tapebrief
WYNN · Q1 2026

WYNN · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Wynn Resorts

Reported August 4, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue of $1.86B grew 6.8% YoY and non-GAAP EPS of $1.24 beat on adjusted property EBITDAR margin expansion to 30.6%. The signal of the quarter is Al Marjan Island's opening now specifically dated to September 2027 — roughly nine months later than the "Q1 2027" commitment from two quarters ago — paired with a ~$600M total project budget increase (~$240M Wynn share) and a revised residual equity range of $525–$650M. Wynn Palace continued its re-acceleration (+21.1%) on elevated mass hold of 29.7% ("one of the highest we've ever seen," per Sean Kelly), while Las Vegas flattened to +0.7% and Encore Boston Harbor extended its decline streak.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.24

+26.5% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.86B

+6.8% YoY

+1.5% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

16.0%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$1.86B$1.74B+6.7%$1.86B+0.0%
EPS$1.24$1.09+13.8%$1.25-0.8%
Operating margin16.0%15.2%+80bps15.2%+80bps

Guidance

Strong Q2 beats on both revenue and EPS with 6.8% YoY growth; no FY2026 guidance issued despite momentum, while Al Marjan Island opening now specifically targeted for September 2027.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
EPS (Non-GAAP)Q2 FY2026—1.24Beat consensus estimate of $0.98 by 26.5%Beat
RevenueQ2 FY2026—1.857+1.5% above consensus estimate of $1.83BBeat

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Wynn Al Marjan Island Opening
FY2027
2027 with modest delay expectedWithdrawn — no replacement—Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Capital Expenditures ($400 million to $450 million)

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Wynn Palace$0.653B$0.54B+20.9%
Wynn Macau$0.351B$0.344B+2.0%
Las Vegas Operations$0.643B$0.639B+0.6%
Encore Boston Harbor$0.209B$0.216B-3.2%
Casino Revenue$1.175B$1.052B+11.7%
Rooms Revenue$0.29B$291.1M-0.3%
Food and Beverage Revenue$0.264B$261.1M+1.3%
Entertainment, Retail and Other$0.127B—-5.1%
Wynn Palace Adjusted Property EBITDAR$201.5M——
Las Vegas Adjusted Property EBITDAR$215.2M$234.8M—

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Wynn Macau Mass Market Table Games Win %17.1%——
Las Vegas Table Games Win %23.9%——
Encore Boston Harbor Table Games Win %18.1%——

Profitability

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Adjusted Property EBITDAR$568.3M$552.4M—
Adjusted Property EBITDAR Margin30.6%——
Operating Margin16.0%——

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q3 premium-customer growth validation and UAE base-case sandbag → Q4 Macau volume validation and UAE timeline crystallization → Q1 Macau revenue conversion, Enclave commitment, and UAE timeline retreat → Q2 UAE timeline concretely dated with peak-season framing AND a ~$600M budget increase.

The UAE story this quarter combined three disclosures that need to be read together: (1) firm September 2027 opening, ~9 months later than the original Q1 2027 commitment; (2) total project budget increased by ~$600M, roughly half attributable to regional-conflict disruption (materials, shipping, extended pre-opening/capitalized interest); (3) residual equity for the remainder of the project including JNU stepped up to $525–$650M, with ~$240M of that being Wynn's incremental share of the budget increase. The current-quarter framing was operationally rational (per the Dan Paltzner exchange, September 2027 allows "sufficient punch-list completion and operations handover") and the Lizzy Dove exchange added the peak-season silver lining ("entry into the beginning of the peak season" with "no phased openings"). Billings emphasized that continued spend beats slowdown ("stopping or slowing that down has ramifications that are far more costly"). But the combined timeline + budget move is a materially harder update than the "modest delay" language from last quarter.

The Macau tone has completed its own arc from constraint-management to demand-capture confidence, though this quarter's Palace growth print benefited from favorable mass hold. Three quarters ago Wynn Palace's 99% occupancy was framed as a ceiling; two quarters ago management committed to the Enclave tower (open 2029) to expand that ceiling; this quarter management also announced construction commencement on the Events Center and Theater at Wynn Palace (expected 2028) after receiving the revised land contract in July. The World Cup / seasonality question was handled with unusual candor — disentangling the two is "difficult" — and management cited $3.4M VIP-normalized average EBITDA per day plus recovery in back-half July into early August. That admission of incomplete visibility is a consistent honesty pattern worth noting.

