WEC · Q4 2025 Earnings

Neutral

WEC Energy Group

Reported February 5, 2026

30-second summary

WEC closed FY2025 with non-GAAP EPS of $5.27 — at the very top of the $5.17–$5.27 guide reaffirmed at Q3 — on full-year revenue of $9.80B (+14% YoY). The forward signal is more measured: the FY2026 EPS guide of $5.51–$5.61, reaffirmed (not newly issued) at this print, implies just 4.5–6.5% growth, sitting below the long-term 7–8% CAGR that management reaffirmed for the next five years — consistent with the prior telegraph that acceleration arrives post-2027, not 2026. With no transcript and no Q&A, the print is a clean delivery quarter with no incremental disclosure on the data center buildout, CCGT siting, or VLC tariff that the Q3 narrative was pivoting around.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.42

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.54B

+11.1% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

17.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.54B	+11.1%	$2.10B	+20.6%
EPS	$1.42	—	$0.83	+71.1%
Operating margin	17.8%	—	21.4%	-354bps

Guidance

Company delivered FY2025 EPS at the top of its prior guidance range and introduced FY2026 EPS guidance of $5.51–$5.61 (4.5–6.5% growth), while reaffirming its long-term 7–8% CAGR growth target.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2025	$5.17 to $5.27	$5.27	at the top of the prior guide range	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2026	$5.51 to $5.61	+4.5% to +6.5%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Operating Margin	17.84%
Adjusted Earnings Per Share	$1.42
Retail Electricity Deliveries Growth (YoY, ex-iron ore mine)	2.2%
Weather-Normal Electricity Deliveries Growth (YoY, ex-iron ore mine)	1.1%
Residential Electricity Use Growth (YoY)	3.5%
Small Commercial & Industrial Electricity Growth (YoY)	1.6%
Large C&I Electricity Growth (YoY, ex-iron ore mine)	1.6%
Natural Gas Deliveries Growth (YoY, WI ex-power generation)	11.5%

Management tone

No transcript was available for this print; tone analysis is deferred. The narrative arc through Q3 — capital plan from $28B to $36.5B, long-term CAGR from 6.5–7% to 7–8%, data center pivot from thematic to anchored — sets the bar this quarter had to clear. The press release alone does not clear or break that bar; it delivers FY2025 at the top of the range, reaffirms the 2026 guide of $5.51–$5.61 (consistent with the previously stated short-term EPS growth guidance), and reaffirms the long-term 7–8% CAGR without restating the 2028–2030 6–7% sales growth or the $36.5B capex plan in the headline disclosure.

Prior guidance included specific 2028–2030 sales growth (6–7%) and dividend growth (6.5–7%) targets; current disclosure narrows scope, focusing on consolidated EPS and long-term CAGR without restating interim operational guidance. Whether that's a presentation choice or a quiet de-emphasis is the question the Q1 transcript will need to answer.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

CCGT project specifics — Not addressed in the press release. With no transcript available, there's no update on whether the $3.4B incremental gas spend has been pinned to a specific CCGT project, site, or in-service date. Status: Continue monitoring

Microsoft Phase 2 / Port Washington optionality conversion — Not addressed in available disclosure. The press release does not break out a 2026 capex disclosure or update the 3.4 GW demand forecast, so the 2+ GW Port Washington / 700-acre Microsoft optionality remains outside the formally booked plan. Status: Continue monitoring

2026 EPS guidance — Resolved. The reaffirmed range is $5.51–$5.61, midpoint $5.56, implying 4.5–6.5% growth off the $5.27 FY2025 base. The midpoint sits at the low end of the brief-derived 7–8% implied corridor; the high end is below it. Status: Resolved negatively

General rate case filing (early 2026, test year 2027) — Not addressed on the print. Status: Continue monitoring

VLC tariff order (early May 2026) — Not addressed on the print. The order is still ahead of the next reporting cycle, so silence here is expected. Status: Continue monitoring

Equity issuance cadence — Partially addressed via the cash flow statement. FY2025 capex of $4.40B exceeded operating cash flow of $3.38B, producing negative FCF of approximately -$1.0B (FCF margin ~-10.4%). The gap was funded externally: $762M of net equity issuance, ~$1.1B net increase in long-term debt, and $807M increase in commercial paper. This is consistent with the heavy capital plan rather than a deterioration, but it confirms internal generation is not covering capex. Cadence and forward equity needs are a transcript question. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 transcript framing of the 2026 guide vs the 7–8% CAGR: Watch how management bridges the 4.5–6.5% 2026 growth to the long-term 7–8% target. If Q1 commentary holds the post-2027 acceleration narrative, the soft 2026 print is just cadence. If the bridge slips further right, the trajectory is moving.

Large C&I deceleration: Q4 large C&I (ex-iron ore mine) at +1.6% YoY vs Q3's +2.5% is the first directional softening in the segment that has to carry the hyperscale story. Watch Q1 for whether this is a one-quarter mix issue (mine, weather, timing) or the start of a slower ramp than the 1.3 GW Vantage / 2.1 GW southeastern Wisconsin pipeline implied.

CCGT siting: Still outstanding from Q2 and Q3 watch lists. A named project with site/MW/ISD in either the Q1 print or an interim regulatory filing remains the cleanest validation of the $3.4B gas commitment.

2026 capex disclosure with Port Washington / Microsoft optionality: The $36.5B plan was framed as conservative against optionality. Watch whether the Q1 disclosure pulls any portion of the 2+ GW Port Washington or 700-acre Microsoft optionality formally into the plan.

VLC tariff order (May 2026): 14% of rate base earns premium returns under this tariff per Q3 disclosure. The order lands in the Q1 reporting window. An adverse outcome materially impairs the bespoke-customer earnings premium.

Dividend growth restatement: Prior plan had 6.5–7% dividend growth explicitly; current guidance dropped the restatement, though the Jan. 22 dividend declaration was +6.7% YoY — consistent with the prior corridor in practice. Watch whether the Q1 transcript reiterates the 6.5–7% dividend growth target formally.

Equity issuance pace: FY2025 net equity issuance of $762M (vs $163M in FY2024) funded part of the capex gap. Watch Q1 for forward equity guidance against the multi-year capex ramp.

Sources

WEC Energy Group Q4 2025 earnings release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/783325/000078332526000011/a2025q4wecearningsreleasee.htm

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