WEC · Q3 2025 Earnings
BullishWEC Energy Group
Reported October 30, 2025
30-second summary
WEC delivered $0.83 GAAP EPS (+15% YoY) on $2.10B revenue (+12.9% YoY), beating the prior quarter's Q3 guide of $0.74–$0.80 by three cents at the high end and reaffirming the FY2025 range of $5.17–$5.27. The substantive news is the new five-year plan: capex stepped from $28B to $36.5B (+30%), demand growth from 1.8 GW to 3.4 GW, the 2028–2030 electric sales growth forecast lifted from 4.5–5% to 6–7%, and the long-term EPS CAGR raised from 6.5–7% to 7–8% through 2030 with acceleration starting in 2028. Management is now sizing capital around named hyperscale customers — Microsoft, Vantage/Oracle, Eli Lilly, Amazon — and explicitly framing dispatchable gas as the reliability backbone.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q3 FY2025
$0.83
Revenue
Q3 FY2025
$2.10B
+12.9% YoY
Operating margin
Q3 FY2025
21.4%
Key financials
Q3 FY2025| Metric | Q3 FY2025 | YoY | Q2 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.10B | +12.9% | $2.01B | +4.7% |
| EPS | $0.83 | — | $0.76 | +9.2% |
| Operating margin | 21.4% | — | 20.1% | +124bps |
Guidance
Q3 beat prior guidance; full-year FY2025 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $5.17–$5.27; company shifted emphasis to long-term growth acceleration post-2027.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
Actuals vs prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | Actual | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (GAAP) | Q3 FY2025 | $0.74 to $0.80 | $0.83 | +$0.03 to $0.09 above guide | Beat |
Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (GAAP) ($5.17 to $5.27)
Other KPIs
Q3 FY2025| Segment | Q3 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $449.6 million |
| Equity in earnings of transmission affiliates | $54.8 million |
| Interest expense | $223.6 million |
| Customers served | 4.7 million |
| 2025 EPS guidance | $5.17 to $5.27 |
Management tone
Q3'24 transition narrative → Q1'25 Vantage anchor → Q2'25 record $28B plan → Q3'25 $36.5B and 7–8% CAGR
The growth ceiling moved up, not just out. Last quarter management held the 6.5–7% long-term EPS CAGR while telegraphing a fall capex update; this quarter they explicitly lifted the long-term rate to 7–8% AND structured it with back-loaded acceleration starting 2028. From the call: "we expect to maintain our existing EPS growth rate of 6.5% to 7% on the compound basis And then accelerate starting in 2028 to the upper half of the new guidance range." That is a structural raise to the long-term earnings trajectory, not a one-quarter beat — the kind of move regulated utilities rarely make and almost never reverse without warning.
Data centers shifted from named opportunity to quantified plan anchor in one quarter. In Q2 Vantage's 3.5 GW was "outside the current 1.8 GW five-year forecast"; this quarter the demand plan is rebuilt around 3.4 GW total with "approximately 2.1 gigawatts" sourced from southeastern Wisconsin economic development. Critically, in Q&A management confirmed an additional ~1,200 acres at Port Washington (2+ GW potential) and ~700+ acres at the Microsoft site are still NOT in the plan — meaning the $36.5B capex is sized conservatively against optionality that could materially extend the runway.
Generation language pivoted from "all-of-the-above" to "dispatchable-first." Last quarter management framed coal extensions as bridge solutions while renewables ramped. This quarter the framing is reversed: "The key for reliability is dispatchable resources" — and management is sizing $3.4B of incremental natural gas spend against it. The renewables-and-batteries posture is preserved but no longer leads the sentence. This is a deliberate pre-positioning for regulatory filings on new CCGTs and CTs.
Confidence vocabulary is unusually direct for a utility. "We're in the early stages of the growth cycle" and "we expect to nearly double our asset base over the next five years" are quantified, committal claims, not the usual hedged regulated-utility outlook. The Q&A confidence was equally high — management gave year-by-year EPS growth breakdowns (2026: 6.5–7%, 2027: 7–8%, 2028–2030: ~8%) without hedging, and tied each step to a specific capex ramp ($7.7B in 2027).
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Char Perez · Wells Fargo
Seeking clarification on back-end loaded growth outlook post-2027, specifically how the CAGR shapes across the plan, whether it can be accelerated, and if there are opportunities to smooth growth rates.
