tapebrief
WYNN · Q4 2025

WYNN · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Wynn Resorts

Reported May 7, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue of $1.86B grew 9.2% YoY and beat consensus by 1.5%; non-GAAP EPS of $1.25 beat by 5.9% as Wynn Palace's prior-quarter volume story finally converted into a +23% revenue print. The headline strategic moves are the new $400-450M FY26 CAPEX guide tied to a $900-950M Enclave tower at Wynn Palace (capturing 99% occupancy demand) and a "modest" but unquantified delay to Wynn Al Marjan Island's prior Q1 2027 opening — a hidden cut management is working hard to soften.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$1.25

+5.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$1.86B

+9.2% YoY

+1.5% vs est.

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

15.2%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$1.86B+9.2%$1.87B-0.7%
EPS$1.25—$1.17+6.8%
Operating margin15.2%—14.7%+48bps

Guidance

Wynn substantially increased CAPEX guidance for 2026 to $400–450M while acknowledging a modest delay to Wynn Al Marjan Island opening, with details to follow.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Capital ExpendituresFY 2026$400 million to $450 million—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Wynn Al Marjan Island Opening
FY 2026
Q1 2027 opening expectedWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026YoY
Wynn Palace$0.659B+23.0%
Wynn Macau$0.33B—
Las Vegas Operations$0.662B+5.9%
Encore Boston Harbor$0.206B-1.7%

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Casino Revenue$1,177.2M
Rooms Revenue$290.4M
VIP Table Games Win % (Wynn Palace)3.11%
Mass Market Table Games Win % (Wynn Palace)26.6%
Las Vegas Table Games Win %25.2%
Las Vegas ADR$592

Profitability

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Adjusted Property EBITDAR$562.4M
Total Debt Outstanding$10.52B

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 hold-rate drag and structural-claims defense → Q3 premium-customer growth validation and UAE base-case sandbag → Q4 Macau volume validation with hold reversal and UAE timeline crystallization → Q1 Macau revenue conversion with Enclave commitment and UAE timeline retreat.

The UAE narrative has reversed direction. Through Q2 and Q3 management tightened the framing from generic "2027" to "Q1 2027" with $450-550M of remaining equity quantified and rooms-on-sale signposted to late Q3 / early Q4 2026. This quarter the calendar specificity was pulled: "We do expect a modest delay in our opening timeline, and I expect that we will quantify that in the coming months." The repeated, deliberate use of "modest" — "I use the word modest very intentionally because that's what we believe it will be" — is the linguistic tell that management is managing the delay perception more than the delay itself. The reaffirmed conviction ("we remain as convicted in the project as we were before the conflict began") is sincere but does not restore the quarter-specific commitment.

The Macau capital story shifted from constraint-management to growth-capture. Three quarters ago Wynn Palace's 99% occupancy was framed as a ceiling; last quarter management announced the Chairman's Club 3x footprint expansion as a within-footprint response; this quarter management committed $900-950M to an Enclave 432-suite tower physically connected to the east entrance. Management's own framing of the underwrite is the cleanest justification yet: "when you're at 99% occupancy, you're not making a speculative bet by adding rooms. You're clearly capturing demand that already exists and that you're currently turning away." That language inverts what would normally be a speculative resort-expansion debate.

The Las Vegas tone moved from margin-management defense (Q4) to operating-leverage confidence. Q4 framed Vegas as a margin-discipline story carrying OPEX above the $4.3-4.5M/day guide. Q1 reframed it as "three big operating leverage levers in our business, gaming market share, RevPAR and Retail Sales and all of them did extremely well in Q1 and continue to do extremely well into Q2... we took share in January, February, and March." The +5.9% revenue print and 25.2% table win — at the top of the expected band — back the language.

The hedging vocabulary is more concentrated on UAE than at any prior point in this coverage. "It's far too early to tell", "realistic that the picture could shift", "based on conditions today, these challenges are manageable" — all UAE-specific. Vegas and Macau commentary contain almost no hedging. Confidence is being selectively deployed by market visibility.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Modest Wynn-Marjan delay but project momentum sustainedUAE long-term tourism fundamentals unchanged despite geopolitical risksLas Vegas luxury consumer and premium segment remain robustMacau expansion via Enclave addresses 99% occupancy at Wind PalaceOperating leverage across gaming, RevPAR, and retail performing wellCapital return prioritized with increased dividends and share buybacks

Risks management surfaced:

Geopolitical situation in Middle East could evolve negatively, impacting Wynn-Marjan timelineLogistical and shipping challenges to UAE region, shipping rate increasesLabor wage pressures in Boston market ongoingFood and beverage COGS inflation in Las VegasLas Vegas facing difficult year-over-year comps from record 2025 performance

Q&A highlights

Steve Wazinski · Steeple

What does Enclave do or not do to win Macau? Is there cannibalization risk between Enclave and Wynn Macau? How did visitation during the holiday period translate to GGR?

Management stated there is no cannibalization risk as table allocation is managed weekly and Wynn Macau has plenty of table capacity beyond peak events. The Chairman's Club was expanded for top customers. Holiday period drop was up year-over-year; management emphasized they are not levered to visitation metrics like competitors but rather focus on high-end customers.

