V · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Visa Inc.

Reported April 28, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q2 net revenue grew 17% YoY to $11.23B — roughly 5pts above the "low double digits" guide management held two quarters ago — with non-GAAP EPS of $3.31, GAAP EPS of $3.14, and operating margin holding at 64.4%. Management raised FY26 net revenue growth and FY26 OpEx growth to "low double digit to low teens" from "low double digits," and raised FY26 adjusted EPS growth to "low teens" from "low double digits" — with the OpEx raise driven by client demand for FIFA-related marketing services rather than cost slippage. The signal: stablecoin settlement nearly doubled QoQ to a $7B run rate, VAS grew 27% in constant dollars on a now-30%-of-revenue base (CEO framed as "25%+", CFO disclosed 27%), and management opened with "Visa has become the leading hyperscaler of payments globally" — the architectural reframe from Q4 is now the standing operating language.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$3.31

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$11.23B

+17.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

64.4%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$11.23B	+17.0%	$10.90B	+3.0%
EPS	$3.31	—	$3.17	+4.4%
Operating margin	64.4%	—	61.8%	+260bps

Guidance

Visa raised full-year FY2026 revenue and operating expense growth guidance from 'low double digits' to 'low double digit to low teens' (10-13% range), driven by Q2 outperformance (17% revenue growth) and increased FIFA-related marketing services investments.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue growth	Q2 FY2026	low double digits	17%	+5-7pts above guide	Beat
Operating expense growth	Q2 FY2026	mid-teens	Not disclosed	—	Beat
Adjusted EPS growth	Q2 FY2026	high end of low double digits	Non-GAAP EPS $3.31	Actual reported; prior guide qualitative	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue growth	FY2026	low double digits	low double digit to low teens	+1-3pts to high end (raised to low teens from low double digits)	Raised
Operating expense growth	FY2026	low double digits	low double digit to low teens	+1-3pts to high end (raised to low teens from low double digits)	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-operating expense (Not re-guided), Tax rate (Not re-guided)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Service revenue	$4.981B	+13.0%
Data processing revenue	$5.543B	+18.0%
International transaction revenue	$3.631B	+10.0%
Other revenue	$1.32B	+41.0%

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Share Repurchases and Dividends	$9.2 billion in Q2

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Payments Volume	9% YoY growth (constant-dollar basis)
Cross-Border Volume Excluding Intra-Europe	11% YoY growth (constant-dollar basis)
Cross-Border Volume Total	12% YoY growth (constant-dollar basis)
Processed Transactions	66.1 billion transactions, 9% YoY growth
Client Incentives	$4.2 billion, 14% YoY increase
Operating Margin	64.4%
Non-GAAP Net Income Growth	17% YoY

Management tone

Q3 FY25 "build the future of payments" → Q4 FY25 hyperscaler reframe → Q1 FY26 hyperscaler operationalized → Q2 FY26 hyperscaler claims of leadership, with quantified AI ROI and stablecoin infrastructure positioning.

From "we are becoming a hyperscaler" to "the leading hyperscaler of payments globally." Q4 FY25 introduced the hyperscaler reframe. Q1 FY26 used it as the standing operating language. This quarter management makes a market-position claim: "Visa has become the leading hyperscaler of payments globally, and our strategy and Visa as a Service stack will help us drive future growth." The shift from architectural identity to assertion of leadership is consequential — management is now defending a competitive position rather than introducing a strategy, and the burden moves to evidence of platform partner monetization.

From AI as capability enhancer to AI as quantified ROI engine. Q3 FY25 referenced AI in abstract terms. Q4 FY25 disclosed that over half of the new VisaNet code base was AI-generated. Q1 FY26 introduced the LLM-based risk infrastructure. This quarter the proof arrives: "Our new Visa large transaction model is beginning to act as the foundational model for a variety of AI-powered fraud and risk services at Visa. Early results have shown that it can power up to a 5x increase in fraud value capture." A 5x improvement metric — disclosed publicly — is a quantification step Visa has historically avoided on AI; in Q&A management repeated the "2x-5x" range across fraud products. The framing is no longer "AI will improve our services" but "AI is delivering measurable competitive advantage today."

