WYNN · Q4 2025 Earnings
CautiousWynn Resorts
Reported February 12, 2026
30-second summary
Revenue of $1.87B grew just 1.5% YoY as unusually low VIP and mass hold across Macau cost ~$16M+ in EBITDA, masking a 48% YoY surge in total Macau VIP turnover — the volume signal investors should anchor on. Las Vegas declined 1.6% with EBITDA margin still at 35%, and management refined Wynn Al Marjan Island's opening from generic "2027" to "Q1 2027" — a small but meaningful tightening that lines up with rooms going on sale late Q3/early Q4 2026.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q4 FY2025
$1.17
Revenue
Q4 FY2025
$1.87B
+1.5% YoY
Operating margin
Q4 FY2025
14.7%
Key financials
Q4 FY2025| Metric | Q4 FY2025 | YoY | Q3 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.87B | +1.5% | $1.83B | +2.2% |
| EPS | $1.17 | — | $0.86 | +36.0% |
| Operating margin | 14.7% | — | 16.9% | -222bps |
Guidance
No quantitative guidance issued this quarter; company provided only qualitative updates on Al Marjan Island construction timing.
No quantitative guidance issued this quarter; company provided only qualitative updates on Al Marjan Island construction timing.
Segment performance
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Wynn Palace | $0.596B | +5.9% |
| Wynn Macau | $0.371B | +2.1% |
| Las Vegas Operations | $0.688B | -1.6% |
| Encore Boston Harbor | $0.21B | -1.2% |
| Casino Revenue | $1,143.3M | — |
| Rooms Revenue | $305.1M | — |
Platform metrics
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Wynn Palace VIP Turnover | $5,230.7M |
| Wynn Palace Mass Market Table Games Win % | 21.8% |
| Las Vegas ADR | $611 |
| Las Vegas REVPAR | $520 |
Profitability
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Adjusted Property EBITDAR | $568.8M |
| Macau Total Adjusted Property EBITDAR | $270.9M |
Management tone
Narrative arc: Q2 hold-rate drag and structural-claims defense → Q3 premium-customer growth validation and UAE base-case sandbag → Q4 Macau volume validation with hold reversal and UAE timeline crystallization.
The Macau narrative has now traveled a full cycle. In Q4 management surfaced the underlying volume story directly: total Macau "VIP turnover up 48%, MAS drop up 18%" attributed to "investments in hosting teams and player development, not credit expansion." That distinction — quality of growth, not quantity — is the cleanest defense of Macau franchise health management has offered. Per the Lozinski exchange, management indicated normalized Q4 2025 Macau margin would have been ~30% (vs. the 31.5% Q4 2024 Macau comparable), framing the hold drag explicitly.
UAE language tightened materially. Prior framing was "tower at sixty-first floor, opening 2027" and later "pouring concrete for the remaining few floors." Q4 specified "Q1 2027" with rooms-on-sale signposted to late Q3/early Q4 2026 and $450-550M of remaining equity contribution sized explicitly. Management is moving from "we'll get there" to operational milestones with quantified residual capital — the de-risking arc the watch list has been tracking since Q2.
The AI commentary is new and substantive. Management told Macquarie they are "already seeing customers with AI-generated wealth visiting properties" — the first time the AI-wealth-creation tailwind has been claimed as a current effect rather than a thesis. Combined with internal use of "personalization and machine learning reinvestment modeling" affecting retention, this is a measurable shift from no commentary in Q2/Q3 to live commercialization claims in Q4.
Vegas tone shifted to margin-management defense. Asked about long-term margin expansion, management said it "does not manage to margins per se" but to top-line and disciplined OPEX. That is a hedge — Q4 Vegas printed -1.6% with OPEX per day at $4.6M vs. a $4.3-4.5M target. The Encore Tower disruption hits in 2026 with 80,000 lost room nights and no EBITDAR sensitivity provided, despite this being the third consecutive quarter management has been asked.