Table allocation managed weeklyWynn Macau expanded Chairman's ClubHoliday period drop up year-over-year99% occupancy at Wynn Macau

James Hardiman · Citi

Given construction pace constraints in Ras Al Khaimah identified at analyst day, how is the company thinking about hotel development pacing and other projects being greenlit in the Middle East? Could incremental licenses be affected by recent geopolitical situation?

Management is starting pilings on GNU in a few weeks; construction has continued but not at the exact same pace. Management is not monitoring other projects weekly and doesn't underestimate the market's ability to build quickly. Timing shifts (2027-2030 to 2028-2030) don't matter over a 10-20 year horizon. On additional licenses, management acknowledged uncertainty and stated they are thinking about it internally but don't have answers yet.

GNU pilings starting in a couple of weeksEvaluating over 10-20 year periodsNo definitive position on additional gaming license prospectsUncertainty acknowledged on geopolitical impacts on regulatory approvals

Trey Bowers · Wells Fargo

What is management seeing in promotional competition in Macau and expectations for the year? Is the Enclave project TAM-dependent or capacity-constrained given Wynn Macau runs at 99% occupancy?

Promotional intensity has not changed substantially; management stays disciplined and understands reinvestment needs to the decimal point. On Enclave, management does not believe the project is TAM-dependent; rather, it is capacity-constrained at 99% occupancy, making it an easy underwrite to add incremental rooms to the existing Wynn Palace facility.

Promotional environment unchanged substantiallyStay disciplined on reinvestment metricsWynn Macau at 99% occupancyEnclave is incremental tower, not full resort

Steven Pozzella · Deutsche Bank

In Las Vegas, occupancy was down; does management want occupancy to grow or is it comfortable with ADR gains? What early reads on rate during the LV room remodel? Has marketing approach to UAE property changed?

Management manages rate and occupancy to maximize EBITDA, not ADR for its own sake; lower occupancy can allow cost modulation (e.g., restaurant hours). Rates are holding during Encore remodel (12-month project, 6 floors); management expects to increase rates on weekends/peak periods but doesn't need midweek rate increases given mid-80s pricing. UAE marketing approach unchanged; tourism authorities are sophisticated marketers; gaming proposition remains unique and unchanged by geopolitical situation.

Las Vegas occupancy down slightlyEncore 12-month remodel with 6 floors offlineLas Vegas mid-80s pricingRate holding during remodel

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Macau hold normalization and revealed Q4 margin — Wynn Palace VIP hold normalized to 3.11% (within the 3.1-3.4% expected band, vs. 2.84% in Q4). Wynn Palace revenue printed $659M (+23% YoY), confirming the underlying Q4 volume base was real and the hold drag was mechanical.
Resolved positively
Chairman's Club ramp signal — Press release and Q&A did not break out Chairman's Club-attributable gaming/F&B uplift. Management noted Wynn Macau (where the Chairman's Club expansion sits) was roughly flat YoY and that holiday-period drop was up YoY, but did not isolate the Chairman's Club contribution.
Continue monitoring
Al Marjan rooms-on-sale milestone — The Q4 commitment to late Q3 / early Q4 2026 rooms-on-sale has effectively been withdrawn alongside the timeline slippage. Management said a quantified update will come "in the coming months.".
Resolved negatively
Vegas 2026 EBITDAR drag from Encore Tower — Management clarified the remodel is 12 months and 6 floors but still did not provide a dollar EBITDAR sensitivity. Rates are holding through the disruption; weekend rate increases are expected. Fourth consecutive quarter without dollar quantification.
Continue monitoring
Buyback vs. Al Marjan funding — Press release excerpt does not isolate Q1 share repurchases. Management did newly quantify FY26 CAPEX at $400-450M and committed $900-950M to Enclave — total debt of $10.52B is the cleanest current capacity marker.
Not resolved
AI wealth-effect quantification — No follow-up from management on the Q4 "AI-generated wealth visiting properties" claim. Reverted to qualitative color around machine-learning offers as a Vegas market-share lever.
Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Quantified Al Marjan delay — Management committed to quantifying the delay "in the coming months." Watch whether Q2 produces a specific revised opening quarter and whether the $450-550M residual equity contribution gets updated.

Macau Q2 revenue conversion sustainability — Wynn Palace VIP hold landed at 3.11% (low end of band) and still produced +23% growth. Watch whether Q2 hold reverts higher and what Wynn Palace revenue prints look like on a normalized hold base.

Enclave EBITDAR underwrite — Management committed $900-950M but has not disclosed a target EBITDAR contribution or stabilization timeline. Watch whether Q2 or an investor-day refresh produces a sized-return framework.

Encore remodel revenue/EBITDAR drag emerges — The 12-month, 6-floor project is now underway. Watch Q2 for the first quarter where Las Vegas room revenue clearly absorbs the displacement, and whether weekend rate gains materialize as guided.

Wynn Macau decoupling from Wynn Palace — Wynn Palace +23% vs. Wynn Macau roughly flat is a widening divergence. Watch whether the Chairman's Club drives Wynn Macau re-acceleration in Q2 or the gap structurally persists.

Total debt trajectory vs. CAPEX ramp — $10.52B at quarter-end, $400-450M FY26 CAPEX guide, $900-950M Enclave commitment, $450-550M residual UAE equity. Watch whether buybacks compress or are paused as the capital stack steps up.

Sources

  1. Wynn Resorts Q1 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174922/000117492226000034/ex991wrlq12026pressrelease.htm
  2. Wynn Resorts Q1 2026 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges as referenced)

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