tapebrief
VMC · Q4 2025

VMC · Q1 2026 Earnings

Neutral

Vulcan Materials Company

Reported April 29, 2026

30-second summary

Vulcan opened FY2026 with Q1 revenue of $1.756B (+7.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $447.1M at a 25.5% margin (+40bps YoY, +9% YoY), with aggregates cash gross profit per ton printing $10.93 — above the Q4 $10.73 low but still below the $11.84/$11.88 Q3/Q2 FY2025 band that the equity story was anchored to. Management reiterated the $2.4–$2.6B FY adjusted EBITDA range, and Appendix 2 of the press release discloses a midpoint reconciliation (net earnings $1,210M, interest $225M, DD&A $700M, tax $350M) consistent with the February framework — though the explicit line-item ranges for net earnings, shipment growth, freight-adjusted pricing, capex, SAG, interest, DD&A, tax rate, and Asphalt+Concrete cash gross profit are not reiterated in the Q1 release. Pricing printed +4% mix-adjusted YoY (low end of the 4–6% prior guide), Q2 carries a ~$25M diesel headwind that pushes Q2 cost growth to high-single-digits, and the back-half-weighted pricing recovery rests on mid-year increases — rolled "several weeks ago," earlier than prior year — whose magnitude management would not quantify.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$1.35

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$1.76B

+7.4% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

24.1%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$0.06B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

15.1%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$1.76B+7.4%$1.91B-8.2%
EPS$1.35—$1.70-20.6%
Gross margin24.1%—25.5%-140bps
Operating margin15.1%—19.8%-470bps
Free cash flow$0.06B———

Guidance

Company reiterates full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $2.4–$2.6B but withdraws detailed FY2026 guidance on net earnings, shipments growth, price improvement, capex, and tax rate, signaling a shift toward high-level profitability targets and selective disclosure.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Net earnings attributable to Vulcan
FY 2026
$1.1 to $1.3 billionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Aggregates total shipments growth
FY 2026
1% to 3%Withdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Freight-adjusted price improvement
FY 2026
4% to 6%Withdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
SAG expense
FY 2026
$580 to $590 millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Interest expense
FY 2026
approximately $225 millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Capital spending
FY 2026
$750 to $800 millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Depreciation, depletion, accretion and amortization
FY 2026
approximately $700 millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Effective tax rate
FY 2026
22% to 23%Withdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn
Asphalt and Concrete segment cash gross profit
FY 2026
approximately $290 millionWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EBITDA ($2.4 to $2.6 billion)

Segment KPIs

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026YoY
Aggregates$1.451B+8.6%
Asphalt$0.216B+3.4%
Concrete$0.188B+5.9%

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Aggregates Shipments50.0 million tons
Freight-adjusted Sales Price per Ton$22.80
Aggregates Gross Profit per Ton$8.01
Aggregates Cash Gross Profit per Ton$10.93
Adjusted EBITDA$447.1 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin25.5%
SAG as % of Revenue7.7%
Return on Invested Capital (TTM)16.0%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 FY2025: weather drag, H2 acceleration "beginning" → Q3 FY2025: +12% Q3 shipments confirmed the July pace → Q4 FY2025: shipments slowed, EBITDA missed low end of guide, FY2026 set with 1–3% volume/4–6% pricing detail → Q1 FY2026: EBITDA reiterated, Appendix 2 reconciliation discloses midpoint architecture, prose framing narrows to "momentum + backlog."

The press release frames the year through "execution in the first quarter, in addition to a healthy backlog supported by large projects and public construction activity, gives us good momentum heading into the rest of the year" — language that is somewhat vaguer than the "continued earnings growth" framing of Q4 and the "17% YoY EBITDA growth at midpoint" framing of Q3 FY2025, but Appendix 2 still discloses the midpoint architecture. The signal: management is anchoring on the EBITDA range and letting the supporting line items live in the reconciliation rather than the body of the release.

The pricing narrative has shifted from defending Q4 weakness to actively requiring back-half acceleration. In Q4, management told Tyler Brown that pricing would weight to the low end of 4–6% in H1, accelerating in H2 on data-center mix maturation. This quarter, Stephen Fisher (UBS) was told the same shape — low end in H1, acceleration in H2 — but now with the additional layer that mid-year price increases were rolled "earlier than prior year." That earlier timing is consistent with management knowing the H1 print would track at the 4% floor and needing to pull the H2 lever forward.

