WMT · Q3 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Walmart

Reported November 20, 2025

30-second summary

Walmart delivered Q3 revenue of $179.5B (+5.8% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.62 — both above the prior-quarter guide ranges of +3.75–4.75% cc sales and $0.58–0.60 EPS — and raised FY26 guidance across all three headline metrics: sales (+105bps at the low end), adjusted operating income (+130bps at the low end, narrowed range), and EPS (+$0.06 at the midpoint). Critically, the FY operating income raise is what was missing from Q2's "sales-only" raise, and it lands without a repeat of the $450M Q2 casualty accrual. Management's press-release posture has shifted to "well-positioned for a strong finish to the year and beyond."

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2026

$0.62

Revenue

Q3 FY2026

$179.50B

+5.8% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2026

24.2%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2026

3.8%

Key financials

Q3 FY2026

Metric	Q3 FY2026	YoY	Q2 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$179.50B	+5.8%	$177.40B	+1.2%
EPS	$0.62	—	$0.68	-8.8%
Gross margin	24.2%	—	24.5%	-30bps
Operating margin	3.8%	—	4.1%	-30bps

Guidance

Walmart raised full-year FY2026 guidance across EPS, sales growth, and operating income growth following a strong Q3 beat on both top and bottom line; Q3 revenue growth of 5.8% YoY and EPS of $0.62 exceeded prior-quarter guidance.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	Q3 FY2026	$0.58 to $0.60	$0.62	+$0.02 above guide (at high end of prior range)	Beat
Net sales growth (constant currency)	Q3 FY2026	3.75% to 4.75%	5.8%	+1.05–2.05pts above guide	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	$2.52 to $2.62	$2.58 to $2.63	+$0.01 at low end, +$0.01 at high end; midpoint +$0.015	Raised
Net sales growth (constant currency)	FY2026	3.75% to 4.75%	4.8% to 5.1%	+1.05–1.35pts at low end, +0.35pts at high end; narrowed range, raised midpoint	Raised
Adjusted operating income growth (constant currency)	FY2026	3.5% to 5.5%	4.8% to 5.5%	+1.3pts at low end, flat at high end; narrowed range, raised midpoint	Raised

Segment performance

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026	YoY
Walmart U.S.	$120.7B	+5.1%
Walmart International	$33.5B	+10.8%
Sam's Club U.S.	$23.6B	+3.1%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026
Global eCommerce Growth	27%
Walmart U.S. eCommerce Growth	28%
Walmart U.S. Comp Sales (ex. fuel)	4.5%
Sam's Club Comp Sales (ex. fuel)	3.8%
Global Advertising Business Growth	53%
Walmart Connect Growth (ex. VIZIO)	33%
Membership Income Growth	16.7%

Profitability

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026
Return on Assets (ROA)	8.4%

Management tone

Q4-25 absorb-and-protect → Q1-26 tariff capitulation, OI guide withdrawn → Q2-26 wider ranges, claims shock, sales-only raise → Q3-26 confident broad raise, OI floor lifted

From "preserve maximum flexibility" to "well-positioned for a strong finish." Two quarters ago Walmart was hoarding upside against tariff and claims risk; this quarter the press release uses affirmative forward language for the first time in FY26. Anchor: "We're well-positioned for a strong finish to the year and beyond." The tangible expression is the operating income floor moving up 130bps while the ceiling holds — management is signaling that the downside scenarios that justified Q2's reaffirmation have not materialized.

From tariffs as a weekly-escalating cost layer to absent from the headline narrative. Q2 management said costs were rising "each week" and would continue through Q4. This quarter's press-release qualitative statements make no equivalent escalation reference — the framing is "another strong quarter," "eCommerce a bright spot," and "managing inventory well." Tariff and trade policy still appear in the forward-looking risk language, but the operational commentary has moved on.

From defensive flow-through ("sales up, OI flat") to mix-driven confidence. Q2's structural concern was that high-margin profit pools (ads +46%, membership +15.3%) weren't translating to OI growth because casualty and tariff costs were consuming the lift. This quarter ads +53% and membership +16.7% are accelerating into a quarter that did raise OI guidance. Walmart US gross profit rate +19bps with operating income growing 6.3% (faster than 5.1% sales) is the in-quarter proof that the mix lift is now reaching the OI line.