From stablecoin run-rate disclosure to stablecoin infrastructure positioning. Q4 FY25 disclosed a $2.5B annualized monthly run rate for stablecoin-linked card spend. Q1 FY26 reset the metric to $4.6B settlement run rate. This quarter: "We currently have a $7 billion annual run rate of stablecoin settlement volume, and it's growing fast, up more than 50% since last quarter… Running a validator node moves Visa from a blockchain participant to an infrastructure leader." Settlement scaled 52% QoQ — the answer to last quarter's watch item came in at the high end of the range — and the validator-node disclosure positions Visa one layer deeper than payment-rail integration.

From agentic commerce as emerging opportunity to agentic commerce as live revenue category. Q3 FY25 committed to GA "later this year." Q4 FY25 confirmed live transactions and the Trusted Agent Protocol. Q1 FY26 disclosed 30+ sandbox partners. This quarter management makes the revenue claim: "We expect more transactions, more value-added services, and therefore more revenue in the years ahead for agentic commerce… we are seeing growth in agentic shopping and the emergence of early agentic commerce, real transactions with Visa agentic tokens." The framing tightens from optionality to a category management is willing to forecast as a revenue contributor. The hedge — "while it's early" — is preserved, but the willingness to claim transactions are real removes the speculative wrapper.

From commercial as steady segment to commercial as record cross-border contributor. Last quarter commercial & money movement grew 20%; this quarter 24%, with management adding a structural marker: "Commercial cross-border volume now represents the highest percentage of both commercial volume and total cross-border volume in Visa's history." The 4pt sequential acceleration is meaningful — Visa Direct transactions grew 23% — and reframes commercial from "deepening relationships" to a structural mix shift inside the cross-border franchise.

VAS framing — CEO 25%+, CFO 27%. Ryan framed VAS as "growing at 25% plus in constant dollars" in his opening; Chris later disclosed the specific Q2 figure as 27% constant-dollar growth to $3.3B. The CFO print is the operative number; the CEO framing sets the algorithm floor.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Agentic commerce as expanding addressable market and new microtransaction categoryValue-Added Services scaling with AI (now 30% of revenue, 25%+ growth)Stablecoin payments and blockchain infrastructure maturation ($7B run rate, validator role)Commercial and money movement acceleration (24% growth, Visa Direct at 23% transaction growth)AI-powered fraud/risk and dispute resolution enhancing all servicesMulti-vector growth: consumer, commercial, money movement, and VAS all expanding simultaneously

Risks management surfaced:

Middle East conflict impact on Samia region (6% of total payments volume, ~2.5pt drag in Q2)Lower discretionary spend consumer potential weakening (though currently showing resilience)Volatility levels below prior year comparison (headwind for international transaction revenue)Macro uncertainty from geopolitical conflict ('introduced some near-term uncertainty, in particular to cross-border travel spend')Incentive growth stepping up in Q3 vs. Q2 (deal timing and lapping dynamics)

Q&A highlights

Tianjun Wang · J.P. Morgan

What were the biggest factors driving Q2 revenue upside and how does that change the second half outlook?

Management attributed outperformance to three factors: lower-than-expected volatility drag (volatility rose during Q2 vs. January guidance), strong VAS business growth driven by network products and marketing services demand, and incentives growing at 14% (below expectations due to deal timing). Q3 guidance anticipates similar volatility improvement and continued broad-based strength.

Incentives grew 14% in Q2, below expectationsVAS outperformance driven by network products and marketing servicesVolatility was a drag year-over-year but better than anticipatedQ3 expected to see another strong quarter with continued business strength

Darren Peller · Wolf Research

How much of VAS strength is driven by World Cup versus sustainable drivers, and has there been a step function increase in demand for fraud-protection services due to AI/bot threats?

