WEC · Q1 2026 Earnings
BullishWEC Energy Group
Reported May 5, 2026
30-second summary
WEC opened FY2026 with $2.45 non-GAAP EPS on $3.43B revenue (+9.0% YoY), beating consensus by 5.2% on EPS and 0.4% on revenue, and reaffirmed FY2026 GAAP guidance of $5.51–$5.61 — landing in the middle of the 6.5–7% growth corridor management telegraphed last quarter off the $5.17–$5.27 FY2025 base. The substantive news is regulatory: the Wisconsin PSC verbally approved the Very Large Customer tariff on April 24 with ROE of 10.48–10.98% and a 57% equity ratio, removing the binary risk Tapebrief flagged last quarter on ~15% of the future rate base. The five-year capital plan also stepped to $37.5B (+$1B vs the $36.5B disclosed in Q3'25), and Microsoft brought its first Mount Pleasant data center online ahead of schedule.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2026
$2.45
+5.2% vs est.
Revenue
Q1 FY2026
$3.43B
+9.0% YoY
+0.4% vs est.
Free cash flow
Q1 FY2026
$0.40B
Operating margin
Q1 FY2026
28.5%
Key financials
Q1 FY2026| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Q4 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.43B | +9.0% | $2.54B | +35.4% |
| EPS | $2.45 | — | $1.42 | +72.5% |
| Operating margin | 28.5% | — | 17.8% | +1066bps |
| Free cash flow | $0.40B | — | — | — |
Guidance
FY2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $5.51–$5.61 (a material upgrade from prior FY2025 $5.17–$5.27); company initiates Q2 FY2026 EPS guidance ($0.76–$0.82) and quantifies five-year capex plan ($37.5B) while moderating full-year electric sales growth expectation to ~1.5%.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Next Quarter) | Q2 FY2026 | $0.76 to $0.82 | +25% to +35% YoY |
| Electric Sales Growth (Full Year) | FY 2026 | Around 1.5% | — |
| Five-year Capital Plan Investment | FY 2026–FY 2030 | $37.5 billion | — |
Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (Full Year) ($5.51 to $5.61)
Other KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 |
|---|---|
| Small commercial and industrial electricity consumption growth | 0.7% |
| Large commercial and industrial electricity consumption growth (ex-iron ore mine) | 2.7% |
| Residential electricity use growth | 0.2% |
| Weather-normal retail electricity deliveries growth (ex-iron ore mine) | 1.3% |
| Weather-normal natural gas deliveries growth (Wisconsin, ex-power generation) | -2.1% |
| Operating margin | 28.5% |
| Customers served | 4.8 million |
Management tone
Q2'25 record $28B plan → Q3'25 $36.5B and 7–8% CAGR → Q1'26 VLC settled, plan to $37.5B, execution confidence
The data center buildout has crossed from forward narrative to operating reality. Two quarters ago Vantage and Microsoft were named acreage and gigawatt potential. Last quarter they were anchors in a redrawn capex plan. This quarter management reported a Microsoft data center online ahead of schedule in Mount Pleasant and quantified 2.6 GW of forecasted demand through 2030 in southeastern Wisconsin, with 1.3 GW of Vantage demand layered on top. Microsoft has now purchased more than 2,200 acres in the I-94 corridor; Vantage has signed on for approximately 1,900 acres total, with the initial 670-acre phase under construction. From the call: "Microsoft brought its first data center online in Mount Pleasant ahead of schedule." That is the first hard delivery datapoint in this multi-quarter buildout, and it converts what was credibility risk into execution evidence.
Regulatory risk on the VLC tariff — Tapebrief's #5 watch item from last quarter — has been retired as a binary. In Q3'25 the VLC tariff was framed as the bridge between 11.3% asset base growth and 7–8% EPS growth, with an "early May 2026" order date carrying genuine downside if denied. Management can now state: "the Public Service Commission verbally approved the tariff structure on April 24th... approved the return on equity in the range of 10.48 to 10.98%, and the equity ratio of 57%." The ROE and equity ratio came in at the high end of typical Wisconsin authorizations — not just an approval, but a favorable one. The ~15% of asset base attributable to very large customers by 2030 is now anchored on a known economic framework.
Management confidence vocabulary has stepped up another notch from an already-elevated Q3'25 baseline. Last quarter "we expect to nearly double our asset base" was the high-water mark. This quarter management said "we have a highly high level of confidence in our ability to execute on our capital plan and continue our growth trajectory" — a superlative phrasing that's notably out-of-pattern for regulated utility communications. The shift is from confidence pending regulatory approval to confidence post-approval, which is structurally different.