Q&A highlights

Kate McShane · Goldman Sachs

When will general merchandise growth become more balanced relative to consumables and alternative revenue businesses? What could gross margin expansion look like if GM growth normalizes?

Management expressed excitement about GM opportunities across stores, clubs, and e-commerce/marketplace channels. They noted GM is still experiencing low to mid-single digit deflation but is positive on comp growth driven by units. Seasonal strength in home, toys, and hard lines is evident. General merchandise is expected to improve in future quarters but will continue underperforming health/wellness in grocery until normalized purchasing cycles return.

GM deflation in low to mid-single digitsGM comp sales positive despite deflationStrength in home, toys, and hard line categoriesGM expected to improve in future quarters but remain under-indexed vs health/wellness near-term

Michael Lasser · UBS

What is Walmart finding about its ability to drive steady core business growth while reinvesting in price and wages? Are there diminishing returns to continued investment in alternative revenue streams?

Management stated they are investing appropriately and monitor price gaps and labor markets continuously. They maintain flexibility to adjust investment levels as needed. The company is balancing profit expansion with necessary business investments across capital (automation, remodels) and P&L (prices, wages). Management reiterated confidence in the financial architecture of operating income growing faster than sales (approximately 10% profit growth on ~5% sales growth), with execution and improved performance across core and newer businesses driving outperformance.

Operating income growing ~10% on ~5% sales growthCompany investing appropriately in prices and wages with flexibility to adjustStriking balance between profit expansion and reinvestmentFinancial architecture targets operating income growth faster than sales over multi-year period

Simeon Gutman · Morgan Stanley

Did top-line growth accelerate in Q3? What drove the underlying inflection—merchandising, marketplace, membership, or all of the above? Has Walmart inflected to a higher growth rate?

Management characterized the top-line momentum as very consistent across the first three quarters, with Q3 appearing slightly higher due to temporary tailwinds from hurricanes and port strikes. The underlying run rate remains consistent with prior quarters. Big Billion Days timing (earlier in 2024 vs. 2023) added ~60 basis points of growth to Q3 and will create a Q4 headwind. Management expects similar momentum continuing, with Q4 growth tempered by fewer calendar days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Top-line momentum consistent across Q1-Q3 underlying run rateBig Billion Days timing added ~60 bps to Q3; creates Q4 headwindTemporary tailwinds from hurricanes and port strike in Q3Fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas expected to moderate Q4 growth

Christopher Horvath · J.P. Morgan

Can you explain changes in 4Q operating income guidance vs. start of year (excluding FX)? Were there changes to U.S. top-line outlook? What about gross margin expectations given alternate profit pools? Could Q4 volume push U.S. e-commerce to profitability?

Management noted modest improvement in implied 4Q performance vs. prior guidance but no significant change to pre-quarter Q4 outlook. Shrink performed better than expected in U.S. and Sam's segments. Digital/newer businesses inflected higher in Q3, partly due to Big Billion Days timing. On e-commerce profitability, management stated they are not racing to profitability—the long-term game matters more. Mix decisions (1P vs. 3P), delivery speed investments, and customer preference will drive timing. They are confident e-commerce will be profitable but prioritize sustainable growth and customer experience over hitting profitability threshold in a specific quarter.

Modest improvement in implied 4Q operating income guidanceShrink better than expected in U.S. and Sam'sNo material change to U.S. top-line expectationsNot racing to e-commerce profitability; prioritizing customer experience and sustainable growth

Robbie Ohms · Bank of America

Can you break down upper-income consumer share gains across three dimensions: grocery vs. GM, price vs. convenience drivers, and stores vs. marketplace?

Management indicated share gains are "all-of-the-above" driven by both price and convenience. Upper-income consumers value both saving money and saving time, and Walmart can serve both simultaneously through omnichannel offerings. Price leadership drives share in core categories, while convenience (pickup/delivery) drives incremental share, especially in premium/quality categories (organic, grass-fed beef, gluten-free). Marketplace growth (22% e-commerce) is a significant driver, particularly in apparel, toys, and higher-quality items where Walmart historically had lower share. This represents a sustainable inflection point given investments in remodels, Walmart Plus membership stickiness, and omnichannel convenience.