The diesel narrative is new and large. CFO Mary Andrews put a ~$25M Q2 headwind on the table and confirmed cost growth steps from low-single-digits at the FY level to high-single-digits in Q2 — meaningful framing detail that did not exist in any prior brief. Garrick Schmoy (Loop Capital) was walked through mitigation in unusual operational depth (stripping flexibility, plant operations use minimal diesel, fixed-plant contracts indexed, ~57M gallons annual burn). This is management front-loading visibility on the Q2 margin compression so it can pre-empt the read when the Q2 print lands.

The geopolitical hedge that appeared in the press release — "we continue to monitor the potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainty but, as always, will remain focused on what we can control" — is new language for Vulcan. It is generic, but it is the first time in four quarters management has added this carve-out to the FY framing.

Risks management surfaced:

Forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties

Q&A highlights

Trey Grooms · Stevens

Walk through key puts and takes in Q1 across price, volume, and cost, and explain how management is thinking about these drivers in light of recent diesel price moves and macro backdrop.

Management highlighted strong operational execution with 5% volume growth driven by data center demand and normalized weather. Pricing was at lower end of guidance due to lapping hurricane relief; cost growth held to 4% despite diesel headwinds beginning in February. Management emphasized proven track record of offsetting cost increases through Vulcan Way of Operating and commercial discipline, with confidence in pricing acceleration through the year.

Adjusted EBITDA: $447 million, up 9% YoYVolume growth: 5% YoYFreight-adjusted price improvement: 4% YoYUnit cash cost increase: 4% YoY

Garrick Schmoy · Loop Capital

Given moving pieces including diesel cost impacts, explain confidence in reiterating full-year guidance of $2.4-2.6B adjusted EBITDA.

Management detailed diesel impact mitigation across operations: stripping can be pushed/pulled, process intelligence improves fuel efficiency in loading/hauling, plant operations use minimal diesel. On selling side, fixed-plant contracts and real-time quotes both have pricing mechanisms. Management emphasized proven ability to convert headwinds to positives historically. Mary Andrews quantified Q2 diesel headwind at approximately $25M, pushing cost growth from low single-digits to high single-digits in Q2 before moderating in H2.

Diesel burn: ~57 million gallons annuallyQ2 diesel headwind estimate: ~$25 millionQ2 cost growth guidance: high single-digit range (vs. low single-digit full-year)Half of sales to fixed plants with indexed pricing

Stephen Fisher · UBS

Clarify pricing expectations in Q2 including diesel surcharges, and reconcile upper single-digit cost growth expectation in Q2 with low single-digit full-year guidance given Q1 performance.

Management reiterated that freight-adjusted pricing excludes delivery surcharges, which do not flow through reported pricing. Confirmed pricing trajectory of lower-end start accelerating through year, with mid-year increases confirming backward-half acceleration. Mary Andrews explained that while Q2 will see highest diesel pressure, company still expects to deliver low single-digit full-year cost growth through back-half moderation and operational levers.

Freight-adjusted pricing excludes surchargesPricing expected at low end in H1, accelerating in H2Q2 cost pressure highest before pricing actions flow throughFull-year cost growth still expected at low single-digit range

Anthony Petanari · Citi

Provide detail on magnitude and market coverage of mid-year price increases, and discuss any other cost pressures from geopolitical conflicts beyond diesel.

Management stated mid-year increases were rolled out to all markets several weeks ago (earlier than prior year). Did not quantify magnitude, noting that asphalt side (tied to public work and indexed contracts) should see acceptance; concrete side (tied to residential) may face more spirited discussions but is historically recoverable. No other cost impacts from Middle East conflict identified yet, but management monitoring. Emphasized historical track record of recovering costs and not giving back pricing gains.

Mid-year increases rolled to all marketsTiming: several weeks ago, earlier than prior yearAsphalt tied to public work with indexes on longer-term contractsConcrete side facing residential headwinds

Michael Dennis · Vertical Research

Could acceleration in data center and public project timelines contribute to volume upside via faster backlog conversion and efficiencies?

Management emphasized advantaged footprint: public contract awards up 12% in their markets vs. double-digit declines elsewhere. Cited specific strength in Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Coastal Texas, North Texas, and Georgia on infrastructure. Noted 60% of large projects within 50 miles of Vulcan facility. Confidence in 2026 growth driven by public and private non-res, not residential. Highlighted 45% of IIJA dollars still unspent and smooth transition expected between funding programs.