The growth acceleration language got more specific. Last quarter introduced "acceleration starting in 2028" as a phrase. This quarter management explicitly mapped it to the band: "We expect that growth rate to accelerate to the upper half of the range starting in 2028" — i.e., 7.5–8% from 2028 onward versus the lower end (7–7.5%) in 2026–2027. That's a forward bet that the data center ramp drives a step-function in 2028 earnings, not a smooth compounding line.
One subtle moderation worth flagging: the near-term electric sales growth signal weakened. Last quarter the 2028–2030 sales growth band was raised from 4.5–5% to 6–7%. This quarter management reiterated FY2026 electric sales growth of ~1.5%. The two numbers are consistent (back-end-loaded acceleration), but the 1.5% near-term figure is the floor, not the headline — investors looking for in-year volume re-acceleration should temper that expectation.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Richard Sunderland · Truist Securities
How does the VLC tariff threshold reduction from 500 MW to 100 MW affect current and future customers, and how is it impacting economic development conversations in Wisconsin?
Management confirmed the 100 MW threshold does not affect current customers (Microsoft and Vantage), as no existing customers fall in that 200 MW range. They see potential modest positive impact for smaller data centers and no economic development concerns. The lower threshold demonstrates smaller data centers will pay their full share.
Nick Campanella · Barclays
Can management discuss execution capability on 4-5 GW additional capacity from already-approved sites, supply chain/equipment constraints, and expected announcements in Q3 given VLC finalization?
Management expressed confidence in execution capability to deliver all needed capacity and generation. Noted Q3 will include incremental additions to the plan but avoided specifics on timing and customer amounts, citing ongoing negotiations. Confirmed first Point Beach unit replacement will be in current plan with some funding for 2033 unit.
Michael Sullivan · Wolf Research
What is the likelihood of settling the Illinois rate case, and what is the expected cadence for future Illinois rate cases given the pipe retirement program ramp?
Management declined to predict settlement likelihood before seeing testimony, noting Illinois historically has been difficult to settle. However, they cited the recent QIP settlement as a positive step. Regarding cadence, management expects annual rate case filings in Illinois as the pipe retirement program ramps, particularly for 2027-2028 and ongoing.
Carly Davenport · Goldman Sachs
What is the status of construction at the Vantage site and timeline to end of 2027 in-service? Are there any transmission approval risks or delays, and what protections exist if timing slips?
Management reported no slippage at Vantage site with bi-weekly meetings. Transmission line approval expected in fall 2024. Noted VLC tariff fixes (nomination basis for transmission, full cost allocation) protect against subsidies and should not cause delays. Confident in execution timeline.
Paul Fremont · Leidenberg
For Point Beach replacement, should we assume the $2-2.5B per GW cost applies to a gas/renewable mix? Also, regarding non-regulated renewables near end of PTC, what uplift is expected in recontracting and how does this offset PTC expiration?
Management indicated Point Beach replacement will likely be a mix of renewables and CTs or combined cycle, all evaluated annually for cost effectiveness. On non-regulated renewables, they are evaluating safe-harbor repowering for another 10 years of PTCs and expect favorable recontracting economics given current renewable market values are higher than initial contract prices.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Q3 capex plan incremental additions: Management explicitly committed that the Q3 call will include "incremental additions to the plan." Watch whether any portion of the 2+ GW Port Washington optionality or the 4–5 GW from already-approved sites is formally pulled in — and whether the $37.5B base steps materially higher.
CCGT project formalization: Paris race units and Oak Creek CTs are named with late-2027 timing, but the broader $3.4B incremental gas commitment still lacks project-level granularity. Watch for a named combined cycle gas project with site, MW, and ISD on the Q3 print.
Q2 FY2026 EPS print vs. $0.76–$0.82 guide: First-ever explicit forward-quarter guide from management — a beat or miss will signal how tight the planning process is now that VLC is settled.
Wisconsin transmission line approval (fall 2026): Binary milestone for the Vantage end-of-2027 in-service date. A delay would cascade into the 1.3 GW deliverability claim.
Illinois rate case ICC staff testimony and settlement signals: Management cited the QIP settlement as a positive marker. Watch whether the January 2026 rate case follows a similar settlement path or proceeds to litigation, which would affect the cost-recovery timeline on the $200M+ pipe replacement program.
Non-regulated renewables safe-harbor repowering disclosure (Q3 call): Management deferred detailed economics to Q3 — the PTC repowering vs. recontracting math is non-core but material to EBITDA on the WEC Infrastructure side.
Sources
- WEC Energy Group Q1 2026 earnings release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/783325/000078332526000049/a2026q1wecearningsreleasee.htm
- WEC Energy Group Q1 2026 earnings call (prepared remarks and Q&A)
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