VMC · Q3 2025 Earnings

Neutral

Vulcan Materials Company

Reported October 30, 2025

30-second summary

Vulcan delivered Q3 FY2025 revenue of $2.29B (+14.3% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.84, with aggregates shipments of 64.7M tons (+12% YoY) and freight-adjusted pricing of $22.01/ton. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was narrowed to $2.35–$2.45B from $2.35–$2.55B — the top end was trimmed by $100M (−3.9%) and the midpoint moved $50M lower (−2.0%, from $2.45B to $2.40B), with management framing the new range as "17% YoY growth at midpoint." Q3 shipments confirmed the +12% July pace; the FY ~3% framing reflects tough Q4 weather comps from the prior-year hurricane-disrupted base, per Tom Hill. Unit economics continued to compound — aggregates cash gross profit per ton hit $11.84 (+9% YoY) and segment gross margin reached 34.2% — and underlying demand momentum (public contract awards +17% trailing-12-month in Vulcan markets, private non-res starts +7% trailing-6-month, data centers +26%) is intact heading into 2026.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$2.84

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$2.29B

+14.3% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

30.4%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

23.7%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.29B	+14.3%	$2.10B	+9.0%
EPS	$2.84	—	$2.45	+15.9%
Gross margin	30.4%	—	29.7%	+70bps
Operating margin	23.7%	—	22.4%	+130bps

Guidance

FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed at the high-end to $2.35–$2.45B (from $2.35–$2.55B), reflecting moderation in near-term momentum despite Q3 beat on revenue and strong operational execution.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA YoY growth	FY 2025	17% at midpoint	—
Aggregates shipments YoY growth	FY 2025	Similar to 3% YTD growth	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$2.35 to $2.55 billion	$2.35 to $2.45 billion	-$0.10 billion reduction in high-end guidance	Lowered
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	approximately $700 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Segment KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Aggregates	$1.792B	+14.0%
Asphalt	$0.416B	+9.2%
Concrete	$0.238B	+36.1%

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Aggregates shipments	64.7 million tons
Freight-adjusted price per ton	$22.01
Aggregates gross profit per ton	$9.46
Aggregates cash gross profit per ton	$11.84
Aggregates gross margin	34.2%
Adjusted EBITDA margin	32.1%
Asphalt mix shipments	4.3 million tons
Ready-mixed concrete shipments	1.2 million cubic yards

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q1: weather-disrupted but pricing intact → Q2: H2 acceleration "beginning," July double-digit → Q3: Q3 volumes +12% confirmed the July pace; FY range narrowed to the achievable half given Q4 weather comps; 2026 framed constructively with organic volume growth and mid-single-digit pricing.

Project conversion language firmed. In Q&A, management told Angel Castillo (Morgan Stanley) that "previously paused/postponed projects are now converting and shipping" and pointed to private non-res starts +7% trailing-6-month and +8% trailing-3-month in Vulcan markets, plus data centers +26%. Two LNG projects, manufacturing, and retail were also booked into backlog. The narrowing of the FY EBITDA range reflects Q4 weather-comp realism rather than a softening of the underwrite for 2026.

Public infrastructure tone is unchanged-to-firmer. "All top 10 DOTs up for FY26," "trailing 12-month highway starts up 17% in Vulcan states vs. 5% elsewhere," and "~60% of IIJA funds still to be spent" are the strongest public-side data points Vulcan has given. Management framed three rules around reauthorization: never on time, always happens, historically always larger than the predecessor.

Capex was reaffirmed at ~$700M for FY2025 ($442M YTD), with no change to the H2-weighted cadence flagged last quarter. The "data center pipeline converts now" thesis still requires private non-res faith, but the public side of the 2026 underwrite has high visibility.

Q&A highlights

Tyler Brown · Raymond James

Q3 volumes were strong but guided toward low end of full year. What's driving Q4 trends and can you provide more detail on 2026 'modest improvement' including puts and takes across three major end markets?

Q3 benefited from pent-up demand, easy comps, and strong public/non-res demand. Q4 faces tough weather comps but October supported 3% full-year guide. 2026: single-family remains challenging, public very strong with continued DOT funding maturity, private non-res positive with improving starts/bidding/backlog.

3% full-year volume growth guidance maintainedOctober 2025 supported full-year guide60% of IIJA funds still unspentPublic contract awards up 17% YoY in Vulcan markets vs 5% elsewhere

Gareth Schmoys · Lube Capital

Pricing growth ticked down sequentially from 7% YTD to 5% in Q3. What's driving this deceleration and how should we think about 2026 pricing in more detail?

Q3 pricing of 5% included 150 bps mix headwind from acquisitions which will continue to improve. 20% of sales were base work (lower price, lower cost, strong margins). January 1 price increases sent; conversations positive on fixed plants (40% of business). Bid work backlogs show acceleration. Improved demand in public and private non-res will support 2026 pricing.