The Las Vegas tone shifted from Q1's operating-leverage confidence back toward margin-management defense. Q2 printed +0.7% and management quantified Encore renovation opportunity cost at $2–4M revenue per quarter through H1 next year on peak days only — the first dollar-scaled quantification of the remodel drag after four consecutive quarters of analysts asking for one. Rooms revenue at -0.3% suggests the disruption is now real; the question is whether Q3 shows further deceleration.

The absence of any FY2026 revenue or EPS guide despite a clean beat is itself a tone signal. In prior briefs management offered qualitative "feel good about 2026" comfort; this quarter's press release is confined to project-level statements. Prior-quarter conviction language has thinned to construction status.

Q&A highlights

Sean Kelly · Bank of America

What are the strategic pros and cons of the September 2027 UAE opening date given regional uncertainty, and what needs to happen for that date to remain firm?

Management confirmed the date is firm and based on demonstrated UAE resilience to geopolitical pressure. They emphasized the conflict intensity toward UAE has eased, Dubai Airport is growing capacity, and normal consumer/supply chain activity continues. Opening is well over a year out, construction proceeds at normal pace, and confidence in the market remains high.

September 2027 opening date confirmed as firmRegional conflict intensity directed at UAE has eased since last callDubai Airport continuing to grow flight capacityNormal supply chains and day-to-day activity in Dubai

Dan Paltzner · J.P. Morgan

Why is September 2027 the right opening time for Wynn al Marjan Island, and what is driving the post-World Cup uptick in Macau demand—pent-up demand or event calendar impact?

September 2027 allows sufficient punch-list completion and operations handover to operate the property as intended. For Macau, management attributed recovery to normal seasonal cadence returning after World Cup disruption during an already seasonally weak period (post-Golden Week). Disentangling World Cup from normal seasonality is difficult, but results show 3.4M VIP normalized EBITDA per day in the quarter and recovery in back-half July into early August.

September 2027 timing allows complete construction and operational handoverWorld Cup impact difficult to isolate from normal seasonality3.4M VIP normalized EBITDA per day in quarterRolling volumes and mass troughed during tournament, recovered in back-half July and into early August

Stephen Grambling · Morgan Stanley

What is the net impact of the World Cup on Vegas, and what is the revenue impact from Encore renovation room unavailability?

World Cup impact in Vegas was less pronounced than in Macau. July showed solid drop, low hold, but RevPar grew nicely as tournament ended. Encore renovations estimated to cost $2-4M per quarter in foregone revenue through first half of next year on peak days only.

World Cup impact on Vegas was less pronounced than MacauJuly: solid drop, low hold, RevPar growthEncore renovation opportunity cost: $2-4M revenue per quarter through H1 2025

Lizzy Dove · Goldman Sachs

How should investors think about the revenue and EBITDA ramp cadence for Wynn al Marjan opening in September, and are other Ras Al Khaimah hotel projects keeping pace?

Opening in mid-to-late September is entry into peak season. Management confirmed no phased/soft openings; all amenities open simultaneously. Other hotel projects are a mixed bag, but management reiterated reliance on own room base for underwriting both base and high cases, so published projections remain valid.

September opening = entry into peak seasonNo phased openings; all amenities open togetherUnderwriting relies heavily on own room base, not other RAK projectsBase and high-case projections stand

John DeCree · CBRE

How has management's thinking evolved on customer segmentation for UAE opening given strong domestic demand in RAK during conflict, and which customer funnels will be addressed at opening vs. over time?

Management expects robust regional/locals pipeline at opening (evidenced by current RAK visitation growth) and healthy global pipeline long-term. Which customer funnel is prioritized near-term depends on state-of-play at opening, but management has 'levers to pull' and won't change core product. Demand is expected to exceed supply given monopoly position.