Management confirmed yes to increased fraud-protection demand, citing fraud as top 3-4 concern for clients. Attributed strength to two factors: challenging fraud environment (cyber, enumeration attacks) and Visa's trusted position. Highlighted proprietary Visa LLM delivering 2x-5x improvements in value capture. For VAS durability, explained marketing services growth has underlying strength beyond event cycling through deepened client engagement flywheel, though Olympics/FIFA provide acceleration this year.

Fraud is now top 3-4 concern for issuers, acquirers, merchants (vs. lower priority years ago)Visa LLM showing 2x-5x improvements in value capture on fraud productsMarketing services business deepens client engagement and creates flywheel for incremental Visa volume growthNetwork products driving outperformance in Q2, not just marketing services events

Tim Chioda · UBS

Can you expand on the importance of CEDP and DCAP programs, which both reduce merchant acceptance costs and require enhanced merchant data sharing with Visa?

Management framed both programs as examples of Visa's value-add strategy: leveraging network position to create enhanced data payloads enabling ecosystem participants (partners, issuers, acquirers, merchants) to improve dispute processes, risk programs, authorization decisions, and fraud reduction. Used tokenization and commercial product platforms to incentivize data contribution and create monetization opportunities.

CEDP and DCAP both drive reduced cost-of-acceptance for merchantsEnhanced data payloads enable better dispute processes, risk programs, authorization decisionsVisa incentivizes ecosystem participation through these platforms to improve fraud reductionStrategy leverages Visa's network position across multiple ecosystem layers

Craig Moore · FT Partners

How can Visa achieve fraud liability parity with American Express on agentic commerce transactions in a four-party network, particularly regarding issuer buy-in on rulemaking?

Management responded with high-level principles rather than specific commitments: emphasized agentic commerce is early-stage, Visa cardholders will remain protected as historically promised, authenticated token transactions will reduce fraud, and issuers/merchants will have more transaction data for disputes. Stated Visa will evolve rules with full ecosystem buy-in as use cases mature, citing historical precedent (e-commerce, mobile).

Agentic commerce use cases and threat factors described as 'very early'Visa cardholders protected by historical fraud protectionsAuthenticated tokens will reduce fraud in agentic transactionsMore transaction data will be available to issuers and merchants for dispute resolution

Harshita Rawat · Bernstein

What is Visa's updated perspective on payments nationalism and how is management engaging with governments outside the U.S., particularly in Europe?

Management characterized nationalism/sovereignty as longstanding, not new; emphasized payments are inherently local and Visa operates with local teams, infrastructure, and partners in all key markets. For Europe specifically: highlighted commitment (29 offices, 6,000+ employees, presence in 38 countries), strong growth momentum (added 30M cards last year, closing wins for another 30M), and competitive position based on Visa brand/trust value. Acknowledged more competition ahead (domestic wallets, account-to-account, digital euro initiatives like Wiro) but expressed confidence in continued market share gains.

Visa has 6,000+ employees across 29 offices in 38 European countriesAdded 30 million cards in Europe in past year; pipeline for another 30 million from closed winsDomestic digital payment wallets showing traction in account-to-account and person-to-personVisa expects more European competition, not less (Wiro, digital euro)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the Q2 revenue guide of "low double digits" prints above 11.5% YoY — Q2 printed +17% YoY, roughly 5pts above the 12% upper bar. This is the strongest revenue surprise Visa has produced in the four quarters covered, and it directly drove the FY26 top-end raise. Status: Resolved positively

International transaction revenue growth trajectory — Re-accelerated to +10% in Q2 from +6% in Q1, reversing the deceleration from +14% (Q3 FY25) → +10% (Q4) → +6% (Q1). Volatility comping less unfavorably than feared was the named driver. The Q3 FY26 toughest-volatility-comp test still lies ahead, but Q2 lifts the H2 baseline materially. Status: Resolved positively

