VMC · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Vulcan Materials Company

Reported February 17, 2026

30-second summary

Vulcan closed FY2025 with Q4 revenue of $1.91B (+3.2% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $518M at a 27.1% margin, against FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.324B — just below the $2.35–$2.45B prior guide. Management set FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at $2.4–$2.6B, a midpoint of $2.50B that implies +7.6% YoY growth off the $2.324B FY2025 actual. The bull read is 4–6% pricing and continued cash-gross-profit-per-ton compounding (Q4 hit $10.73, well below the Q3 $11.84 and Q2 $11.88 prints); the bear read is that aggregates shipment growth guidance dropped to 1–3% from the ~3% FY2025 pace, asphalt revenue fell 8.1%, FY2025 EBITDA missed the low end of prior guide, and the Q4 unit economics already show the geographic/data-center mix drag management is asking investors to underwrite through 2026.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.70

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$1.91B

+3.2% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

25.5%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

19.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.91B	+3.2%	$2.29B	-16.6%
EPS	$1.70	—	$2.84	-40.1%
Gross margin	25.5%	—	30.4%	-490bps
Operating margin	19.8%	—	23.7%	-390bps

Guidance

FY2026 guidance raised at the Adjusted EBITDA high end with new quantitative disclosures; moderate shipment growth of 1–3% offset by stronger 4–6% pricing power.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Net earnings attributable to Vulcan	FY2026	$1.1 to $1.3 billion	—
Aggregates total shipments growth	FY2026	1% to 3%	—
Freight-adjusted price improvement	FY2026	4% to 6%	—
SAG expense	FY2026	$580 to $590 million	—
Interest expense	FY2026	approximately $225 million	—
Capital spending	FY2026	$750 to $800 million	—
Depreciation, depletion, accretion and amortization	FY2026	approximately $700 million	—
Effective tax rate	FY2026	22% to 23%	—
Asphalt and Concrete segment cash gross profit	FY2026	approximately $290 million	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$2.35 to $2.45 billion	$2.4 to $2.6 billion	+$0.15B at high end	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Aggregates	$1.52B	+3.2%
Asphalt	$0.301B	-8.1%
Concrete	$0.211B	+29.3%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Aggregates shipments	55.1 million tons
Freight-adjusted sales price per ton	$21.78
Aggregates cash gross profit per ton	$10.73
Aggregates gross margin	28.7%
Adjusted EBITDA	$518.0 million
Adjusted EBITDA margin	27.1%
Operating cash flow	$1.8 billion (FY)
Return on invested capital	15.7%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2: weather drag, H2 acceleration "beginning" → Q3: +12% Q3 shipments confirmed July, FY range narrowed to upper half → Q4: shipments slowed materially, FY2025 EBITDA missed the low end of guide, FY2026 volume guide cut to 1–3%, pricing pitched as the offset.

Three quarters ago the volume story was "H2 acceleration is beginning." Two quarters ago it was confirmed by +12% Q3 shipments. This quarter, the press release frames FY2026 as "continued earnings growth" rather than the "compounding 17% EBITDA growth at midpoint" narrative Vulcan ran at in Q3 — and the 1–3% shipment guide is the quantitative version of that softer language. Implied FY2026 EBITDA growth at the midpoint is ~7.6% ($2.50B vs. FY2025 actual $2.324B), well below the 13% delivered in FY2025 and the 17% midpoint pace the prior guide was set at.

The pricing narrative shifted from defending Q4 weakness to projecting recovery. In Q&A, management explicitly told Tyler Brown (Raymond James) that pricing will be weighted toward the low end of the 4–6% range in H1 2026, improving in H2 as data center projects mature from base stone to clean stone. That's a back-half-weighted underwrite — the same shape as the FY2025 H2-acceleration thesis, but with the variance now sitting in the pricing line rather than the volume line.

The M&A tone firmed materially. Mike Dudas (Vertical Research) was told 2026 will be "very active" after an integration-focused 2025, with management willing to expand into new geographies — a wider remit than the infill-led framing of prior quarters. With FY2026 capex stepping up to $750–$800M from ~$700M FY2025, the capital allocation posture is consistent with the acceleration message.