Robust regional/locals pipeline expected at openingHealthy global customer pipeline expected long-termMonopoly gaming position means demand should exceed supplyCustomer funnel prioritization flexible based on market conditions at opening

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Quantified Al Marjan delay — Management specifically dated the opening to September 2027, confirmed by Sean Kelly's exchange as firm. This represents ~9 months later than the original Q1 2027 commitment from Q4 2025 — a materially larger slip than the "modest" language implied last quarter. Alongside the date, management increased the total project budget by ~$600M (~$240M Wynn share) and updated residual project equity (including JNU) to $525–$650M.
Resolved negatively
Macau Q2 revenue conversion sustainability — Wynn Palace produced +21.1% YoY growth on $653M revenue with Adjusted Property EBITDAR of $201.5M, but mass table win of 29.7% was at the high end of the historical range (Kelly: "one of the highest we've ever seen") — growth was partially hold-aided rather than clearly hold-independent. Underlying volume was mass drop +3% while VIP turnover was down materially. The volume story is real but the Q2 print flatters it. Status: Resolved with caveat
Enclave EBITDAR underwrite — The press release and Q&A did not produce a target EBITDAR contribution or stabilization timeline for the Enclave tower. Management reiterated Enclave is "not a speculative bet" given current occupancy levels and confirmed construction commences before year-end with opening expected 2029.
Continue monitoring
Encore remodel revenue/EBITDAR drag emerges — Management quantified the Encore opportunity cost at $2–4M revenue per quarter through H1 of next year on peak days only. Las Vegas revenue decelerated to +0.7% (from +5.9% in Q1) and rooms revenue printed -0.3%.
Resolved negatively
Wynn Macau decoupling from Wynn Palace — Wynn Palace +21.1% vs. Wynn Macau +2.1% — the gap widened rather than closed. The Chairman's Club expansion (which completed last quarter) has not visibly moved Wynn Macau's growth trajectory.
Resolved negatively
Total debt trajectory vs. CAPEX ramp — Total current and long-term debt at June 30, 2026 was $10.72B ($5.76B Macau, $877.8M Wynn Las Vegas, $3.49B WRF, $598.9M consolidated retail JV). Cash of $1.57B ex-WML short-term investments. Q2 buyback was $75.0M (741,098 shares at $101.20 avg), with $326.1M authorization remaining. FY26 Macau expansionary CapEx revised to $350–$400M (down from $400–$450M). Status: Resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Al Marjan cost/equity trajectory — With the ~$600M budget increase and updated $525–$650M residual equity now on the table, watch whether Q3 refines the split between conflict-driven and non-conflict cost components (management said "roughly half" is conflict-attributable) and whether draws on the construction loan (currently $1.4B) accelerate.

Wynn Macau re-acceleration or structural gap acceptance — The Chairman's Club expansion has now had two full quarters to show up in Wynn Macau growth; +2.1% suggests it hasn't. Watch whether Q3 shows any inflection or management repositions Wynn Macau as a structurally lower-growth asset.

Palace mass hold normalization — Q2 mass hold of 29.7% was elevated. Watch whether Q3 shows mean reversion toward the ~22–24% range, which would test how much of the +21.1% print is durable volume vs. hold.

Las Vegas Q3 deceleration — With Encore remodel drag now sized at $2–4M revenue per quarter on peak days through H1 next year, and Q2 already printing +0.7%, watch whether Q3 goes negative on the top line. Management already flagged unusually low July hold.

Encore Boston Harbor structural decline — Four consecutive quarters of decline (-3.0% in Q2). Watch whether Q3 produces the first management comment on whether this is competitive dynamics, market softness, or asset-specific issues requiring capital.

FY2026 qualitative posture — This quarter's press release avoided the "feel good about 2026" comfort language present in prior calls. Watch whether Q3 restores forward comfort language.

Buyback cadence with capital stack stepping up — Q2 buyback was $75M with $326M authorization remaining; Enclave, Events Center/Theater, and the stepped-up UAE equity all pull on the same capital stack. Watch Q3 repurchase pace against that expanded call.

Sources

  1. Wynn Resorts Q2 2026 Press Release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174922/000117492226000051/ex991wrlq22026pressrelease.htm
  2. Wynn Resorts Q2 2026 earnings call Q&A and prepared remarks (analyst exchanges as referenced)

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