Q&A highlights
Dan Paltzer · JP Morgan
How should investors think about Vegas growth path in 2026 given Encore Tower disruption, limited booking visibility outside group/convention, and strength in high-end customer segment?
Craig emphasized Vegas is performing at historically strong levels with positive gaming volumes and group business pacing well. Despite 80,000 room nights out of service from renovation, management expects to recover some through rate increases and feels confident about continued strong performance given strong group pace and competitive positioning.
Sean Kelly · Bank of America
What is driving the significant VIP volume growth in Macau (48% YoY turnover increase), and is there a shift between VIP and mass premium mix impacting margins? Also, provide details on the new Chairman's Club expansion.
Craig attributed VIP growth to investments in hosting teams and player development, not credit expansion. Margins were pressured by unusually low VIP and mass hold, not fundamental business shift. Chairman's Club expansion triples the space to nearly 100,000 sq ft with gaming, F&B, entertainment, cigar lounge; opening by Chinese New Year with final government approval just received.
Chad Bynum · Macquarie
What AI and technology improvements internally are expected to impact revenue or margins in 2026, and are you seeing wealth effect from AI-related wealth creation already affecting your customer base?
Craig confirmed AI-generated wealth is already driving customer visits to properties. On internal technology, management is focused on OPEX efficiency (where gains expected over several years) and customer delight through personalization and reinvestment modeling improvements. Also addressing GEO (generative engine optimization) for hotel sales discoverability as SEO transitions.
Trey Bowers · Wells Fargo
What are the signposts and timeline for Wynn Al Marjan openings (rooms going on sale, revenue opening), and how dependent are base/outperformance cases on future supply constraints being resolved in the UAE market?
Management expects rooms to go on sale late Q3/early Q4 2026. Base case is NOT dependent on additional hotel supply coming online before opening, but outperformance cases require incremental room capacity. Additional supply expected to come online shortly after Wynn opens. Transportation programs and day-trip strategy will mitigate near-term supply constraints.
Lizzie Dove · Goldman Sachs
How should we think about long-term Vegas margin expansion possibilities given strong current margins? Is there still normalization to go, or is rate-over-occupancy strategy sustainable?
Craig stated management does not manage to margins per se, but instead focuses on top-line revenue growth (market share in gaming, ADRs) and disciplined OPEX management. Rate-over-occupancy strategy is intentional and allows for operational optimization. No margin guidance provided.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Macau hold normalization and revealed Q4 margin — With $16M+ of low-hold drag quantified across Macau and management indicating normalized margin would have been ~30%, watch whether Q1 2026 hold reverts to the 3.1-3.4% expected band and what the implied "clean" Macau EBITDAR run-rate is. A normalized hold on the Q4 volume base would imply meaningful upside vs. the reported $270.9M.
Chairman's Club ramp signal — Opening Chinese New Year 2026 with 3x footprint expansion. Watch for any Q1 commentary on early gaming/F&B uplift relative to the prior Chairman's Club contribution, and whether it accelerates the mass-premium mix that has been driving Macau volume.
Al Marjan rooms-on-sale milestone — Management committed to late Q3 / early Q4 2026 for rooms going on sale. Watch the Q1 and Q2 calls for any timeline drift, and whether opening ADR / mix commentary surfaces as the date approaches.
Vegas 2026 EBITDAR drag from Encore Tower — Third consecutive quarter without a dollar sensitivity. Watch the Q1 print for either a quantified range or the first quarter where the 80,000-room-night drag begins showing in revenue/EBITDAR.
Buyback vs. Al Marjan funding — With $450-550M of remaining UAE equity contribution sized, watch the cadence of Q1 repurchases vs. capital calls as Al Marjan accelerates.
AI wealth-effect quantification — Management claimed AI-generated wealth is "already" driving visits. Watch whether this gets framed as a measurable customer-cohort contribution in 2026 or remains qualitative color.
Sources
- Wynn Resorts Q4 2025 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174922/000117492226000007/ex991wrlye2025pressrelease.htm
- Wynn Resorts Q4 2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges as referenced)
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