Trailing 12-month public contract awards: up 12% in Vulcan marketsPublic infrastructure awards: up 17%60% of large projects within 50 miles of Vulcan facilityIIJA funds spent: 55% (45% remaining)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q1 2026 aggregates cash gross profit per ton — does Q4's $10.73 print prove to be a low or the new baseline? Q1 came in at $10.93, recovering modestly from Q4 but well below the $11.50 validation threshold and the $11.84/$11.88 Q3/Q2 FY2025 band. The trailing-12-month $11.38 figure cited in Q&A shows the structural compounding story has flattened, not broken — but has not re-engaged either. Status: Continue monitoring
Q1 2026 freight-adjusted pricing — is the 4–6% guide tracking at the low end as flagged in Q&A? Yes — Q1 freight-adjusted pricing printed +4% mix-adjusted YoY (+3.5% reported), exactly at the low end of the 4–6% guide. Management explicitly confirmed +4% in Q&A and acknowledged H1 will weight to the low end before mid-year increases accelerate H2. Status: Resolved at low end of guide
Asphalt revenue — does the −8.1% Q4 print reverse? Yes — Asphalt grew +3.4% in Q1, reversing the Q4 step-down. Growth pace is well below Q3 FY2025's +9.2% but the negative print did not extend. Status: Resolved positively
Large-project share of bookings — does the ~45% mix hold or expand? Management did not re-disclose the 45% large-project bookings share this quarter. The 60%-of-large-projects-within-50-miles framing in Q&A is a related but different metric (geographic positioning, not bookings mix). Status: Continue monitoring
Hard data-center disclosure — tonnage, revenue, or backlog dollars. Still no hard tonnage or revenue disclosure. Management cited 650M square feet of data center capacity under construction or announced (an industry figure, not a Vulcan-specific number) in Q&A. Four quarters in, the data-center tailwind remains qualitative. Status: Resolved negatively
M&A announcements vs. the "very active 2026" framing. No material M&A announcement in Q1, but management referenced "several bolt-on acquisitions we expect to finalize in the coming months." Press release commentary does not return to the "very active 2026" language used in Q4 Q&A. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 aggregates cash gross profit per ton — does the $25M diesel headwind drop the print below $10.50, or does H1 pricing acceleration defend the $11.00 floor? Management has pre-disclosed the Q2 compression; a print at $10.50 or below would validate the diesel narrative, a print holding above $11.00 would suggest the mid-year price increases are landing.

Q2 freight-adjusted pricing — does H1 finish above 4% mix-adjusted on the back of mid-year increases? Q1 printed +4% mix-adjusted exactly; Q2 is the test of whether mid-year increases push the run-rate up toward the midpoint of the 4–6% prior band.

Q2 adjusted EBITDA vs. Q2 FY2025's ~31.4% margin and ~$659M implied figure. With Q1 at 25.5% margin and a $25M diesel headwind in Q2, the FY $2.4–$2.6B range requires either an extraordinary H2 or a Q2 print that does not break materially. A Q2 EBITDA margin below 30% would put the EBITDA low end in play.

Whether the explicit line-item ranges return in Q2 disclosure. If the explicit shipment growth, pricing, capex, and SAG ranges remain absent through Q2, the consolidated format is structural and the buy-side modeling tax compounds. If they return, Q1's format was a one-quarter posture during a period of higher Q2 cost uncertainty.

Concrete segment growth normalization. Q1's +5.9% step-down from Q4 +29.3% and Q3 +36.1% is largely acquisition-lapping mechanics, but a Q2 print below +5% would suggest underlying organic concrete demand is materially weaker than the headline 2025 prints implied.

Mid-year price increase realization rate. Management was explicit that asphalt-side acceptance is likely and concrete-side faces "more spirited discussions." A Q2 print where concrete pricing decelerates while aggregates accelerates would confirm management's framing; a print where both decelerate would suggest the mid-year increases are not sticking.

Sources

  1. Vulcan Materials Company Q1 FY2026 Earnings Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396009/000114036126017638/ef20071724_ex99-1.htm
  2. Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 VMC brief (prior-quarter guidance baseline)
  3. Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 VMC brief (multi-quarter unit-economics baseline)
  4. Tapebrief Q2 FY2025 VMC brief (FY2025 H2-acceleration narrative baseline)

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