said VAS is "approaching 30%." Watch for explicit disclosure of the threshold being crossed and whether mid-20s VAS growth sustains as the base widens.

Stablecoin-linked card spend growth and the $2.5B run-rate trajectory — quadrupling YoY off a small base is easy; the test is whether monthly run-rate exits FY26 materially above $5B annualized and whether bank-issued mint/burn (Visa Tokenized Asset Platform) produces named bank clients.

Trusted Agent Protocol adoption metrics — Visa positioned this as an open standard. Watch for named merchant integrations, transaction counts on agentic commerce, and whether Stripe/competitor protocols converge with or fragment from Visa's standard.

Non-operating expense trajectory vs the $125-175M FY26 guide — the swing from ~$287M income to ~$150M expense midpoint is a ~$435M pre-tax drag being absorbed in the EPS guide. Any drift above $175M would compress FY26 EPS growth below the low-double-digit guide.

U.S. payments volume holding above the October MTD +7% pace — Q4 reported +9%; if calendar Q4 prints sub-7%, the resilient-consumer framing weakens entering 2026.

Sources

Visa Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings press release, October 28, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403161/000140316125000077/q42025earningsrelease.htm
Visa Inc. Q4 FY2025 earnings conference call transcript and prepared remarks
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief on Visa Inc.

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