VAS share of revenue growth holding at or above 50% — Management did not restate the "~50% of revenue growth" formulation this quarter, instead disclosing VAS at 30% of net revenue and growing 27% in constant dollars (CEO framed as "25%+"). The new disclosure is consistent with sustained share-of-growth contribution but not directly comparable to last quarter's framing. The bar was implicit rather than restated; VAS growth held above the algorithm. Status: Continue monitoring

Q2 OpEx growth landing inside the mid-teens guide — Visa did not disclose Q2 OpEx growth as a standalone figure. Operating margin held at 64.4%, and FY26 OpEx growth was raised to "low double digit to low teens" — meaning the H1-heavy framing did not reverse in H2 as previously suggested; instead, FIFA-driven activation spend extends the elevated OpEx posture across the full year. Status: Continue monitoring

Stablecoin settlement run-rate progression beyond $4.6B annualized — Settlement run rate reached $7B annualized, up 52% QoQ from $4.6B at Q1. The progression lands in the middle of the $7-10B watch range with two quarters of fiscal year remaining. Validator-node positioning was a new disclosure, but no named-client attribution from the global stablecoin advisory practice was provided. Status: Resolved positively

Named merchant integrations on the Trusted Agent Protocol — Management characterized agentic transactions as "real" and disclosed early growth, but did not name specific major-merchant integrations on the Trusted Agent Protocol or disclose agentic-commerce transaction volume. The deflection on Amex fraud-parity in Q&A reinforces that the commercial framework is still forming. Status: Continue monitoring

CCCA legislative trajectory — Management did not address CCCA in prepared remarks or in disclosed Q&A. No new disclosure on Hill engagement, vote scheduling, or lobbying activity. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 FY26 net revenue growth holds above 13% — Q3 FY25 revenue was $10.17B and the FY26 guide implies low-teens growth. A print at or above +13% with a Q3 incentive step-up absorbed would imply the FY26 raise is still conservative; a print below 12% would suggest the Q2 beat was front-loaded by VAS event timing.

International transaction revenue against the toughest volatility comp — Q3 FY25 printed +14%; the Q2 re-acceleration to +10% gives a higher base entering this comp. A print sustaining +8% or above would confirm cross-border yield expansion is structural; a fall back to +5% or below would reopen the FY26 algorithm question.

Stablecoin settlement run-rate progression toward $10B annualized — At $7B with 52% QoQ growth, the implied exit pace if growth halves is roughly $10B annualized by Q4. Watch for named issuer or treasury clients on the validator-node infrastructure, and any attributable VAS revenue from the global advisory practice.

Agentic commerce: named merchant integrations or disclosed transaction counts — Management's deflection on Amex fraud-parity is the clearest gap in the current narrative. A named major-merchant integration on the Trusted Agent Protocol, or an attributable agentic-commerce transaction figure, would convert the "early but real" framing into a quantified category.

FY26 OpEx growth landing inside the new "low double digit to low teens" range — FIFA activation spend justified the raise, but with H1 OpEx already elevated and the H2 reversal previously guided no longer in play, watch whether the FY26 OpEx print drifts above 13% — which would compress operating margin below the 64.4% Q2 level.

Whether VAS growth of 25%+ holds as the base widens past 30% of revenue — the algorithm bar is intact this quarter (Q2 printed 27%), but a deceleration toward 20% in H2 would test the platform-monetization thesis as event-driven contribution rolls off.

CCCA committee activity into the 2026 legislative session — silence persists. Any new committee scheduling, vote activity, or disclosed lobbying spend would indicate rising tail risk that markets are not currently pricing.

Sources

Visa Inc. Q2 FY2026 earnings press release, April 28, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403161/000140316126000077/q22026earningsrelease.htm
Visa Inc. Q2 FY2026 earnings conference call transcript and prepared remarks
Tapebrief Q1 FY2026 brief on Visa Inc.
Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 brief on Visa Inc.
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief on Visa Inc.

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