Management provided year-by-year breakdown: 2026 at 6.5-7% growth, 2027 at 7-8%, and 2028-2030 at approximately 8% annually. Explained that capital plan ramps to $7.7B in 2027, resulting in 7-8% CAGR. Indicated there are acceleration opportunities pending approvals but emphasized prudence and execution capability.
Julian DeMoulin-Smith · Jefferies
Multiple questions: (1) How to interpret Microsoft Phase 2 expansion relative to plan—incremental or included; (2) Port Washington transmission project and whether 1.3B ATC project fully reflected; (3) Illinois capex ramp to $1.5B and legislative impact.
Management confirmed 2.1 GW southeastern Wisconsin demand (including Microsoft) is in plan; Microsoft's Fairwater data center expected online next year could scale to 2 GW alone, representing upside. Port Washington transmission (60% ATC ownership) largely factored but notes 1.3B may have additional upside beyond base plan. Illinois ramp from ~$90M/year to $500M by 2028 aligns with prior guidance; Illinois legislation unlikely to have significant impact.
Michael Sullivan · Wolf Research
Seeking bridge from 11% asset base growth to 7-8% earnings growth on slide 22; clarification on 14% bespoke customer rate base metric and whether it reflects earnings attached; junior sub and hybrid capacity runway.
Management explained 11.3% to 7-8% delta primarily driven by equity dilution and financing (~3% equity impact) with holding company drag. The 14% bespoke customer metric represents projected rate base under large customer tariff by 2030. Confirmed substantial runway remains on junior subordinated and hybrid securities with billions of dollars of capacity left under rating agency guidelines.
Andrew Wiesel · Scotiabank
Clarification on 2028-2030 growth rate (8% or 7.5-8%); bridge on capex increase from $8.5B stated increase to $8.1B when summing components; data center demand increase—breakdown between existing projects ramping versus new incremental projects.
Management clarified 2028-2030 is 8% on annual basis (not compound), which when compounded back from 2025 midpoint yields the stated 7-8% CAGR. Explained $8.5B capex increase includes gas distribution and other categories not individually called out (~$400M in items). Demand increase: 1.6 GW of 3.4 GW total is new, with 1.3 GW from Vantage Port Washington and significant portion from Microsoft in southeastern Wisconsin, plus Eli Lilly, Amazon, and residential load growth.
Sophie Karp · KeyBank
Clarification on data center announcements—what's in plan versus what's not; economics of 14% premium rate base under large load tariff versus rest of rate base.
Plan includes: 2.1 GW southeastern Wisconsin (Microsoft included), 1.3 GW Vantage/Oracle at Port Washington. Not in plan: additional ~1,200 acres in Port Washington (2+ GW potential), additional ~700+ acres at Microsoft southeastern Wisconsin site. On economics: 14% of rate base earns premium under large customer tariff; remainder earns current authorized returns in each jurisdiction. Large customers pay fair share without subsidizing others; tariffs kept separate by state.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
CCGT project specifics: Watch the Q4 print or any interim regulatory filing for a named combined cycle gas project with site, MW capacity, and in-service date. The $3.4B incremental gas spend implies a major CCGT commitment that hasn't been concretely sited yet.
Microsoft Phase 2 / Port Washington optionality conversion: 2+ GW at Port Washington and 700+ acres at the Microsoft site sit outside the $36.5B plan. Watch whether any portion of this gets formally pulled into the plan with the 2026 capex disclosure — that would be a second leg up on top of the just-raised guide.
2026 EPS guidance: Management telegraphed 6.5–7% growth for 2026 (off the FY2025 $5.17–$5.27 base, implying roughly $5.50–$5.64). Watch for the formal 2026 range and whether it lands at the upper end of that implied corridor.
General rate case filing (early 2026, test year 2027): This filing will set the regulatory framework for the 2027 capex acceleration. Watch for filing scope and ROE/equity ratio asks.
VLC tariff order (early May 2026): 14% of rate base earns premium returns under this tariff. An adverse outcome on the order would materially impair the bespoke-customer earnings premium that bridges asset growth to EPS growth.
Equity issuance cadence: Sullivan's exchange flagged ~3% equity dilution drag. Watch whether financing structure leans more on junior subordinated / hybrid securities (preserving common holder economics) or pure equity issuance.
Sources
- WEC Energy Group Q3 2025 earnings release, SEC filing — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/783325/000078332525000057/a2025q3wecearningsreleasee.htm
- WEC Energy Group Q3 2025 earnings call (prepared remarks and Q&A)
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