Q3 pricing 5% with 150 bps mix headwind20% of Q3 volume from base workJanuary 1 price increase letters sent to 40% of business (fixed plants)Trailing 3-month backlog prices accelerating

Angel Castillo · Morgan Stanley

Projects and backlogs have been robust for years but conversion rates and shipment timing have disappointed. What gives confidence something has changed? How much is from data centers/semiconductors vs. other sectors?

Previously paused/postponed projects are now converting and shipping; projects rarely cancelled once in backlog. Non-res continues growing: September trailing 6-month starts up 7% in Vulcan markets, trailing 3-month up 8%. Private non-res sub-segments (office, data, stores, warehouses, institutional) all up. Beyond data centers (up 26%), also booked LNG, manufacturing, retail projects. Confidence high on 2026 volume growth.

Private non-res trailing 6-month starts up 7%Private non-res trailing 3-month starts up 8%Data center category up 26%All non-res sub-segments positive: office, data, stores, warehouses, institutional

Brent Thielman · D.A. Davidson

Is mid-single-digit 2026 price growth consistent with annual price increases planned? How much acquired volume in 2026 needs repricing via Vulcan way of selling?

Mid-single-digit pricing (5-5.5%) combines backlog bid work (60% of business) with fixed plant announced increases (40%). January 1 increases going into effect. Acquired volumes from Wake and Superior approximately 10 million tons; gap being made up by normal Vulcan market growth, particularly in Raleigh.

2026 pricing 5-5.5% mid-single-digit rangeBid work: 60% of businessFixed plant increases: 40% of businessJanuary 1 effective pricing increases

David McGregor · Longbow Research

On public infrastructure, break down contract awards by key markets and provide FY2026 DOT budget outlook detail.

Public momentum widespread across markets. Year 4 of IIJA showing maturation in state DOT spending (took 2 years to ramp). All top 10 DOTs up for FY26. Trailing 12-month highway starts up 17% in Vulcan states vs. 5% elsewhere. Only 40% of IIJA funds spent; long tail extends into 2026-2027+. Historically, reauthorization is larger than predecessor bill; infrastructure still needs substantial investment.

All top 10 DOTs up for FY26Trailing 12-month highway starts up 17% in Vulcan statesTrailing 12-month highway starts up 5% in other statesOnly 40% of IIJA funds spent to date

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 aggregates shipment growth and July run-rate validation. Q3 shipments of 64.7M tons grew 12% YoY, confirming the July double-digit pace. YTD growth is 3% (dragged by H1 weather comps); the FY guide of "similar" reflects tough Q4 weather comps, not a slowdown. Status: Resolved positively

Aggregates cash gross profit per ton trajectory. Q3 came in at $11.84 (+9% YoY), with TTM at $11.51 (+13% YoY) — the eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit TTM unit profitability compounding. Status: Resolved positively

Backlog conversion vs. backlog growth. Management explicitly stated that previously paused projects are now converting and shipping, with widespread non-res momentum (starts +7–8%, data centers +26%). Status: Resolved positively

Data-center revenue disclosure. Management cited data-center category +26% and 60M sq ft under construction / 140M proposed, with ~80% of planned data center projects within 30 miles of a Vulcan operation, but did not break out data-center tonnage or revenue dollars. Disclosure remained qualitative. Status: Continue monitoring

Residential commentary tone. Tyler Brown was told single-family "remains challenging" until affordability improves; management expects res to bottom sometime in 2026. Status: Continue monitoring

FY capex pacing. CFO reaffirmed ~$700M FY2025 capex; $442M YTD. Status: Resolved positively / on-track

What to watch into next quarter

Q4 aggregates shipment trajectory vs. the ~3% FY frame. Q4 faces tough weather comps; a Q4 shipment print materially below YTD pace would push FY EBITDA toward the $2.35B floor.

2026 volume framing — does "modest" firm to a specific number? Management called 2026 "modest growth in shipments and mid-single digit pricing." Watch whether Q4 introduces a 2026 volume range.

Aggregates cash gross profit per ton — does it hold above $11.84 in Q4 with base-work mix? The unit-economics story is the floor under the equity; a Q4 print below the $11.84–$11.88 band would break the trajectory.

Acquired-volume repricing on January 1. Management said letters are out and conversations are positive on the 40% fixed-plant book. Watch the realized Q4 pricing print and the early-Q1 2026 commentary on whether the 150bps acquisition mix drag begins to fade.

Data-center tonnage or revenue quantification. Two quarters in, Vulcan still hasn't put a hard tonnage or revenue number on the data-center pipeline. Continued qualitative framing would leave the magnitude of this tailwind a faith-based input to 2026 models.

California ready-mix divestiture close and proceeds redeployment. The October agreement to sell California ready-mix is expected to close in Q4 subject to regulatory approval; watch for sizing of proceeds and the M&A pipeline they fund.

Sources

Vulcan Materials Company Q3 FY2025 Earnings Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396009/000114036125039792/ef20057945_ex99-1.htm
Vulcan Materials Company Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript (October 30, 2025)
Tapebrief Q2 FY2025 VMC brief (prior-quarter guidance baseline)

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