Cost confidence is unchanged. David McGregor (Longbow) was told low-single-digit cost guidance is anchored to labor, energy, and fuel visibility, with volume leverage as a tailwind rather than headwind in 2026. The $580–$590M SAG guide is essentially flat to FY2025 spend rates — Vulcan is not letting SG&A creep into the EBITDA bridge.

Q&A highlights

Trey Grooms · Stevens

Given Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance divergence, what is management's confidence level on the outlook, and what are the puts and takes on demand, pricing, and profitability?

Management expressed strong confidence in 2026 execution. Public demand remains solid with strong backlog; private non-residential (particularly data centers) showing acceleration with quick conversion to shipments. Residential expected to improve modestly if interest rates decline. Fixed plant price increases have been accepted. Vulcan Operating System (VWO) cost discipline to continue driving margin expansion alongside volume growth.

Public starts remain solid with strong backlogLarge projects (25,000+ tons) increased from ~30% to 45% of bookings, driven by data centersData center projects converting to shipments faster than historical normsFixed plant price increases for 2026 already implemented and accepted

Tyler Brown · Raymond James

Can management bridge the 3-percentage-point difference between reported (8%) and mix-adjusted (5%) pricing in Q4? How much did geography, product mix, and M&A contribute? What is the expected cadence of 4-6% pricing guidance in 2026?

Management quantified the 300 basis point headwind: two-thirds from geographic mix (prior year hurricane relief in high-ASP markets), one-third split equally between M&A drag and product mix from base-and-fill work. Pricing expected to be toward lower end of 4-6% range in H1 2026, improving in H2 as data center projects mature from base stone (lower ASP) to clean stone (higher ASP) phases.

Geographic mix accounted for ~200 basis points of Q4 pricing headwindM&A contributed ~75 basis points in Q4 (down from 100 basis points full-year impact)Product mix from data center projects contributed ~75 basis pointsData center projects front-loaded with base-and-fill (lower margin) work

Angel Castillo · Morgan Stanley

On data center margins: is base stone versus clean stone timing a significant drag through 2026? Are data centers higher or lower margin than traditional projects? How much pricing/margin drag is embedded in 2026 guidance?

Management noted base stone sells $8-10 per ton below clean stone but margin impact is modest due to favorable plant efficiency and pit shape. Data centers will continue to create mixed headwinds in 2026 similar to 2025, but this is embedded in the 4-6% pricing guidance. As data center projects mature vertically, clean stone will represent larger portion of shipments, offsetting early-stage base stone drag.

Base stone prices $8-10 per ton below clean stoneMargin compression from base stone is modest (not material)Base stone shipments benefit plant yields and utilization2025 base stone shipments will convert to clean stone products in 2026 from same projects

Michael Dudas · Vertical Research

Given improved balance sheet, what is management's M&A pipeline and strategy for 2026? Is there interest in expanding into new geographies?

Management expects 2026 to be a very active M&A year after integration-focused 2025. Strategy remains aggregate-led and disciplined. While focused on infill acquisitions within current footprint, management also willing to expand into new geographies to capture larger addressable market. Pipeline described as very healthy with good conversations ongoing, but management emphasizes discipline and avoiding overpayment.

2025 was integration year following two major late-2024 dealsExpect M&A to be very active in 2026Strategy is aggregate-led with disciplined approachEvaluating both infill within current geography and expansion into new markets

David McGregor · Longbow Research

Why characterize cost guidance as 'low single digits' with apparent uncertainty when pricing guidance is very specific (4-6%)? What are the biggest sources of cost uncertainty in 2026?

Management expressed confidence in low single-digit cost guidance based on controllable factors: labor, energy, and fuel all have good visibility. Uncertainty tied to demand variability rather than cost structure itself. Three years of muted demand made cost control difficult; improved demand environment in 2026 will be tailwind to costs, not headwind. VWO discipline expected to continue delivering results.

