Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

WMT · Q4 2026 Earnings

Walmart

Reported February 19, 2026

30-second summary

Walmart delivered Q4 revenue of $190.7B (+5.6% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.74, capping FY26 at $713.2B (+4.7% reported / +5.1% cc) and $2.64 adjusted EPS — comfortably ahead of the prior FY26 EPS guide of $2.58–2.63 and at the high end of the +4.8–5.1% cc sales range. The forward setup is more interesting than the print: the FY27 EPS guide of $2.75–$2.85 implies +4.2% to +8.0% YoY vs. FY26 actual of $2.64, with operating income growth of +6–8% cc on net sales growth of +3.5–4.5% cc. The shape of the guide — margin lift on a decelerating top line vs. FY26 actual cc growth of +5.1% — signals management is hedging on the macro even as they step up the profit framing.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$0.74

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$190.70B

+5.6% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

24.0%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

4.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$190.70B	+5.6%	$179.50B	+6.2%
EPS	$0.74	—	$0.62	+19.4%
Gross margin	24.0%	—	24.2%	-20bps
Operating margin	4.6%	—	3.8%	+80bps

Guidance

Management raised FY2026 EPS guidance by $0.17-$0.22 and operating income growth, but lowered net sales growth guidance by 130-160 bps, signaling confidence in margin expansion offset by macro caution for the year ahead.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	Q1 FY2027	$0.63 to $0.65	-1.4% to +0.3% YoY
Net sales growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2027	Increase 3.5% to 4.5%	3.5% to 4.5% YoY
Operating income growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2027	Increase 4.0% to 6.0%	—
Interest, net	FY2027	Increase approximately $200M to $300M	—
Effective tax rate	FY2027	Approximately 23.5% to 24.5%	—
Capital expenditures	FY2027	Approximately 3.5% of net sales	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	$2.58 to $2.63	$2.75 to $2.85	+$0.17 to +$0.22 (midpoint +$0.19)	Raised
Net sales growth (constant currency)	FY2026	4.8% to 5.1%	3.5% to 4.5%	-1.3 to -1.6 percentage points	Lowered
Adjusted operating income growth (constant currency)	FY2026	4.8% to 5.5%	6.0% to 8.0%	+1.2 to +3.2 percentage points	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	YoY
Walmart U.S.	$129.2B	+4.6%
Walmart International	$35.9B	+11.5%
Sam's Club U.S.	$23.8B	+2.9%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Global eCommerce sales growth	24%
Walmart U.S. comp sales (ex. fuel)	4.6%
Walmart U.S. eCommerce growth	27%
Global advertising business growth	37%
Membership fee revenue growth	15.1%
Sam's Club U.S. comp sales (ex. fuel)	4.0%

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Return on Assets (ROA)	8.2%
Return on Investment (ROI)	15.1%

Management tone

No tone-shift analysis available for this quarter.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Omnichannel convenience as primary growth driver and competitive moatE-commerce profitability inflection through densification, membership, and advertising diversificationGeneral merchandise reacceleration due to improved assortment and pricing controlSupply chain automation ROI approaching 20% with significant runway below 50% of storesAlternative revenue streams (advertising, membership, fulfillment services, data) now >25% of operating incomeConsumer resilience and consistent behavior enabling mid-to-long-term visibility

Risks management surfaced:

Currency headwinds: 100 bps to sales growth, 150 bps to operating income growth in FY26 if current rates persistTariffs (not explicitly assumed in guidance; management stated ability to 'navigate' but acknowledged unpredictability)Macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer behavior volatility (acknowledged but not quantified)Leap Year and Easter timing shifts creating outsized Q1 comp headwindsVizio integration costs and transition expenses (150 bps negative impact to FY26 operating income guidance)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Walmart issues a Q4 operating income range or repeats the Q1-style withholding. Not applicable — Q4 has now been reported. FY26 adjusted OI grew +5.4% cc, landing near the top of the +4.8–5.5% guided range. The company issued Q1 FY27 operating income guidance at +4–6% cc, a 200bps band — tighter than Q3's reinstated 300bps width. That is the meaningful read: tariff-uncertainty band-width is narrowing back toward normal. Status: Resolved positively

Sam's Club comp ex-fuel — whether deceleration continues below +3%. Sam's came in at +4.0% ex-fuel, bouncing back above the +3% floor. Status: Resolved positively

FY26 adjusted OI growth actual vs. the new +4.8–5.5% range. Disclosed at +5.4% cc — near the top of the guided range. The FY27 framework being raised to +6–8% off that base is consistent with the strong finish. Status: Resolved positively

Walmart International Q4 trajectory after the BBD timing reverses. International revenue grew +11.5% reported / +7.5% cc in Q4 — holding strong cc growth despite the BBD reversal headwind flagged last quarter. China, Walmex, and Flipkart strength absorbed the timing drag. Status: Resolved positively

Any disclosure of segment-level US eCommerce contribution margin. Not addressed in the press release; segment-level eCommerce contribution margin remains undisclosed. Status: Continue monitoring

PhonePe IPO progression. The Q4 FY26 disclosures flag $722M in incremental non-cash share-based compensation expense in Walmart International tied to PhonePe modifying certain share-based payment plans "in anticipation of a potential initial public offering" — a tangible step forward from the qualitative IPO commentary previously. Status: Resolved positively (IPO preparations now explicit in the filings)

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY27 actual sales growth vs. the +3.5–4.5% cc guide. Walmart has beaten its own quarterly sales guide for three consecutive quarters. If Q1 prints at +5%+ again, the FY27 sales guide will be revealed as the same conservative posture as FY26's opening guide. If it prints inside the range, the deceleration narrative is real.

Q1 FY27 EPS vs. the $0.63–0.65 guide. Midpoint $0.64 implies ~+5% YoY vs. Q1 FY26's $0.61 — solidly positive and consistent with the FY27 framework. Watch whether the print lands above the range, as it has in recent quarters.

Global advertising growth trajectory — whether it stabilizes above ~30%. Q4 ads grew +37% including VIZIO; full-year +46%. If Q1 prints below +30%, the alternative-profit-pool thesis carrying FY27 margin expansion weakens materially.

Whether FY27 capex at ~3.5% of sales (vs. FY26's 3.0–3.5% framework) translates to incremental automation milestones. Quantification of automation-driven store productivity gains or fulfillment cost-per-unit metrics in subsequent prints would validate the capex step-up.

Tariff and policy commentary cadence. The press release flags "tariff and trade policies" as a risk factor but the FY27 outlook does not explicitly assume tariff changes. Watch for whether subsequent quarters flag tariff cost re-escalation similar to Q2 FY26's "weekly increases" language.

US eCommerce contribution margin specifically. A US-segment-level disclosure would resolve the multi-quarter watch list item definitively.

PhonePe IPO timing and structure. Q4 disclosed the $722M incremental share-based compensation charge tied to IPO preparation. Watch for further disclosure on timing, structure, and any additional charges in coming quarters.

Sources

Walmart FY26 Q4 Earnings Release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000032/earningsreleasefy26q4.htm
Walmart FY26 Q3 Earnings Release (prior FY26 guidance baseline) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000177/earningsreleasefy26q3.htm
Walmart FY26 Q1 Earnings Release (Q1 FY26 baseline for YoY math) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000069/earningsreleasefy26q1.htm

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