Share gains driven by both price and convenience simultaneouslyUpper-income households represent 75% of share gainsMarketplace growth strong in apparel, toys, healthy/premium food categoriesE-commerce growth 22%; delivery densification improving unit economics

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the casualty/claims accrual recurs in Q3 or proves to be a one-time true-up. No comparable accrual was called out in the Q3 print, and the FY OI raise of +130bps at the low end is incompatible with a second large unplanned charge. Walmart US gross profit rate expanded 19bps and operating income grew faster than sales (+6.3% vs. +5.1%) — consistent with claims pressure abating. Status: Resolved positively

Q3 net sales actual vs. the +3.75–4.75% cc guide and Q3 operating income vs. the +3–6% range. Net sales +5.8% landed above the top of the sales range; adjusted EPS $0.62 came in at the top of the $0.58–0.60 EPS range. FY OI guidance was raised at the low end (+130bps) — exactly the "missing piece" flagged last quarter. Status: Resolved positively

Tariff cost-escalation cadence. The press release's qualitative statements contain no equivalent reference to weekly cost escalation; the operational narrative has moved to "strong finish" framing. Tariff and trade policy remain in the standard forward-looking risk factors, so the escalation narrative is absent rather than explicitly retired. Status: Continue monitoring

Advertising growth sustaining above ~40% and membership income above ~13%. Global advertising +53% (Q2: +46%) and membership income +16.7% (Q2: +15.3%) — both accelerated and remain comfortably above thresholds. Walmart Connect ex-VIZIO +33% (Q2: +31%). Status: Resolved positively

Global eCommerce growth above ~22% with continued qualitative profitability progress. Global eCommerce +27% (Q2: +25%, Q1: +22%) — three consecutive quarters of acceleration. Walmart US press-release commentary cites "improved eCommerce economics, aided by continued improvement in business mix" but provides no segment-level eCommerce contribution margin disclosure. Status: Resolved positively on growth; Continue monitoring on profitability disclosure

Walmart US comp ex-fuel staying above +4%. Comp came in at +4.5%, in line with Q2's +4.6% and Q1's +4.5%. Holding the line. Status: Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Walmart issues a Q4 operating income range or repeats the Q1-style withholding. This press release does not disclose a Q4 OI guide. A range with a tighter band than Q2's 300bps width would signal tariff uncertainty has fully cleared; another withholding would suggest the Q3 confidence boost was about absent claims accruals rather than tariff resolution.

Sam's Club comp ex-fuel — whether deceleration continues below +3%. Sam's stepped down from +6.7% (Q1) to +5.9% (Q2) to +3.8% (Q3), with ~120bps of the YoY compare attributable to lapping port-disruption benefit in the prior year. If Q4 prints below +3%, that's a club-channel-specific signal worth diagnosing beyond the calendar/lapping framing.

FY26 adjusted OI growth actual vs. the new +4.8–5.5% range. Landing in the upper half would let Walmart enter FY27 with momentum; landing at the low end would mean Q4 absorbed the Big Billion Days headwind and calendar compression as more than offsetting Q3's tailwinds.

Walmart International Q4 trajectory after the BBD timing reverses. Press release explicitly flags that Flipkart BBD timing benefited Q3 and will negatively affect Q4 International growth. Watch for whether ex-BBD underlying growth in Walmex, China, and Flipkart holds at double-digit cc rates.

Any disclosure of segment-level US eCommerce contribution margin. Walmart US press release language ("improved eCommerce economics") continues to imply progress without quantification. Voluntary disclosure would materially upgrade the investment case; continued qualitative-only framing confirms a multi-year patience window.

PhonePe IPO progression. Q3 OI absorbed a $0.7B non-cash share-based comp charge at PhonePe "in anticipation of a potential IPO." Watch for further disclosure on timing, structure, and whether additional comp charges flow through future quarters.

Sources

Walmart FY26 Q3 Earnings Release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000177/earningsreleasefy26q3.htm
Walmart FY26 Q2 Earnings Release (prior guidance baseline) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000120/earningsreleasefy26q2.htm

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