Low single-digit cost guidance matches 2025 actual (<2% increase)Confidence based on visibility to labor, energy, fuel costsDemand improvement expected to drive cost leverage through volumeThree years of muted demand made cost control challenging despite VWO discipline

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 aggregates shipment trajectory vs. the ~3% FY frame. Q4 shipments came in at 55.1M tons against a FY total of 226.8M (FY shipments +3%, in line with the Q3 framing). Aggregates segment revenue grew only +3.2% YoY in Q4 — a sharp decel from Q3's +14.0%. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.324B came in just below the low end of the $2.35–$2.45B prior guide — a small miss, with Q4 unit economics softer than the Q3 setup implied. Status: Resolved negatively

2026 volume framing — does "modest" firm to a specific number? Yes — FY2026 shipment guide of +1% to +3%, materially below the "modest" framing that prior-quarter language implied to investors. The low end is half the FY2025 pace. Status: Resolved negatively

Aggregates cash gross profit per ton — does it hold above $11.84 in Q4? No. Q4 came in at $10.73, roughly $1.10/ton below the Q3 and Q2 prints. Management attributed this to the same geographic + product mix drivers that pressured Q4 pricing. The multi-quarter compounding trajectory the equity story has leaned on broke in Q4. Status: Resolved negatively

Acquired-volume repricing on January 1. Management told Tyler Brown the M&A drag stepped down in Q4 from the ~100bps full-year 2025 impact, with fixed-plant 2026 letters implemented and accepted — directional progress, not yet a clean fade. Status: Continue monitoring

Data-center tonnage or revenue quantification. Vulcan still has not provided a hard tonnage or revenue figure for data centers. Disclosure improved qualitatively (large-project bookings now ~45% of total vs. historical ~30%, base/clean stone economics quantified at $8–10/ton differential), but the absolute size of the pipeline remains undisclosed. Status: Continue monitoring

California ready-mix divestiture close and proceeds redeployment. Press release confirms the California ready-mixed concrete disposition agreement was signed in Q4, with close expected in Q2 2026 subject to regulatory approvals; FY2026 guidance excludes these assets. M&A commentary in Q&A pointed to a "very active" 2026 pipeline without specifically referencing divestiture proceeds. Status: Partially resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 aggregates cash gross profit per ton — does Q4's $10.73 print prove to be a low or the new baseline? A Q1 print back above $11.50 would validate management's "Q4 mix was idiosyncratic" framing; a Q1 in the $10.50–$10.80 band would confirm the compounding trajectory has structurally broken.

Q1 2026 freight-adjusted pricing — is the 4–6% guide tracking at the low end as flagged in Q&A? Management explicitly told the Street to expect H1 weighted to the low end. A Q1 below 4% would force a guide cut; a Q1 already above 5% would suggest data-center mix reversal is faster than baseline.

Asphalt revenue — does the −8.1% Q4 print reverse, or does it signal a sustained step-down? Two quarters of positive growth (Q2 +5%, Q3 +9%) followed by an 8% decline in Q4 requires a Q1 directional answer.

Large-project share of bookings — does the ~45% mix hold or expand? Management framed this as the structural shift behind the data-center tailwind; sustained share above 45% would underwrite the pricing recovery, a retreat toward 35% would signal the data-center pipeline is converting slower than the bookings number suggests.

Hard data-center disclosure — tonnage, revenue, or backlog dollars. Three quarters in, this remains qualitative. Continued silence with another quarter of mix-related pricing pressure would make the data-center tailwind harder to underwrite.

M&A announcements vs. the "very active 2026" framing. Management committed to this in Q&A; the absence of announced deals through Q1–Q2 2026 would suggest the pipeline is less actionable than the language implies.

Sources

Vulcan Materials Company Q4 FY2025 Earnings Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396009/000114036126005605/ef20065685_ex99-1.htm
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 VMC brief (prior-quarter guidance baseline)
Tapebrief Q2 FY2025 VMC brief (prior-prior-quarter guidance baseline)

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